Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jul 23, 2022 35 tweets 14 min read Read on X
Kremlin may not have a grey cardinal. But it has a bald engineer. The Kinder Egg is a major architect of Putinism. In 1998 he made Putin the FSB Chief. In 2000s he dismantled the regional autonomy imposing the centralised rule. Now he manages Putin's domestic policy and Ukraine🧵
Sergey Kirienko was born as Sergey Israitel in a mixed Russian-Jewish family. After the divorce his mother changed his surname from father's "Israitel" to her own "Kirienko". That could be a pragmatic decision. A boy with a Slavic name would have better career chances in the USSR
In childhood Kirienko lived with his mom in subtropical Sochi. Here he started the bureaucrat career as a Komsomol manager (комсорг) of his high school class. NB: the role of Komsomol in Soviet to post-Soviet transition is underrated. Komsomol management were its main benefactors
After finishing high school he went to the uni in Nizhny Novgorod, majoring in shipbuilding. By coincidence his dad was leading a sub-department (кафедра) at the same shipbuilding department (факультет). Of course he presided over the department Komsomol Committee in uni as well
After the uni he served in the army for two years. This may be an indication that he wasn't recruited by the KGB back then. Indeed, Kirienko was a descendant of the minor Soviet nobility and the KGB wasn't really allowed to recruit nomenklatura kids as their informers or agents
In 1986 Kirienko becomes a foreman at the shipyard Krasnoye Sormovo in Nizhny Novgorod. But he was more interested in a bureaucratic Komsomol career than in production processes. In 1987 he becomes a "liberated" [from work] full time Komsomol secretary at the shipyard
Perestroika gave Komsomol managers lots of new financial opportunities and Kirienko couldn't miss them. He becomes a Komsomol supervisor of NTTM centres. NTTM = Center for Scientific and Technical Creativity of the Youth. Unbelievably lucrative position by the late 1980s
Kirienko, @mbk_center and so many of the Russian elite came from the NTTM. Why? In 1988 NTTMs got the right to cash out the non cash money, making it the unique place for plunder. In order to get how it happened, you must understand Soviet monetary system
Kirienko went into business becoming a criminal entrepreneur in Nizhny Novgorod. In 1991 for example he sent gangsters to beat a businessman Abuladze and threaten to kill him unless he relinquishes control over a tennis court on Timirazeva Street flb.ru/infoprint/7217…
Kirienko was also known for his interest in scientology. When leading a local bank he sent his employees to do courses in a Hubbard College evolkov.net/cults/scientol… That created some controversy once he became the PM independent.co.uk/news/russia-s-…
Through his business activities Kirienko became close to the governor of Nizhny Novgorod Nemtsov. In 1997 Nemtsov became the Deputy PM of Russia and simultaneously the Minister for energy. Nemtsov takes Kirienko to Moscow and makes his deputy. Kirienko joins the government
In Moscow Kirienko begins his incredible rise:

13.05.1997 Deputy Minister for Energy
20.11.1997 Minister for Energy (instead of Nemtsov)
23.03.1998 President Yeltsin appoints him as an acting PM

He was only 35 and a noname. Journalists called him the "Kinder surprise"
Parliament which used to have some agency back then refused to confirm him twice. Third time they agreed though. According to the Article 111 of the Constitution, if Parliament refuses to confirm the President's candidature for the PM three times in a row, it сan be dissolved
Why was Kirienko chosen as a PM? Probably as a scapegoat. Russia was spiralling into a massive crisis and someone had to be held responsible for that. A Ponzi scheme of government short-term obligations ГКО was to blow up soon and someone had to be sacrificed. Why not him?
During his short PM service, Kirienko made a decision of a crucial importance. He appointed Putin as the new FSB Director: chief of the state security. It was ofc done by the President's order. But Yumashev's memories mention that it was Kirienko who lobbied Putin's candidature
Putin later recalled:

"I'm sitting in my office. There's a call from Yumashev [Yeltsin's son in law and Presidential Administration Chief]:

- Can you to to the airport, meet Kirienko?
- Yes

"What has happened?" - I wonder. I was concerned something went wrong
Kirienko is coming out of the plane:

- Volodya, I congratulate you!
- With what?
- The executive order is signed. You are the FSB director

That's how Putin got the control over the state security. Kirienko 1) made decision 2) personally informed Putin of it 3) introduced him
The GKO state obligations Ponzi scheme bursted soon. Kirienko wasn't really responsible for crisis but he was appointed as a scapegoat. One day before Russia declared the default he tried to resign. President didn't allow him to. Five days after the default he just fired him
Kirienko suffered a catastrophe. After becoming the youngest PM in Russian history at just 35, he lost everything. He tried to run for a mayor of Moscow, but unsuccessfully. Tried to launch his own party (the SPS), but with limited success either. His career seemed to be over
It was the Putin's succession that made Kirienko's fortune. First of all, Putin never forgot a man who made him the FSB Chief. Second, with Putin's succession rules of game changed. Public politics were over, and the era of management and technocracy commenced. Kirienko loved it
In 2000 Putin started to reorganise the country dismantling the regional autonomy and imposing the centralised rule. The problem was that many regions were run by independent governors, who didn't fully submit to the new regime. They needed to be put in line
In order to put governors in line, Putin invented the new institution: the Federal Districts. The country was divided into the Federal Districts, each run by the appointed Presidential Plenipotentiary who was responsible for aligning the elected governors with Kremlin's policy
Kirienko was appointed to the very difficult Federal District: the Volga. It included a few ethnic republics, including two very problematic ones - Tatarstan and Bashkortostan. They were both less than enthusiastic about bending the knee. Largely because they were rich
Tatarstan was especially problematic from the Moscow standpoint. In 1992 it refused to sign the Federation Treaty (like Chechnya) and launched a referendum on sovereignty. 61% voted for, so Tatarstan was proclaimed a "sovereign state associated with Russia" rather than a province
Kirienko immediately got into conflict with the Tatarstan President Shaymiev. The latter repeatedly refused to meet Kirienko (unless he comes with Putin). That was a demonstration against Kirienko himself and also against the entire institution of Presidential Plenipotentiaries
Kirienko was a centraliser and thus the enemy of the regional elites. His position of a Moscow appointee shaped his policies. And yet, back in the 2000s he weaponised the "liberal" rhetorics in his centralising crusade. For example, he accused Tatarstan of "state capitalism"
"In many economic respects Tatarstan Republic is acting as the Tatarstan, Inc. It plays by the market rules with the outside world, and by non-market rules inside. For example, in petrochemical industry enterprises have to sell raw materials to refineries at below market prices"
It's a good illustration of how the Moscow elites would weaponise whatever fashionable rhetorics in their quest to grab more powers. Back in the 2000s economic liberalism was fashionable, so they would present themselves as the true market-oriented force. Rhetorics don't matter
While Tatarstan could (initially) resist Kirienko's encroachment, his home Nizhny Novgorod couldn't. He made Nizhny his capital in the region and yet, acted here as a coloniser. He helps Moscow companies to appropriate local industry, creating the absentee landlordism system
In 2005 Kirienko was appointed as the CEO of Rosatom, the state Nuclear Corporation. This should be interpreted in historical context. In the 1990s Soviet military industrial complex was in disarray. Most facilities became independent (but in ruins)
In 2000s Putin reorganised the military industrial complex uniting the plants into vertical integrated holdings. Rostec - the key military producer. KTRV - tactical missiles. Almaz Antey - air defence. Roskosmos (created later) - ballistic missiles. Rosatom - nuclear warheads
NB: *all* of these corporations have both civilian and military production. That's the legacy of Soviet industry which was initially built as dual use. Rosatom has civilian production, too (e.g. nuclear power plants). But it has huge military importance for the deterrence system
On his position, Kirienko became known as not bad manager. Don't take me wrong, he's not brilliant. He'd never be able to build a complex company himself. But at least he was able not to destroy the one he was appointed to. That's something. That makes him better than many others
Kirienko was unhappy about the Rosatom job, seeing it as an exile. In 2016 he had a chance to return to Kremlin, as the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration. On this position, Kirienko concentrated power far exceeding the one of his better known predecessors like Surkov
Until 2022 Kirienko didn't invest much in his PR, preferring to stay in shadow. I would thus argue that his role is underrated, he's a key player of the late Putinism and one of the major driving forces behind this war. But I'll cover it next time. The end of 🧵

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More from @kamilkazani

May 2
Fake jobs are completely normal & totally natural. The reason is: nobody understands what is happening and most certainly does not understand why. Like people, including the upper management have some idea of what is happening in an organisation, and this idea is usually wrong.
As they do not know and cannot know causal relations between the input and output, they just try to increase some sort of input, in a hope for a better output, but they do not really know which input to increase.
Insiders with deep & specific knowledge, on the other hand, may have a more clear & definite idea of what is happening, and even certain, non zero degree of understanding of causal links between the input and output

(what kind of input produces this kind of output)
Read 6 tweets
Apr 12
There is a common argument that due process belongs only to citizens

Citizens deserve it, non citizens don’t

And, therefore, can be dealt with extrajudicially

That is a perfectly logical, internally consistent position

Now let’s think through its implications
IF citizens have the due process, and non-citizens don’t

THEN we have two parallel systems of justice

One slow, cumbersome, subject to open discussion and to appeal (due process)

Another swift, expedient, and subject neither to a discussion nor to an appeal (extrajudicial)
And the second one already encompasses tens of millions of non citizens living in the United States, legal and illegal, residents or not.

Now the question would be:

Which system is more convenient for those in power?

Well, the answer is obvious
Read 10 tweets
Apr 5
I have recently read someone comparing Trump’s tariffs with collectivisation in the USSR. I think it is an interesting comparison. I don’t think it is exactly the same thing of course. But I indeed think that Stalin’s collectivisation offers an interesting metaphor, a perspective to think aboutImage
But let’s make a crash intro first

1. The thing you need to understand about the 1920s USSR is that it was an oligarchic regime. It was not strictly speaking, an autocracy. It was a power of few grandees, of the roughly equal rank.
2. Although Joseph Stalin established himself as the single most influential grandee by 1925, that did not make him a dictator. He was simply the most important guy out there. Otherwise, he was just one of a few. He was not yet the God Emperor he would become later.
Read 30 tweets
Mar 16
The great delusion about popular revolts is that they are provoked by bad conditions of life, and burst out when they exacerbate. Nothing can be further from truth. For the most part, popular revolts do not happen when things get worse. They occur when things turn for the better
This may sound paradoxical and yet, may be easy to explain. When the things had been really, really, really bad, the masses were too weak, to scared and too depressed to even think of raising their head. If they beared any grudges and grievances, they beared them in silence.
When things turn for the better, that is when the people see a chance to restore their pride and agency, and to take revenge for all the past grudges, and all the past fear. As a result, a turn for the better not so much pacifies the population as emboldens and radicalises it.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 1
Three years of the war have passed

So, let’s recall what has happened so far

The first thing to understand about the Russian-Ukrainian war is that Russia did not plan a war. And it, most certainly, did not plan the protracted hostilities of the kind we are seeing today Image
This entire war is the regime change gone wrong.

Russia did not want a protracted war (no one does). It wanted to replace the government in Kyiv, put Ukraine under control and closely integrate it with Russia

(Operation Danube style) Image
One thing to understand is that Russia viewed Ukraine as a considerable asset. From the Russian perspective, it was a large and populous country populated by what was (again, from the Russian perspective) effectively the same people. Assimilatable, integratable, recruitable Image
Read 32 tweets
Feb 8
Why does Russia attack?

In 1991, Moscow faced two disobedient ethnic republics: Chechnya and Tatarstan. Both were the Muslim majority autonomies that refused to sign the Federation Treaty (1992), insisting on full sovereignty. In both cases, Moscow was determined to quell them. Image
Still, the final outcome could not be more different. Chechnya was invaded, its towns razed to the ground, its leader assassinated. Tatarstan, on the other hand, managed to sign a favourable agreement with Moscow that lasted until Putin’s era.

The question is - why. Image
Retrospectively, this course of events (obliterate Chechnya, negotiate with Tatarstan) may seem predetermined. But it was not considered as such back then. For many, including many of Yeltsin’s own partisans it came as a surprise, or perhaps even as a betrayal.

Let's see why Image
Read 24 tweets

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