1- #Connectingthedots Today the NY Fed survey came out, which surveys local manufacturing businesses. The headline number, which is based on *current* view, looks benign. So "all is good"? 
2- That's the lazy view - there is plenty more detail! Businesses are also asked about their views 6 months from now, and that outlook is dire:
New Orders on a mult-year low indicate very weak business going forward:
New Orders on a mult-year low indicate very weak business going forward:
3- Prices paid drop visibly. This has historically been a lead indicator for CPI. It corroborates my view that inflation will likely come down markedly soon
4- And expectations for a shortened employee workweek imply layoffs, rather than further wage increases
5- Another set of forward-looking datapoints that suggests a fast weakening economy and lower inflation, and why I continue to be positive on bonds, particularly the long end #TLT #ZROZ
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