Thread by @mdmitri91

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych for Day 150, 23 July. Kindly brought to you by Atis: twitter.com/savaadaak.

Text version: wartranslated.com/day-150-july-2…

Duration of the war:

The duration of the war depends on depth of theater, strength of sides, and objectives. 🇷🇺 objectives are way out of their strength. They have lost war at Strategic level by end of March, when they could not capture Kyiv.

Soon they will loose at Operational level, when they won't be able to attack, then at Tactical level, which might not be soon however, as 🇷🇺 has shown incredible stubbornness.

Battlefield update:

Kharkiv, Izium, Siversk, Bakhmut: 🇷🇺 doing small tactical offensives, while regrouping at rear, trying to create Tactical-Operational reserves (3-4 BTG) for another offensive in main directions.
Maryinka: 🇷🇺 attempts to flank.
Davydiv Brid: 🇷🇺 trying avoid another envelopment.

Perspective for 🇺🇦 success.
Vysykopillia: 🇷🇺 attempting to avoid Battle of Ilovaisk [link]. Disconnect between encircled group and remaining 🇷🇺 forces is small. 🇺🇦 is acting awkwardly, not enough forces to completely surround 🇷🇺. Still need fights to have tactical surrounding.

If 🇺🇦 doesn't bring reinforcements, perspective for success can be lost.
Kherson: After damaging Antonovsky bridge (1), 🇺🇦 artillery damaged bridge near Darivka (2), leaving 🇷🇺 supplies coming through Nova Khakovka dam (3) and Snihurivka (4).

Darivka bridge (2) is not completely destroyed, but that might happen soon. 🇷🇺 is considering pontoon bridge, but if that gets 1 hit, it will float away.

It's obviously visible, that 🇺🇦 is seriously working in this direction for 3 weeks with objectives to loosen, break down, and then destroy 🇷🇺 grouping.

Odessa: Looks like it's a simple revenge, as 🇷🇺 tried to force some rules in Istanbul, but failed.

Due to 🇷🇺 excuses, it doesn't look like it's going to be systematic, otherwise 🇷🇺 would accuse 🇺🇦 of breaking agreements. Doubtful that 🇷🇺 would continue attacks, or sink ships.

Weapons:

🇩🇪 IRIS-T air-defence said to be delayed - it's just press, they need loud titles.

They are not manufactured yet.
🇺🇸 Jake Sullivan said that it's not planned to provide ATACMS (300km) missiles to 🇺🇦. It doesn't mean much, as couple of months ago the same was said about M142 HIMARS and aircraft, now 🇺🇦 pilots are already training.

🇺🇦 has all types of weapons now, aim is to fully rearm to NATO standards.
All announcements about new weapon types are a week or two after they are being used.

Sanctions:

Abramovych was present in Istanbul negotiations, currently has case in court for sanctions against him.

Assisting 🇺🇦 does mean something for 🇺🇦, but not to the West. 🇺🇦's say in sanctioning something is very limited.

Kherson:

Internet speed throttled due to preparations for referendum, considering banning Youtube, 🇷🇺 doesn't want videos to get out.

People asking what to do with businesses in Kherson, if any guidelines. There are no guidelines from 🇺🇦 parliament, Arestovych recommends to avoid getting a 🇷🇺 passport as much as possible, make up excuses, etc. It will not be long, until Kherson is freed.

🇭🇺 Hungary:

Orban called for peace, saying that sanctions don't work. It's only Orban's party and connections, 🇭🇺 President and opposition support 🇺🇦.
He is moving against whole 🇪🇺 and NATO, likely will get a reaction, perhaps 🇪🇺 will switch to majority voting instead of full-agreement.

Next broadcast on Monday.