Traditional trade routes are getting revived. Over 2,200 years ago, Indian spices, gold, textiles and gemstones would transit across the Middle East to ports in Gaza and Lebanon before making their way to Europe. The Nabataeans of Petra grew enormously wealthy off this.
The economic development of Indian states in the ancient past was broadly uniform. In large part, this was due to both land and sea trade routes providing trade corridors. Over land, trade with Persia and beyond boosted economic activity in India’s north and central regions.
Pakistan’s recent pitch to capitalize on its geoeconomic potential is obviously falling flat because of political and security issues. China faces the same issues with both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Indian trade with Central Asia and Europe has to adjust to this reality.
The Delhi-Bombay expressway is a key development which will tap India’s demographic dividend in its interior and harness it for external trade. Halving transport time will have a multiplier effect on both regional growth and the variety of goods that can be produced and exported. Image
On the eastern seaboard, the south has done well. The laggard is the east, drawing some of its weakness from the low economic activity in its immediate neighborhood. Until SE Asia develops and ties into the traditional Indosphere, Bengal and Bihar will relatively underperform. Image

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More from @suryakane

Jul 29
China may let the US pick up the pieces when Pakistan is financially falling apart, but it remains the principal partner vs. India. And as much as Islamabad/Pindi arbitrages between DC and Beijing, the US uses the corrupt state for regional geopolitical hedging and money washing.
The top recipient of US Covid vaccine “aid” is Pakistan with 77.5m doses, or 14% of total US donations. The next highest is Bangladesh, with 61.5m. The US government pays $20 a vaccine to Pfizer, for a sum total of $1.55 billion just for Pakistan. Big pharma benefits the most. Image
Another example where USAID acts a conduit for funneling US government money through Pakistan back to contractors at home: they commit $200 million for an environmental and social impact assessment for a dam being constructed by the Chinese in PoJK. Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 29
Interesting that the US “helps” India “preserve” democracy Americans’ trust in government nears a record low. Only 41% are satisfied with how democracy functions while in India, it is 70%. Indian voter turnout sits at 67.4%, 12% higher than the average of the last 7 US elections. ImageImage
Votes are cast on paper ballots giving rise to a vast majority of Americans worrying over election integrity (83%) and cheating (75%). In India, the introduction of electronic voting machines has boosted election integrity and encouraged voter participation. Image
Indian voters have far more options in terms of parties with real influence than their American counterparts. The hegemony of just two political parties in the US centralizes powers. It leaves voters without reasonable third options, which a parliamentary system accommodates.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 27
The longer the Ukraine conflict persists, inflation eats away at Europe’s long term economic capabilities. This blunts the US sphere of influence. Meanwhile, the US is hedging its bets on Taiwan with the CHIPS Act, implying they’ve raised the probability of Taiwan falling.
A short war is far too risky politically for the Democrats who also lack the appetite or incentive for a negotiated settlement on Ukraine. There are no good outcomes on the horizon, given the Biden admin has tacitly agreed to G2 overlain with a soft containment policy for China.
Sanctions aren’t doing the trick to contain Russia and Putin can grind on for longer than Biden by a mile. At a critical juncture when strategic thinking and resolve are tested, cracks are appearing in foreign policy. Its effects are evident in the reaction of partner nations.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 26
The Great Reorder:
∙ Deindustrialize Europe by raising energy costs and inflation
∙ Force firms to offshore manufacturing
∙ Turn Europe into a consumption sink
∙ Exploit weak consensus formation to fracture the EU politically and socially
∙ Blunt the US’ sphere of influence
Europe is seen as a continent divided along ethnic and linguistic lines. Reordering demands its people and economy be controlled by Eurasia. A demilitarized, US-allied Germany leading a continent facing demographic change and deep dependence on China, was a natural first target.
The period of colonization marked Europe’s high point. Resource-deficit, they extracted raw materials from occupied lands. Post WWII, this changed. But as a junior partner to the US, they refocused on advancing a neoliberal agenda at the expense of their own strategic interests.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 4
The softest long-term strategy to combat radicalization demands a combination of increased state control with reform of educational and religious institutions. The longer it gets delayed, India’s external and internal adversaries find more opportunities to destabilize the state.
The government has done a solid job with curtailing terrorism over the last eight years, and that has increased the frustration amongst groups both inside and outside the country. Evidently, the strategy has changed. When one form of violence gets prevented, others arise.
.@KirenRijiju siloed and staggered reform might be the norm in a democracy but swift, comprehensive and far-reaching changes are the need of the hour. This is what the electorate has voted the BJP in for. One can only hope this covers judicial and police reform as well.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 2
Despite public pressure, foreign “journalists” who cavort with separatists and ply the regime change trade haven’t been stripped of their visas and deported. A bit of gratitude does no harm, but then again, it can be expected from those who whitesplain “democracy” to the natives.
India’s place in Western free press rankings is inversely proportional to its degree of sovereignty. That’s something the a sixth of humanity broadly agrees with. So, the more Western journalists carp and writhe in discomfort, the greater the pleasure derived by the masses.
A coordinated effort to gaslight Indians into believing their country is only worthy of being civilized by Westerners and their sepoys has failed spectacularly. Tables have turned. The more unhinged the narrative, the better it is for building valuable anti-neocolonial sentiment.
Read 4 tweets

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