Dave Collum Profile picture
Jul 20, 2022 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
My twitter feed is filled with trading logic—volume, liquidity, Fed policy, short positions, commitment of traders, sentiment indicators, Bollinger Bands, Garage Bands,...The bear will be done when the stocks are cheap on an absolute (historical) scale. Nikkei 2.0 is coming.
BTW-They call the '29 crash the Babson Break after Roger Babson who called it...continuously...for about five years. That stopped clock was finally right, and we got the Great Depression.
The markets weren't even slightly cheap in 3/20. They were below fair value for about 2 weeks in '08-'09. They were dirt cheap in '81 after 15-year inflation-adjusted ravaging of –75%. Bullard says they are more credible than Volcker. He is an idiot. They all are.
The Nikkei always recovers they said. Buy the dips they said. Japan will dominate the global economy they said. Just buy and hold they said. It was correct for over 4 decades, and then...
It is Ponzi finance. I have us comfortably 2x overvalued by 25 metrics. Here are four paths back to fair value (let alone below it). I'm rooting for (a). The Fed is trying to achieve (d).
This is what a sharp equity correction looks like. Notice how for decades it was nearly all dividends. By the end, the boom-bust cycle is clear as can be...
And one of my favorites (made using ChemDraw). Those arrows represent the time that the inflation-adjusted market wobbled around but went precisely nowhere. They are 45-75 years long...
I know y'all have your telltale indicators, but as @RampCapitalLLC said to @StockCats (or vice versa and paraphrased), "We all use the same ones."
Of course, the authorities have our backs...
I have mapped out my retirement to enjoy the simple pleasures...like this guy...

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More from @DavidBCollum

May 10, 2024
1. Listening to a great discussion @JackFarley96 and @DiMartinoBooth about decaying economic conditions. Their presentation was fine but it elicited some thoughts in, of course, my own words...

2. We have witnessed insanely loose monetary policy that was irresponsible. For those worried about the Fed making a mistake, relax: that ship has sailed. They have monumentally fucked up non-stop.
3. Powell has a number of problems to deal with that includes inflation, a potential for huge deflation, and massive speculation. He said there would be "pain". He said it three different times. If you think we have felt pain, your parents raised a pussy.
Read 11 tweets
Sep 4, 2022
1/ Just had a spontaneous chat with a deli/convenience store owner. He worked there as a kid and then worked his way into full ownership. The deli used to be open 24/7. Not any more. He can't get the employees to staff it. He had some poignant opinions on this.
I asked him the usual question: "where are all the workers?" He said the system was completely broken, referring to it as broken "for a generation."
3/ Noting with few exceptions that are family owned businesses--Sal's Pizzeria staffed by his five-family-member staff working 70 hrs per week--the small business owners are dying.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 24, 2022
Had dinner with 8 hedge fund founders tonight. Great chat. At the end we each offered up one idea. Jaws hit the floor when I offered up mine that I've been pondering for 2 yrs: Russian equities. Fortunately, I've stayed small to date. Ready to pounce, comrades!
Only one other Collum-level bear. Almost all see large inflation with Fed unable to stem it. Oddly, few feared that scenario. I banged out a handful of reasons.
None could give cogent answer on where all the workers have gone. Ideas batted about, but the mystery remained.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 23, 2022
Listening to Rogan #1779. Here is the problem: there is no way to know if the guy is truthful or a pathological liar. He is clearly shaping the narrative. The liars have caused a fundamental loss of trust.
OK. That's it. Osterholm is now throwing balls of bullshit. Rogan has been neutered now. He would have gone for the throat and didn't. This is infuriating that they put Mr. Rogers on to fabricate stories.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 14, 2021
Jane Pauley just told us Portugal was FABULOUS for reaching 98% vaccination. Portugal reach the peak death rate on 2/1/2021 (below). They were 0.8% vaccinated (below).
They pivoted to Adam Schiff saying the Russians WERE colluding to help Trump. Janet Yellen is now assuring us that the pandemic is the cause of inflation. They think we are complete idiots. Maybe, collectively, we are.
Next up, Scott Gottlieb, selling the booster because it will help eliminate this dreaded virus even though the first two identical jabs uncontestably did not. Maybe he thinks it will allow natural immunity to take hold...but that requires jabs still. Air jerk/eyeball roll.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 26, 2021
I did nazi that coming. This is not about healthcare...

zerohedge.com/political/cdc-…
And Chris continues to be repugnant. The acorn fell a mile from the tree on that one. Watch out for blind squirrels find nuts occasionally.
So I am on a jury in a trial an angry parent whose child was forced to vaccinate and is seriously crippled, I would hang that jury no matter what that parent did.
Read 4 tweets

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