Hannah Ritchie Profile picture
Jul 11, 2022 7 tweets 5 min read Read on X
It's #WorldPopulationDay and the UN has just released its new World Population Prospects for 2022.

At @OurWorldInData we've built a new population data explorer for you to explore it all: ourworldindata.org/explorers/popu…

🧵👇A thread with some of the highlights:
@OurWorldInData The UN projects that the world will pass 8 billion by November this year.

However, population growth rates are slowing significantly, and have dipped below 1% in the last few years.

1/
@OurWorldInData In its medium fertility scenario, the UN now projects that the world will hit peak population in 2080 at 10.4 billion people.

In its previous release, growth continued to 10.8 billion and did not peak before 2100.

2/
@OurWorldInData The global fertility rate is now around 2.3 births per woman.

This is a fall from 5 births per woman in 1950.

Two-thirds of the world population live in countries where the fertility rate is below 2.1 – the replacement ratio.

3/
@OurWorldInData The UN expects that India will overtake China next year (2023) to become the most populous country in the world.

Its previous release expected this to happen in 2028.

4/
@OurWorldInData The new estimates include excess deaths of approximately 15 million across 2020 and 2021 – much higher than the 5.4 million confirmed COVID-19 deaths.

This figure is similar to figures published by the WHO, and a little lower than those from The Economist.

5/
@OurWorldInData You can read these findings in our article here: ourworldindata.org/world-populati…

Thanks to @lucasrodesg, @MarcelGerber9 and @redouad for the great teamwork on this.

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More from @_HannahRitchie

Sep 14, 2023
I've heard several people say that renewables are not driving an "energy transition". It's really just an "energy addition".

This makes it sound like fossil fuels have been business-as-usual, and we've stuck renewables on top.

I think there is a better way of framing this...🧵
In rich countries it really is an "energy transition".

Renewables are replacing fossil fuels in the electricity grid.

And as EVs replace petrol, and heat pumps replace gas (which are in early stages), the broader energy mix will transition too.

1/ Image
In low & middle income countries, energy consumption is growing strongly, so all of the lines are going up.

However, I think "energy addition" is the wrong phrase here. It's more like "fossil energy displacement".

Growth in fossil fuels would be ⬆️⬆️ without renewables.

2/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 4, 2023
Terrible of the @guardian to publish this ill-informed, out-dated article on EVs.

Why does it build so much of its coverage around the climate crisis, then continually publish nonsense articles that undermine real solutions to address it?

theguardian.com/commentisfree/… Image
@guardian Most of the claims in the article are wrong.

You only have to look at the first, on the CO2 emissions of EVs vs. petrol/diesel cars.

Yes, emissions are higher during the production of an EV but this very quickly pays off when you start driving it.

... Image
@guardian Many have covered this in detail:

carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-…

sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/ev-fossil-ca…

iea.org/data-and-stati…

Over its life course, the emissions of EVs are lower (how much lower depends on the electricity mix). As the world decarbonises, this will get even better.

...
Read 5 tweets
Mar 29, 2023
What impact have national greenhouse gas emissions had on global warming?

A new paper by @Jones_MattW & team at @gcarbonproject quantifies each country's contribution to global mean surface temperature rise.

I've added this data to @OurWorldInData. Here are some highlights 👇 Image
@Jones_MattW @gcarbonproject @OurWorldInData First, the team calculcates contributions to temperature rise using cumulative emissions of CO2, methane & nitrous oxide since 1850.

They convert this into carbon-dioxide equivalents using the GWP* method.

Includes emissions from fossil sources, agriculture & land use

1/
@Jones_MattW @gcarbonproject @OurWorldInData Here are 5 countries with the largest contributions to global temperature rise.

🇺🇸 USA: 0.28°C
🇨🇳 China: 0.2°C
🇷🇺 Russia: 0.1°C
🇧🇷 Brazil: 0.08°C
🇮🇳 India: 0.08°C

2/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 22, 2022
It's easy to be skeptical that countries are taking little action on climate change.

This isn't true.

Looking at the shift in our trajectory in just a few years tells a different story.

I looked back at the past 6 years of @climateactiontr projections 👇
@climateactiontr 2016.

Policies in place would have taken us to 3.3 to 3.8°C by 2100.

Country pledges to 2.5 to 2.7°C.

1/
@climateactiontr 2017.

National policies: 3.1 to 3.7°C

Country pledges: 2.6 to 3.2°C

2/
Read 11 tweets
Dec 20, 2022
🆕 @f_spooner and I have published a major new redesign of our work on Biodiversity on @OurWorldInData 🐘🦁

A day after the world sealed a new deal on how to limit biodiversity loss & reverse it.

Explore all our data and articles in one place: ourworldindata.org/biodiversity Image
@f_spooner @OurWorldInData This redesign includes a block of Key Insights on the topic 👇

1/ Image
@f_spooner @OurWorldInData A spot where you can find all of our research and writing 👇

2/ Image
Read 4 tweets
Dec 5, 2022
Eating locally is not an effective way to reduce the carbon footprint of your diet.

This is despite a recent paper in @NatureFoodJnl claiming that 'food miles' make up 20% of food emissions.

In my latest Substack post I explain why this is wrong: hannahritchie.substack.com/p/food-miles
@NatureFoodJnl Some of the key points:

The new paper by Li et al. (2021) claimed that 'food miles' were 3.5 to 7.5 times higher than previous studies.

This is only because they redefined 'food miles' (to include things that are definitely not food miles).

1/
@NatureFoodJnl Their own results do not even support 'eating local makes a big difference'

They modelled a scenario where all countries got *all* of their food domestically.

Food emissions were reduced by just 1.7%.

They actually showed the opposite: it was very ineffective...

2/
Read 5 tweets

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