Thread by @kamilkazani

Since 2014 Rheinmetall could not be building Mulino *directly*. They had to "leave" the project to a Russian company, which they would provide with supplies to finish construction. An additional layer was added to this project. And my sources say this layer was stealing too much

https://twitter.com/NextLifter/status/1547595650677673986

According to my sources, the main problem was institutional. Once Rheinmetall could not manage the Mulino construction directly, it was delegated to a Russian company Гарнизон. Which maximised short term profits for its management. That's why it is of lower quality than planned

When discussing sanction policy many underestimate how difficult it is to do stuff. Let's say Putin can't get sth from Europe. "Then he could just buy it through X". No, it's not "just". You can bypass sanctions by adding layers & proxies. But it will be very much more expensive

Furthermore, these layers and proxies are led by sentient and intelligent beings. Who know they have leverage now due to a very peculiar situation. But that can't last for long. What do you do? You maximize your *short term* profits. Often at the cost of quality

That's about the planning horizon. German managers wanted to build a lasting partnership (=long term planning). Russian managers apparently wanted to profit & run. That's why Rheinmetall was interested in building Putin the best training ground in the world and proxies were not

Many see "corruption" as a major institutional problem of Russia. I disagree. (Too wild) "corruption" is a symptom of short term planning. If you know that every decision and regulation can be capriciously overturned at any moment, that you can be preyed upon by Siloviki...

... that Kremlin can give you all the guarantees and still break them, then why would you even plan for a long term? Are you dumb? You just maximize your profit, and store it abroad. You also move your family abroad asap. You move yourself abroad as soon as you can

The elephant in the room is that (most of) Russian administrative-corporate class sees the country more as a hunting ground. Hence the short term planning. So Putin has no choice but to massively rely on foreigners with a culture incentivizing the long term planning. The end