Thread by @rapplerdotcom

36 Years with @beacupin & @mlq3: The birthing pains of a new administration twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@beacupin @mlq3 This episode of 36 Years is a primer of sorts for the first State of the Nation Address.

We talk to historian Manolo Quezon about the beginnings of the second Marcos presidency, the delicate balance of power in Malacañang, and his picks for the Cabinet so far.

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: Each administration tries to set a tone and a pace when it starts. It’s a bit different when you have a restoration regime, we’ve had 3: Macapagal-Arroyo, Aquino and Marcos.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: They have their traditions to uphold whether they want to or not. Sometimes part of the restoration, those who are coming back, they do not want others to be reminded of what came before.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: The Marcos myth was strong because it was cultivated to achieve this restoration. The whole idea is the Marcos administration is supposed to have a strong Cabinet, a very self-assured Chief Executive, supposed to hit the ground running.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: In this case, it practically did none of these things except for one aspect which was the economic team.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: It was very careful because the expectations were very high, there could have been economic repercussions from the start so it made a point of having a sober, credible economic team.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: It has Estrada written all over it because many of the names that were relied on came from the Estrada administration, very UP-centric, technocratic. That particularly UP sense of being politically adept while technocratically accomplished.

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: The rest however was interesting because there were some major gaps that remained in the Cabinet, and this has not happened before.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: Even in revolutionary situations, administrations were very careful to fill the Cabinet. This is the first time in living memory where these gaps exist.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: It shows you that either the president has to deal the hand that he was dealt, and you can read it one way that people are not eager to sign on right away, or you can read it in a more positive way; that the president is in no rush to fill those gaps.

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: The Palace will say the President is in no rush because he’s calm and he knows what to do and everyone will read it as a big question mark, ‘why is it so hard considering that you have such a big mandate?’

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: This is the third highest mandate ever achieved in an election in our country, why is it not being filled?

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: One of the most boring but very obvious ways an administration sets its tone is through the first issuances or orders, very interestingly, the first 2 weren't even by the President, but by the Executive Secretary, it was a lot of housekeeping.

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: When the President finally started issuing his first issuances, there was nothing earth-shaking, no order creating any sort of fact-finding commission, it was a lot of housekeeping.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: Abolishing the position of Cabinet Secretary, which was a function created under Benigno Aquino III, basically reminding everyone that the Executive Secretary is going to be a very central, powerful figure who enjoys the President’s confidence.

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: We’re turning it in the way it has been for the longest time, but the fact that you had to make these reminders on paper shows you what was happening over the previous 12 years. It’s an administration that is doing it by the book as it has been done for the longest time.

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: The only one of interest was a new presidential assistant was created that reports to Lagdameo, this is a special advisor for the military and the police.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: It’s a very conservative but thorough and very conscious housekeeping.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: A government wants to be driving the headline, the major headline of course was that the new president got a second round of COVID, that immediately puts a stop on everything.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: Slowly but surely, the gaps are being filled, you have a non controversial appointment for DENR, either they usually have an advocate or a fixer. You had someone for DOE, turning into a question mark, someone who has held the job previously and not controversial either.

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: We are all going to be making a big mistake if we assume that both the candidates and the public have a longer frame of mind than just the past 3 or 6 years.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: This was a pandemic election, therefore the framework, kung paano tayo babangon, kung saan tayo in 2019 bago nagsimula ang pandemic.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: There is a lot of nostalgia feels, there is a pitch made to the old loyalists, but there is also an appeal made to the new loyalists that have been convinced since the 1990s and 2000s.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: Who were not even around when Marcos Sr was in power but who can be sold these cocktail ot Tallano gold, your parents were happy, which counts for a lot.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: If you look at the survey, everyone was just looking at the point of view of looking back to life as normal as it was before the pandemic, that is where you needed the unity message.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: There is a restoration aspect, there are trends that keep on coming back, one of them is that an election is a referendum. If you have a name like Marcos, which is polarizing, it’s a referendum on are they still going to be on the defensive?

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: Are they receiving a forgive and forget? Are they receiving a kind of approval that erases everything? An election of this magnitude can be considered absolution for what happened in the past.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: There is an element of restoration and revalidation, it happened for the Macapagals; Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo made the core of her campaign a sort of return to all the old loyalists who were still there.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: The Aquino campaign did it as well, it’s very much a revalidation, and it’s the same for the Marcoses.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: As much as the media tried to make something out of it, no one freaked out when one of the first things they did was to have a birthday party for Imelda. It’s very Pinoy to be saying ‘panahon na namin’ and everyone understands that.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: It’s not a full on restoration because it could have only happened with the help of the Dutertes. Everyone at the very least understands that it requires an endorsement from the Dutertes for the Marcoses to have a chance in places that never forgot like Mindanao & Visayas

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: If anyone can claim that they made this election, personally I think it’s Gloria for bringing the Dutertes and the Marcoses together, but the Dutertes can say they own a big chunk of this. We haven’t seen this merger since before Martial Law.

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: Gloria, she was a confluence of our own national history, she can talk to the Marcoses and Dutertes on a very unique level, as a former president to former president Rodrigo Duterte, as a presidential child to two other presidential children like Bongbong and Sara.

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: As a speaker, party-leader, as someone from Iligan because her childhood was in Iligan, that is uniquely hers. This is a very small club and she’s the senior member of it now.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 @mlq3: You have to understand kung ano ang malapit sa sikmura ng botante. I do believe that every election is about feel, driven by which candidate is more likeable and provoke more positive feels.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: At the time when everything felt wrecked because of the pandemic, the feels people wanted were positive ones.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: When the first Marcos ad came out, I thought everyone else was in trouble, it did not precisely have to say anything except project the feels that people were craving after years of bad news.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: The Marcos campaign only did 3 ads, the story and imagery started with Bongbong and the pinwheel and then with Sara. The story was clear, beautifully done. The opposition under Leni couldn't decide what its message was, and tried 8 different messages in 3 or 4 months.

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: This [Marcos-Duterte tandem] was the most consequential tandem since Cory and Doy.... In politics, imagine how mind boggling it is that a candidate of hope and unity is Ferdinand Marcos Jr. just because they were the first out with a clear message

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: It was classic, and in many ways, the first test of the fitness of a president is the campaign they run. You can say Marcos passed it with flying colors. They did everything right, they didn’t even say anything and that requires a lot of discipline.

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: They could pivot quickly, tuwing may daplis or mali, they would either unleash trolls, or pivot and say the right thing that next day so hindi tumatagal ‘yung story.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 On how to balance remembering history and focusing on the present

.@mlq3: It's supposed to come from the institutional memory that veterans have. One thing that never changes is a coalition, many of which can’t stand each other, but they have been brought together to succeed.

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: Winning is easy, the hard part is running a show. There is a huge number of jobs to fill, one estimate I saw was that the president fills about 10,000 presidential appointees. The previous administration never even got to finish it.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: You have to pay your debts when you come in at the same time you have to come up with a game plan and that’s not often part of it because you are waging a campaign day by day, why are you going to be thinking about the next years?

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: There’s the fact that the president ultimately has to decide a lot of things personally, and it boils down to what that president decides to spend their time on.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: There will be some parts of the government they will be interested more in and others they care much less about, and of course everyone in the government thinks that their part is the most important thing for the future of the nation.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: What people are trying to figure out is that if the Aquino years were sort of the last gasp of the old relationship between public opinion and officials, where there is a give and take and the officials feel that what the public and the media feel matters.

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: That has now been replaced by an attitude that it’s all a matter of slicing and dicing to isolate those who disagree and pump up those who agree.

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: Objectively, you don’t need media anymore because you can create your own media, if you can create your own media tailor-fit to so many public, you just have to do a little something every so often to keep them all happy because they don’t talk to each other anymore.

@beacupin @mlq3 .@mlq3: The Marcoses have now achieved their restoration, but they’re more divided at this moment than they ever had been since they went to exile, and how is that going to play out with everyone noticing it?

#36Years:

@beacupin @mlq3 And that's a wRap! Watch #36Years here: