Thread by @wartranslated

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych for last night, 21 July, kindly brought to you by Atis: twitter.com/savaadaak.

Text version: wartranslated.com/day-148-july-2…

Battlefield update:

🇷🇺 attacking all front-line with aviation (Kharkiv, Izium, Siversk, Bakhmut, Zaporozhye) - it means 🇷🇺 can not advance, artillery is not managing. This indicates the Russians are unable to go through, unable to carry out the order of their Minister of Defence.

But attacking along the frontline is a mistake.

War is about concentrating efforts, now 🇷🇺 is once again attempting everywhere.
Siversk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka: all 🇷🇺 attacks repelled.

Kherson: many 🇷🇺 warehouses and command posts bombed (3 large bombings), 🇷🇺 did unsuccessful attempt near Blahodatne,
🇷🇺 bombing Kharkiv, Mykolaiv. Aviation not so brave anymore after the Su-35 was taken down.

Alexey Selivanov:

Worked in 🇺🇦 Ministry of Internal Affairs during Yanukovych presidency. In 2014 he betrayed Ukraine and moved to Luhansk/Donetsk militia, now head of the occupied Zaporozhye police.

Ideologically supporting 🇷🇺 war, a hero of Luhansk/Donetsk, he was kidnapped by 🇷🇺 FSB, held in a basement. Federal media got involved, indicated swinging in 🇷🇺 supporters. This is just beginning, when 🇺🇦 will start capturing cities, conflicts will increase.

Apart from him, from the heroes of the 2014 only Khodakovskyy remains, and it is not known for how long. This rift is potentially very dangerous for the Russians.

🇷🇺 losses:

Moscow Times reporting 41,666 complaints about missing solders by end of April moscowtimes.ru/2022/06/09/chi….

Even if 10k have been found, that's 30k lost. May and June had most intense battles, expecting even more losses.
Officially 🇺🇦 reports almost 39k killed 🇷🇺 military, 23k (low estimate) from mobilised LNR/DNR, 10-12k private military [Wagner], total about 60-70k only killed.

🇺🇸 reporting 15k only verified killed, but they check thoroughly.

Putin's health:

CIA said that it doesn't have information on Putin's health issues. However, visibly Putin has many mobility issues.

Most damaging to his psyche health is 22 years being at power, huge blood trail, stress, expecting killer in anyone. Absolute power perverts absolutely.

Putin has issues with his emotional perceptions, he strongly experiences simple emotions - danger and satisfaction, this makes him rational, which is good if related to nuclear threats.

Putin will hold on to his life and power most of all, use of nuclear weapons goes against all of that. He's not like Hitler, he will not shoot himself.
From Putin's reactions and plans, he simply does not seem to get the full picture.

Soon he will realise that plans need to be reviewed into gestures of good will.

Istanbul meeting:

There will be no cease-fire agreement. Idea is simple - 🇺🇦 gets to transport grain, while 🇹🇷 Turkey controls that 🇷🇺 doesn't interrupt or attack.

🇧🇾 Belarus:

Lukashenka announced that for 🇧🇾 security it's enough that only 🇷🇺 has nuclear weapons. Apparently there was too much international noise. Breaking NPT treaty, especially during largest war in Europe is double suicidal.

They likely still have non-nuclear Iskander's, but no nuclear warheads on them.

Sanctions:

🇪🇺 confirmed 7th pack, but contents of individual sanctions are not revealed yet.

These will have some exceptions for the 🇷🇺 agriculture, most likely in preparations to tomorrow's Istanbul meeting. Exeptions to aviation spare parts, in order for 🇷🇺 to maintain safety at international flights.

🇷🇺 are being shown, that if they keep reasonable politics, they have chance of partially staying in international laws. This creates communication channels, which again are good to avoid nuclear threats.

Weapons:

Britain announced significant supplies - 20x M109 self-propelled howitzers, hundreds of kamikaze drones, air-defense systems gov.uk/government/new….

Hundreds of kamikaze drones is significant amount, 50 at single location can destroy everything important - artillery, command posts.
🇺🇦 command hints that air-defence is either already in 🇺🇦, or will arrive very soon.

Most interestingly 🇬🇧 Stormer and 🇩🇪 Gepard tanks can be used as air-defense during an offensive.
Reports of 1000 armoured vehicles delivered to 🇺🇦. Yermak announced lots of surprises soon, with aim to finish war before winter.

🇺🇸 Air Force announced that 🇺🇦 will get western aircraft. Nomenclature of weapons is significantly increasing, with aim to upgrade 🇺🇦 military to NATO weapons.
It is visible that 🇺🇦 is building closed-contour offensive group, able to do combined attack.

Closed borders:

🇺🇦 males still can not leave country. Arestovych strongly supports differentiated mobilisation - accepting military professionals and motivated persons, while allowing unmotivated persons to leave, especially if they can work abroad and support families financially.

Arestovych is part-time advisor. Decisions are made by government based on military estimates, they might have more information, and should be trusted, even in mistakes.

Photo of cat saved from Snake island. Better photo tomorrow.

/end