Today FSB announced that they have “foiled a plot by Ukraine’s intelligence services” to lure Russian military pilots to surrender to Ukraine – with their planes – in return for millions of USD in payments (thread).
Using a traditional mix of forged "evidence" and loosely interpreted facts, the FSB also accused me personally of being involved in the plane-hijacking plot (on screen: totally forged message, I never had a UK number, obviously).
What is true, however, is I was involved in this crazier-than-fiction story of triple-agents, fake passports and faux girlfriends - as a documentary film maker. Yes, we were chronicling one of the wackiest counter-counter-intel operations of all time. And the docu is still on.
While Russia is presenting today this as a coup for its counter intelligence, in fact the operation was a serious blunder for the FSB, disclosing unintentionally identities of dozens of counter intel officers, their methods of operation, and their undercover assets.
Remember the Wagner sting operation in Belarus? Well, as Russia invaded Ukraine, some of the Ukrainian operatives who engineered that sting decided to repeat it: this time by enticing RU military pilots to surrender. In April, Ukraine adopted an “weapons-surrender-incentive law”
A team of Ukrainian operatives decided to approach Russian pilots with an offer based on this law. We found out about the initiative, and assured ourselves a front seat – to make a documentary about this brazen operation.
Several Russian military pilots were approached and even sent “proof-of-access” videos from inside their planes, in each case bearing a separate number hand-written on pieces of paper. Some of the footage from the inside of the planes was quite detailed and enlightening.
(Note that now FSB are presenting these videos as "controlled leaks" - while at the same time blurring the inside of the cockpit on TV).
The “negotiations” between the Ukrainian recruiters and the pilots, which we filmed, started out as expected, but their tone changed quickly, suggesting the pilots were no longer talking on their own behalf but were “coached” – likely by FSB military counter-intelligence officers
A clear clue that the FSB had intercepted the communications came when one of the pilots suddenly said he no longer wanted to get his wife out of the country, but his "lover" instead.
It took me about 5 minutes to discover that the pilot's "lover" (waaay too hot for him, FSB) was an FSB asset, working as a fitness trainer by day, but moonlighting as an FSB girlfriend-for-hire the rest of the time. (The Ukrainians figured that out too).
Nor did the pilot seem to know anything about his "girlfriend's" background (he was earnestly surprised she even had a travel passport, and that she had been in Istanbul a few months ago, and to Barcelona a year earlier).
...but I also found out throughout the process of her "boyfriend's negotiations with the Ukrainians, she she had been talking to an FSB military counter-intel officer.
Another clue came when a different pilot suddenly asked his Ukrainian counterparts for advice in incapacitating his co-pilot with a sedative.
At this point, it became clear to me that the original luring operation was over – and had turned into a double “operational game” in which both sides were trying to extract maximum information from the other, while feeding them maximum disinfo.
The Ukrainians started feeding the "pilots" - imem the FSB -fake maps of their anti-aircraft deployments, as well as disinfo on the operational airstrips.
At the same time, the pilots sent (probabably equally fake) approach and descent maps of their own. We kept filming.
(At one point, the Ukrainians even convinced the FSB to send the wife of one of the pilots - along with a whole FSB tailing team - to Minsk, waiting for a promised "meet up" with the Ukrainians handlers. The FSB waited in vain for 4 days)
This bizarre mutual-deceipt game came to an end when the FSB realized no one will show up at any of the suggested meet-ups (FSB were keen to identify Ukrainian agents), realizing they've been burned. And the Ukrainians realized they're likely not getting a real pilot either.
Despite the unexpected ending (so far), we still plan to finish this crazy film.
An important P.S. based on questions from readers.
The Ukrainian operation was not a project of either SBU or GUR. (If it were, there'd be no way we would - or want to - get access to it). It was organized by maverick ex operatives whom we got to know in the Wagner investigation.
So all the Russian statements from today - claiming this was a "GUR" (Military Intel) operation "with support from NATO" - total, unadulterated bollocks. The whole of the FSB CI were fighting tooth and nail against a bunch of, essentially, volunteers.
And not for the first time.
Some more Moscow4 moments from this op: the fake girlfriend claimed she had no travel passport & needed help from the Ukrainians to get one (clearly FSB were trying to scout out Ukraine's network of support). However, she DID have a passport, so they told her to report it as lost
When the Ukrainians confronted the pilot with "hey man, your gf DID have a passport.. how come it was reported lost TODAY?"..after a long confused silence there came the cringiest of explanations:
"Her ex-boyfriend tore it up".
The FSB version of "the dog ate my homework"
And probably the most meta moment of the whole thing.
Another pilot, writing under FSB dictation, said he wanted his family to have totally new IDs and leave no trace of leaving Russia, because: "I don't want the same thing to happen to us as with the Skripals".
And one more "can't believe this s**t is real" moment: this FSB military counter-intelligence guy in charge of supervising pilots, Maj. Nikita Bukhtatov, has an actual INSTAGRAM post with his own car next to a plane at a military airport.
...the FSB counter-intel guy loves his car....and instagram! Geolocation challenge.
"Look, ma, I work in counter-intelligence and will gram from every assignment so you know I'm okay"
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In addressing the Havana Syndrome controversy, I'd stick to the old golden triangle for crime investigations: who had the Motive, Means and Opportunity - and if a suspect is found, does s/he have an Alibi (short thread)
In his February 2012 "election" platform essay, Putin wrote:
That same year, Putin created a military R&D program that was tasked with developing "directed energy weapons", among other "futuristic" weapons. This was clearly Putin's pet project.
Our friends at @agents_media used recently hacked Russian airline booking data to prove what Polish authorities have claimed all along: that "Pablo Gonzales", aka Pavel Rubtsov, is in fact a GRU operative. They found joint flight bookings between him and GRU officer Sergey Turbin
What I can add is that Sergey Turbin is not just any GRU operative (as seen from his address registration at the GRU academy); he belongs to GRU's 5th Department, i.e. the one running the illegals program. His phone number appears in call records of members of the 5th department.
In particular, he made dozens of phone calls to Andrey Ilchenko, a top-ranking GRU general who oversees the illegals program - and who also supervised the so-called "Bonanza Media" project and ran a discreditation campaign against @Bellingcat
Russian telegram channels show (graphic) video of wreckage of plane on which Prigozhin and Utkin/Wagner were registered to have flown. Still anticipating evidence that Prigozhin did fly on that plane (and didn't just send a decoy).
and a video of the falling plane with 10 passengers on board (competing narratives in Russian channels of "two S300 missiles" vs "bomb on board" circulating for now).
Prigozhin's second plane is now landing, and everyone is holding their breath if he doesn't show up alive on it. If he does (less likely than the alternative), that will be a second humiliation for Putin in 60 days.
I keep getting asked what's going to happen with PMC Wagner. My answer usually is "no one knows, not even Prigozhin or Putin", but there are a few things that can be put on the record for the time being, based both on leaks by in-fighting clans, ex-mercs, & phone data (short 🧵)
First, a reminder of the context: at the start of the war, Wagner was not invited to the table. On the assumption of a quick victory for 🇷🇺, generals at MoD and GRU set up their own PMC, both to seize control away from Prigozhin, but also to dip into the (corrupt) funding flows.
The top general who in late 2021 was put in charge of creating the new PMC (variously called Reduta or Zvezda) was Gen. Vladimir Alexeev (yes, the same one who famously sat down to negotiate with Prigozhin on the day of the abortive coup attempt)
Russian channels report three naval drones attacked the Crimea bridge (official reports claim drones were destroyed), but another drone reported hitting an oil tanker approx 30 miles from the bridge...which may have been the real 🎯?
Indeed, the Sig oil tanker that Russian channels report was hit, was in the right place near the bridge and appears to have shuttled oil between Crimea and Syria, worked for Russian armed forces and was thus a legitimate military target.
Ukrainian telegram channels publish alleged intercepts of conversation of the crew of the Sig tanker; they talk of a fully flooded engine room and an immobilized vessel.
Russian media report that a drone attacked buildings near Komsomolsky prospect 17 in Moscow; traffic down this avenue has been closed. What is interesting is that this address is just across from the headquarters of GRU's cyber offense (incl. FancyBear), among other mil. units
At this location is also the Military University () and several top-secret GRU facilities, including the head of their illegals program. If Ukraine hit that building complex, the symbolic damage to MoD/GRU will be very significant.vumo.mil.ru
Russia's MoD building, with smoke from the drone that Russia says was shot down before it reached its target.