1. Other than a temporary windfall from high energy prices, "There is nothing that offers hope for the #TrinidadandTobago economy" says @kevinramnarine. He adds that major private sector companies in TT are neither investing nor expanding here.
2. It’s now less than 6 weeks until #TrinidadandTobago’s next budget. After 7 years of negative growth, it must be a budget for growth. Negative growth means lower living standards for the people of TT; positive growth raises them.
3. #TrinidadandTobago’s govt should identify the many #oilandgas projects long awaiting a final investment decision & ensure that the budget unlocks them. For years the @TTEnergyChamber has been identifying how this can be done & has been ignored even as production has declined.
4. Unlocking #oilandgas projects in #TrinidadandTobago means enacting the sort of reform described in this article. TT will be better off for doing so: more energy production means more tax revenues, more employment, more growth & higher living standards. energynow.tt/blog/urgent-ne…
5. #TrinidadandTobago’s government has known for 7 years that reforms are required & has repeated promised, but failed, to enact them. After 7 years of a shrinking economy it must act now and let TT reap the reward that is due. ab-76.blogspot.com/2022/06/broken…#growth4trinibago
#TrinidadandTobago’s @StuartRYoung1 will present with NJ Ayuk next week. Mr Ayuk has recently written “2022 is turning out to be a banner year for the African oil and gas industry” - njayuk.com/2022-is-turnin…. Africa is booming while TT remains in the doldrums due to govt inaction.
More from NJ Ayuk explaining why Africa’s #oilandgas sector is booming. #Trinidad should note that cutting through red tape & introducing savvy fiscal systems are key to attracting investment; investment which leads to increased production & income. njayuk.com/operator-frien…
1. Whilst #TrinidadandTobago allows its #oil resources to remain in the ground because of long standing government inaction, Suriname is on the verge of joining Guyana in finding billions of barrels of oil. oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-…
2. There’s still plenty of #oilandgas to find in #TrinidadandTobago. It’s reckoned that there might be another 5 billion barrels of oil (worth US$500 billion) and over 50 trillion cubic feet of gas still to discover. guardian.co.tt/article/more-o…
3. Exploring for #oilandgas and bringing any discoveries into production in #TrinidadandTobago is very expensive (hundreds of millions of US$ off-shore and tens of millions on onshore). Companies will only invest if they can be confident that they’ll make a profit.
1. It’s been well reported that #TrinidadandTobago’s deep water #oilandgas bid round disappointed. Even more disappointing is the consequence that outcome will now have on the country’s economic growth.
2. There’s been no overall economic growth in TT since the @thepnmparty government came to power in 2015 - see the dashed red line in the chart below.
3. In large part this is because #Trinidad’s #oilandgas production has fallen dramatically since 2015 - see bottom left and top right in the chart below.
That fall in production has led to a consequential fall in government revenue - see top left in the chart below.
2. But the Finance Minister, @ImbertColm, obtained a Master’s Degree, in Oil and Gas Law, with Distinction, with a specialisation in Fiscal Regimes and Oil Taxation from the University of Aberdeen in 2016. finance.gov.tt/our-people/min…
3. Incidentally, the University of Aberdeen has this to say about #Trinidad’s #oilandgas fiscal regime.
1. The @GuardianTT asks why there was a poor response to the deep water bid round. We could go back to the 2015 Budget (when the government first promised to reform the energy fiscal system), but let’s start in June 2021.
2. @StuartRYoung1, who in June 2021 had just been appointment to @TTMEEI, attended @TTEnergyChamber’s conference. He said his focus was on bringing oil & gas resources to market as quickly as possible & that he needed to review fiscal terms before embarking on the next bid rounds
3. Then in October 2021, @ImbertColm announced in the Budget, a “review [of] the appropriateness in today’s environment of our three main petroleum taxes, namely Petroleum Profits Tax (also known as Corporation Tax in this Sector), Supplemental Petroleum Tax and Royalty.”
2. “Accordingly, in the shortest time possible, after consultation with the industry, we will introduce a new and appropriate fiscal regime designed to encourage further exploration…” @ImbertColm continued in 2015. ab-76.blogspot.com/2022/06/broken…
3. “We cannot sit idly by and allow production to decline and revenues to fall, and in finding a solution to the difficulties that we now face as a country, we must all work together” @ImbertColm went on. ab-76.blogspot.com/2022/06/broken…