When judging the effect of the recently delivered HIMARS are having on the battlefield remember this; both the Ukrainians and the relatively few Russians that can speak freely are saying the same thing - they're devastating and the Russian military simply has no counter for them.
They're also saying that relatively sophisticated Russian air defence systems like the S300 and the S400 that "should" be able to intercept HIMARS rockets (on paper) cannot.
And they're saying that the Russians have suffered significant losses in move men and materiel. And don't underestimate the effect on morale of previously safe areas now being incredibly dangerous, subject to an unstoppable HIMARS attack at any time.
This is what the Ukrainians have achieved with between 4-6 systems.
They're getting a minimum of 6 more HIMARS and 9 M270 MLRS systems (which has twice the firepower of each HIMARS system) over the next month. That's a huge amount of firepower.
And let's think about the strategic picture...
This kind of incredibly accurate, virtually unstoppable long range firepower makes a Russian strategy of "digging in and annexing" occupied territory virtually impossible. It fundamentally changes the strategic calculation.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Olenya air base in Murmansk and Belaya airfield in Irkutsk have both come under attack as part of a large scale and apparently successful Ukrainian operation targeting Russian air bases.
Ukrainian FPV drones can be seen flying directly into Russian Tupolev Tu-95 strategic bombers, which can be seen exploding and burning fiercely.
Multiple Russian Tupolev Tu-95 strategic bombers can be seen ablaze at Olenya air base, viewed through the camera feed of a Ukrainian FPV drone.
This is undoubtably the successful Ukrainian strike against Russian strategic aviation of the war so far.
Just FYI: you cannot "hack" a pager into a) detonating or b) producing a blast akin to if that pager case was packed with a small amount of high explosive.
You could potentially compromise a pager or any other device so it produces a relatively violent fire when it is being charged; that is very, very different to what we're seeing in the videos coming out of Lebanon.
This is one of the few non graphic videos of the detonating pagers in Lebanon. This is categorically a case someone (almost certainly Mossad) placing a small amount of plastic explosive in the cases of these pagers.
Air raid in Kyiv; a group of cruise missiles are approaching the city, now monitoring groups are reporting potential launches of “Kinzhal” aero ballistic missiles.
The subway is full of people taking shelter. If you’re in Kyiv I suggest taking shelter or at the very least, not being outside - expect impacts or falling debris.
Explosions now audible in Kyiv. Air defence is working on incoming Russian missiles. Stay in shelter.
Been speaking to a large number of Ukrainian military and civil society figures over the past days. The general consensus is that the situation on the front is going to get worse before it gets better.
A lot of blame can be laid on some of the ridiculous restrictions imposed on Ukraine by Western partners. But my sources also identified significant issues with command and control and basic competence in the Ukrainian military leadership.
As one of my sources put it, the Ukrainian military has currently regressed to fighting like a Soviet army. "And a small Soviet army isn't going to defeat a large Soviet army", they said.