No changes except that the Belarusian forces yesterday conducted exercises at the command and communications points. This allows to them to test communication and commanding points aimed for combat activities.
Generally speaking this may indicate preparation for hostilities so the situation occasionally shakes up. However, no forming of the strike groups is observed. The situation generally remains calm.
One addition is that the Belarusian side leads an active reconnaissance of the Ukrainian territory, and yesterday two ORLAN UAVs were taken down in Volyn Oblast.
More UAVs were observed in Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Chernovtsi Oblasts however this was later refuted, apparently it was the ISS that demonstrated radiation. It might be seen again during the next four days.
Another thing to add is that Belarus has purchased 1000 plastic bodybags, similarly to what Russia bought before the start of the operation. The danger of missile strikes remains.
Northern direction
Russian missile and artillery shelling resulting in dead and wounded.
Sloboda direction
Defensive fights, Russian troops are trying to prevent Ukrainian movement towards the Ukraine state border. Shelling along the whole line of contact. Russia sometimes carries out aviation strikes.
Kharkiv direction
Shelling and aviation strikes along the whole line. No frontline movements, only positional fights. Kharkiv was shelled once again by artillery.
Sloviansk direction
Shelling and decrease of combat activities. Positional fights and artillery exchanges.
Russian forces in these directions are unable to restore the same intensity of advance they had in Luhansk Oblast.
For over three days they have been unable to perform offensive operations. Sloviansk group took losses, retreated and is now regrouping, attempting to accumulate vehicles and fuel.
Kramatorsk direction
Increased intensity - shelling, battles for Spornoye continues since yesterday - enemy was repelled and took losses, retreated to initial positions.
Donetsk direction
Attempts by the Russian forces to improve their position, in places to push away Ukrainian forces, but they are not leading active hostilities. Fuel and ammo accumulation to prepare for Siversk and Soledar advance.
It is known that Russians are moving fuel in grain carriers.
Bakhmut direction
Continued shelling with offensive operations at Berestovo and Semigorye that were repelled resulting in enemy retreat. Yet they continued with the assault towards Pokrovskoye.
Avdeevka - Novopavlovskoye - Zaporizhye direction
No active hostilities, only positional battles and artillery exchanges. Aviation was not used.
South direction
Defensive fights on the Russian side, with attempts to prevent the movement of Ukrainian forces.
As of today the destruction of Russian infrastructure continues including ammo and fuel caches, air defence positions S-300 (the exact positions from where shelling of Mykolaiv is taking place).
The Black Sea
Two ‘Kalibr’ missile carriers were observed today. No naval rocket strikes on Ukrainian positions.
Other
In the past 24 hours two Russian Su-25 planes and one Ka-52 helicopters were destroyed by the 25th paratrooper brigade.
Ukrainian city strikes
Kharkiv was attacked, and so was Odesa Oblast near Zatoka, and also near a bridge over Zatoka. Also Mykolaiv with 18 missiles, including six X-59 “Ovod” missile. Also, S-300 ground to ground strikes in Mykolaiv.
Ukraine continues destruction of military infrastructure of the Russian forces with now over 50 ammo caches burned by HIMARS or similar systems.
Weapon supplies
Positive news - Germany transferred MLRS Mars II which are identical to M270 as they are produced on license. This happened on a very short notice.
Also transferred to Ukraine are three PhZ-2000 howitzers, and also three Gepard air defence systems out of 15 promised.
In general, the frontline is stable, especially in the East. All assault operations by the Russian forces are resisted. In the south of Ukraine - asymmetrical war, a counter-offensive but in its modern format, not direct armoured attacks.
Instead, it is a combined offensive mainly characterised by bleeding of the enemy.
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Fundamental strategic changes observed - 🇷🇺 relocating everything from Izium and elsewhere to Kherson-Melitopol-Zaporozhye area.
🇷🇺 doing frontal offensive in Donetsk front, from Marinka to Avdiivka.
🇷🇺 has small achievement - captured Vuhlehirska power station.
Siversk and Bakhmut - 🇷🇺 is not doing well.
Russia's plans:
Assumption that Kremlin has decided to cancel the objective of capturing Donetsk district, and switching to strategic defence (along all front line).
Belarusian forces continue air reconnaissance but they do not enter Ukrainian airspace after two UAVs were taken down.
- Siversk direction
No changes. Continued shelling resulting in casualties among civilian population, and infrastructure damage.
- Kharkiv direction
Continued shelling. Along the line and in near rears, Russian forces are creating pontoon crossings over water obstacles to shorten supply lines to the frontline. This is caused by attacks on ammo caches. Kharkiv city shelled substantially.
In general, the situation at the frontlines is stable, it will not change significantly soon.
Directions:
Belarus Armed Forces:
Volyn-Polesye northern directions are combined into one. Volyn-Polesye – no changes, the enemy is conducting reconnaissance, continues covering state border and testing combat-readiness of the troops.
40-50km from Ukrainian border in Belarus the Iskander missile brigade ready to strike Ukrainian territory. Activity of the Russian aviation in this direction is declining.
Northern direction
Sumy, Chernihiv – continued shelling of civilian infrastructure.
The duration of the war depends on depth of theater, strength of sides, and objectives. 🇷🇺 objectives are way out of their strength. They have lost war at Strategic level by end of March, when they could not capture Kyiv.
Soon they will loose at Operational level, when they won't be able to attack, then at Tactical level, which might not be soon however, as 🇷🇺 has shown incredible stubbornness.
Remember photos of the Russian equipment being loaded onto boats in the vicinity of Snake Island? Russian blogger reveals this was carried out personally by no other than Maj. General as civilian crane operators refused to work under the thread of Ukrainian missiles (short🧵)
"And the Black Sea Fleet couldn’t find any other way to deliver the anti-aircraft missile systems and other large equipment except for using this crane. So the deputy Black Sea Fleet commander, Maj. General Mikhail Yansikov had to personally persuade one of the crane ...