Thread by @TomTrudeau

How to find good dynasty baseball prospects for FREE before they land on Prospect Lists 🧵

Step 1: don’t look at pitchers

If you must, just look at K-BB% leaders on @fangraphs 23 and younger and don’t look below Double A

Step 2: Age to level filter on FG

Triple A: 24 and younger
Double A: 23 and younger
A+: 21 and younger
A (full szn): 19 and younger
Short szn: 18 and younger

If you’re an “old” max age at each level (eg 24.6 year old Triple A hitter), the burden for better stats is higher

Step 3: Sort by wRC+ on FG

Find the youngest available players at the top with:
- K:BB as close to 1 as possible
- 10%+ BB
- sub 20% K
- ISO above .150

Make compromises when thresholds are cleared easily (eg ISO of .230 = higher K% acceptable)

Step 4: IRL Scout lens

Unless stats are positively insane, ignore anyone who wasn’t a 40 or better preseason

Extra credit for anyone who was a 45 or 45+ preseason

Smash add 50’s or above

Step 5: fantasy tools lens

Apply extra credit to guys with
- SB (double digit SB pace)
- Preseason speed above 50
- preseason raw power above 50

Step 6: Projections

Extra credit for upper minors players steamer projects above 100 wrc+

If you’ve done this right, your favorites will show up atop @RossJensen12 and @RosenJordanBlum stats / age / level prospect model lists

Step 7: Churn

Be ruthless. If a guy slumps and another stats darling starts cooking, be ready to add the new hotness

Step 8: trust the process

#Lists are slow to update and even the best prospect writers aren’t tracking every performance in real time

Prospects who dominate the wrc+ leaderboards with K:BB and are young for level will eventually get helium

For example, a couple pop ups I’ve hit on this year (Hao Yu Lee and Will Benson) had very little #list coverage, until suddenly they did! Benson inside top 100’s and Lee showed up on a BP just missed top 50 last 2 weeks.

(Ji-hwan Bae is next to go from 0 to hero.)

Full disclosure this process would have filtered out Anthony Volpe pre-‘21 promotion

More times than not, the age filters will help you save time and improve accuracy