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Jul 10 5 tweets 1 min read
When judging the effect of the recently delivered HIMARS are having on the battlefield remember this; both the Ukrainians and the relatively few Russians that can speak freely are saying the same thing - they're devastating and the Russian military simply has no counter for them.
They're also saying that relatively sophisticated Russian air defence systems like the S300 and the S400 that "should" be able to intercept HIMARS rockets (on paper) cannot.
And they're saying that the Russians have suffered significant losses in move men and materiel. And don't underestimate the effect on morale of previously safe areas now being incredibly dangerous, subject to an unstoppable HIMARS attack at any time.
This is what the Ukrainians have achieved with between 4-6 systems.

They're getting a minimum of 6 more HIMARS and 9 M270 MLRS systems (which has twice the firepower of each HIMARS system) over the next month. That's a huge amount of firepower.
And let's think about the strategic picture...

This kind of incredibly accurate, virtually unstoppable long range firepower makes a Russian strategy of "digging in and annexing" occupied territory virtually impossible. It fundamentally changes the strategic calculation.

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More from @JimmySecUK

Jul 11
HIMARS is back in acton: another Russian ammo dump just exploded incredibly dramatically.🔥🇺🇦
Ukrainian sources are naming the blast location as Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, this is not confirmed as yet. ImageImage
Another video of the exploding Russian ammo dump... 🔥
Read 5 tweets
Jun 29
Norway and the UK are collaborating to send an additional three M270 GMLRS systems to Ukraine.

The UK will donate an additional three Royal Artillery M270 GMLRS systems to Ukraine which will then be replaced by systems from Norwegian stores.

🇬🇧🤝🇳🇴🤝🇺🇦
regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/nor…
Note that Norway cannot donate systems directly to the Ukrainians because their M270 MLRS systems have been in storage since 2005 and need significant refurbishment/upgrades.
My article tracking Western heavy materiel support to Ukraine has been updated to include the British/Norwegian pledge of 3 extra GMLRS systems and the delivery of an unknown number of Italian Iveco VTLM Lince infantry mobility vehicles.
jamesrushton.substack.com/p/western-heav…
Read 4 tweets
Jun 27
A Russian missile just hit a crowded shopping centre in Kremenchuk.

Ukrainian sources on the ground fear there are many civilian dead and wounded.
Per @OllieCarroll - "Ukrainian authorities report that over 1000 civilians were inside".
Zelenskyy:

"The occupiers launched a missile strike at shopping center. There were more than a thousand civilians. The mall is on fire, rescuers are extinguishing fire, number of victims is unimaginable."
Read 11 tweets
Jun 13
Very interesting conversation with a senior figure from Ukraine's defence ministry this morning, largely discussing Western military assistance and the progress of the war.

Key takeaway; what you have sent is great, and we're extremely grateful, but it's not enough. 1/
Western towed howitzers like the M777 - extremely capable equipment.

Self propelled howitzers like the CAESAR and the
AHS Krab - even better. They have been incredibly effective at striking into the Russian deep rear and executing counter-battery fire. They need more. 2/
This is because self propelled guns can operate close to the front lines; being more mobile and offering more protection for the crews than towed systems.

They also need more precision guided munitions for their 155mm guns. The M982 Excalibur has been particularly effective. 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 17
At the start of the month I wrote this article for New Lines Institute on the subject of Western weapons deliveries to Ukraine.🇺🇦👇

This is going to be an ongoing thread to keep track of continuing confirmed heavy weapon pledges or deliveries to our Ukrainian friends...🧵
An unknown number of YPR-765 armoured personnel carriers supplied by the Netherlands. An upgraded version of the M113 with improved armour and mobility.

Confirmed delivery by the Ukrainian General Staff and by visual evidence below.
An unknown number of Polish AMZ Dzik-2 infantry mobility vehicles supplied by Poland.

Delivery visually confirmed by this footage showing Ukrainian forces training with the vehicles.
Read 10 tweets
May 4
From Islamist extremist to far-right, conspiracy theory sharing, pro-Putin extremist.🙃
He's also apparently some sort of 9/11 truther now, claiming "Bin Laden would have found it very difficult to plan from inside a cave".
And he also seems to think the British government is "encouraging Brits to go fight with Azov" (they aren't) and wondering why Brits fighting with Ukraine don't have they're citizenship stripped because they're "worse" than ISIS.
Read 4 tweets

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