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T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
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Jul 22 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
One of the biggest minimizers and vaccine-only proponents. Also loves to accuse others of clout chasing.
If you say so.
So... Pro mask?
Curious what this article adds other than get vaxxed and you can be mostly relaxed.

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More from @TRyanGregory

T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Jul 23
Sigh. 🧵

* Viruses don't automatically or inevitably evolve to become milder. Transmissibility and immune escape can be under strong selection but virulence may not be, especially if there are lots of hosts, transmission is easy, and infectiousness precedes symptoms.
* Herd immunity isn't going to happen when new immune escaping variants evolve continually. This is true for any source of temporary immunity, but vaccination, infection, or hybrid immunity (vaccination + infection).
* Reinfections are not rare and will probably get more common as vaccine immunity wanes and new variants escape immunity.

* They're all "subvariants of Omicron" in name only. Genetically and antigenically, the various "Omicrons" are quite divergent.
Read 12 tweets
T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Jul 22
Some things I should probably do.

* Write more papers in my Evolution: Education and Outreach series, specifically mutation, genetic drift, sexual selection, and multilevel selection theory.
* Maybe some video talks or a podcast or something about basic evolutionary concepts?
Evolution as fact, theory, and path

evolution-outreach.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.10…
Understanding natural selection: essential concepts and common misconceptions

evolution-outreach.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.10…
Read 8 tweets
T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Jul 22
This person really wants everyone to see monkeypox -- and even HIV -- to be diseases of men who have sex with men. This framing would have fit in very well in the days of reporting GRID (Gay-Related Immune Deficiency) in the early 1980s.
Here's the full take. If 600 out of 14,000 cases showed up among the only group being tested, it must be a gay STI. Again, we've seen this movie before.

No ascertainment bias. Here's one of the CDCs epidemiological criteria.
Read 8 tweets
T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Jul 21
Just going to check in on the situation in Ontario. Remember, no one could have foreseen this, say, more than a month ago. 🧵
Wastewater still going up. Media forgot to celebrate the tiny plateau. 🤷 Image
Test positivity skyrocketing. Image
Read 11 tweets
T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Jul 20
True. So much misinformation. And minimizing. Not to worry, it really is just gay and bisexual men. You know, the only people being tested in many places.
Incidentally, the CDC's diagnostic criteria include this. But no ascertainment bias.

cdc.gov/poxvirus/monke…
Labs are opening up for widespread testing in the US, so save the "no ascertainment bias" claim for later. May go the same way as early claims that the virus is the nearly identical to the 2018 strain (it isn't).
Read 4 tweets
T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Jul 20
Let's take a look at how you (yes you!) can use Nextstrain to track COVID variant evolution as it is happening! 🧵
Nextstrain has tools for several viruses, including SARS2, influenza, Zika, and monkeypox and you can look at different subsets of genome sequence data.

Here's the link to the SARS2 resource we'll be using:

nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/gl…
The main features we will look at are: phylogenies (evolutionary trees) and plots of mutations for different variants. You can also look at maps with summaries of variant frequencies in different regions, but those don't require a lot of explanation so I won't get into them.
Read 14 tweets

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