Thread by @BadBalticTakes

These guys at @RWApodcast specialise in 🇷🇺-analysis. So we had a quick listen to some of their… erm, brilliant analysis.

🧵..

Just prior to Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, they released an episode in February explaining with their expert analysis that there is “no chance in hell” that Russia would launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine. It’s still online here:

“Yea, didn’t age well lol” was their response to the horrific mass slaughter of a nation that ensued.

So far though, no reflection by these “Russia experts” (literally their 1 job) on how they failed to see the most significant Russian decision of our time unfolding before us.

Their analysis doesn’t get any better after the war began.

They believed it would be a quick war - as did the Kremlin, by the way, which even accidentally published a scheduled victory article on its propaganda channels after 3 days. google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.…

‘Russians With Attitude’ were even more delusional though.

Within the first few hours of the war, their expert analysis was that “the entire Ukrainian military just disintegrated” and that Ukraine itself would last “hours, not days”.

By the end of the day, as it became clearer to even them that Ukrainians were resisting, they deleted their most embarrassing predictions so they could revise the Russian victory schedule to “no longer than a week”.

On Day 3, they released a new episode in an attempt to correct some of their bad takes, although that also ages worse than a Russian soldier’s ration kit.

They begin, somehow unironically, by mocking others for pretending to be war specialists while touting their own expertise.

During the episode, they say it’s “extremely obvious” that Russian forces are being embraced by Ukrainian citizens while Ukrainian forces are retreating and surrendering. They also speculate that Zelenskyy has already fled the country.

They also explain why there’s no way that weapons supplies to Ukraine from its allies will have any affect because Russia will easily destroy them.

We’d ask Russian soldiers at their ammo depots what they thought of that but many are unavailable for comment.

They get particularly excited about how elite Russian forces are seizing airports deep into Ukrainian territory in order to then capture Kyiv. They say that will go down in history as one of the most expert military operations.

Factcheck: No. google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.…

As you can see, they get quite upset when reality occasionally seeps through to them.

As the war drags on, they keep revising the timing of Russia’s victory. A month after saying “hours”, they switch to months and add new and ever more delusional ways of coping, such as by saying Russia is just taking great care to minimise civilian casualties.

They also somehow forget their earlier predictions, like here when they insist that no one thought it was going to be a quick war.

Just as a reminder, they said it would be over in hours, and Russian propaganda outlets accidentally published their victory editorial on day 3.

We didn’t bother listening to any more.

Literally their one job is expertly explaining Russia and they couldn’t even forsee any of the biggest developments related to Russia when it was accurately predicted by so many others, especially here in the Baltic states.

They whine that they’ll be censored for supporting Russia’s war - the one they insisted there was no chance in hell would happen - but their podcast is still available everywhere & it’s them who have been deleting their own earlier tweets.

Hopefully as much of their content as possible will be preserved to provide future historians an insight into the delusional thinking responsible for Russia’s genocide.

Until then, Baltic people will continue with our 🇺🇦-cringe posts (supporting human rights, sovereignty, etc).

Despite their insistence that “Ukraine will return to Russia”, it’s clear who the real fraternal peoples are: 🇺🇦 🇪🇪 🇱🇻 🇱🇹