Thread by @CrisLeeMaza

Ukraine's first major political upheaval since the start of the war raised alarm bells among anti-corruption activists and political analysts.

Some fear it could tarnish Ukraine's image.

This story is locked, so here's a quick 🧵 thread: nationaljournal.com/s/718251/a-sha…

By now, we all know the news.

Zelensky announced he was removing Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova and the head of Ukraine’s security services, Ivan Bakanov, due to concerns that dozens of their employees are working with the Russian invaders in occupied parts of Ukraine.

Some opposition leaders later raised concerns about the president firing officials without first notifying parliament as Ukraine’s constitution requires.

The Zelensky administration then sent notice to parliament, which dismissed both officials on Tuesday.

Ukraine has struggled to keep Russian spies out of its security forces and government institutions since 2014.

But anti-corruption activists and other political insiders say Zelensky has different motivations for the dismissals.

Zelensky has come under pressure from the West to appoint a special anti-corruption prosecutor.

After months of political wrangling, a commission appointed Oleksandr Klymenko, a detective in the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, to the role on Tuesday.

Anti-corruption activists and others say Zelensky wanted to ensure the people leading law enforcement agencies would be loyal to him and his inner circle before appointing a special anti-corruption prosecutor.

That's why he fired Bakanov and Venediktova.

“They wanted to have more control over the law enforcement system,” @dkaleniuk told me. “They wanted to have full control of the prosecutor general to have full control over the special anti-corruption prosecutor.”

Both Venediktova and Bakanov were long considered loyal allies to Zelensky.

Bakanov, in particular, was the president’s close friend.

But the two officials fell out of favor with Zelensky and his influential chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, after the war began.

Ukrainian government officials have raised questions about how the city of Kherson fell under Russian control while Bakanov was leading the security forces.

They also arrested an adviser to Bakanov, the head of Ukraine’s security services for occupied Crimea, for treason.

But @TarasBerezovets said Zelensky's chief-of-staff Yermak is using Bakanov as a scapegoat to remove a political rival.

“The real reason isn’t treason among officers in the security services. This has to do with political intrigue," he said.

Venediktova, meanwhile, formed close ties with European officials over the last few years and invested in her reputation as a fair prosecutor.

People with knowledge say Zelensky grew angry when she failed to sign indictments against his rival, former President Poroshenko.

“Many people called for [Venediktova's] removal before the war because she was considered an ineffective tool of Zelensky. It turned out she was less of a direct tool of Zelensky than we thought, and she found a modus vivendi with international partners,” @mattia_n told me.

Now there are big questions about who will replace Venediktova and Bakanov.

On Sunday, Zelensky named Oleksii Symonenko as Ukraine’s acting prosecutor general.

Several experts called the appointment a step in the wrong direction.

Anti-corruption activist @dkaleniuk noted that Symonenko previously quashed a corruption case against the current deputy chief of staff Oleg Tatarov.

Ukrainian anti-corruption activists have been urging the U.S. to sanction Tatarov, a close ally of Yermak, for at least a year.

While little is known about the new acting head of the security forces, Vasyl Maliuk, he has also been accused of having close ties to Tatarov.

@TarasBerezovets said officers think Maliuk is an inappropriate candidate and criticize him for corruption ties, especially w/ Tatarov.

These allegations have been echoed by Ukrainian-born @RepSpartz, who wrote a letter to President Biden calling for the administration to brief Congress on Yermak’s role in Ukraine and Tatarov's role in delaying the appointment of a special anti-corruption prosecutor.

Spartz has also made some unverified claims about Yermak.

“The best response to Spartz’s allegations would be to address the fact-based allegations,” @dkaleniuk said. “While there are no facts that prove Yermak is a Russian agent...there are facts about Tatarov and his role.."

The government shake-up in Ukraine has angered opposition politicians who threw support behind Zelensky during the war.

“All of us are very upset with the political turbulence currently taking place in Kyiv. All efforts of all politicians in Ukraine should be concentrated on winning [the war],”@V_Omelyan told me.

Meanwhile, @melindaharing said she’s concerned about the “domestic trajectory” of Ukraine right now.

“If the president isn’t abiding by the constitution and he’s overstepping the Rada and appointing loyalists, that’s a big problem," she said.

The question is if this shakeup will have any effect on Western support for Ukraine.

Any delay in Western assistance would be detrimental to Ukraine’s war effort and governance.

.@m_zablotskyy told me that around 75%of Ukraine’s financial needs are now being covered by printing money or receiving foreign assistance due to decreased tax revenue, the collapse of exports bc of Russia’s blockade, and the increase in military expenses.

Monthly deficit is $5b

Members of Ukrainian civil society argue that, despite the political turmoil, it’s vital for Western countries to continue to support Ukraine.

They plan to hold Zelensky’s feet to the fire to ensure he answers for his political decisions as well as his military ones.

“We are controlling our government despite the war,” @dkaleniuk said. “Ukraine is not just President Zelensky and his chief of staff Yermak.”