Thread by @wartranslated

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, Day 154, July 27. Kindly brought to you by Atis: twitter.com/savaadaak.

Text version: wartranslated.com/day-154-july-2…

Battlefield update:

Fundamental strategic changes observed - 🇷🇺 relocating everything from Izium and elsewhere to Kherson-Melitopol-Zaporozhye area.
🇷🇺 doing frontal offensive in Donetsk front, from Marinka to Avdiivka.
🇷🇺 has small achievement - captured Vuhlehirska power station.

Siversk and Bakhmut - 🇷🇺 is not doing well.

Russia's plans:

Assumption that Kremlin has decided to cancel the objective of capturing Donetsk district, and switching to strategic defence (along all front line).

Unknown if 🇷🇺 plans to do few concentrated attacks, to negate 🇺🇦 offensive potential. 🇷🇺 has imagined 4-move plan, such complicated plans are bound to fail. 2 moves would work.
🇷🇺 has finally made strategic level mistake, August is going to be very interesting.

🇷🇺 will switch to defence, press for cease-fire (Korea style), agreement like Minsk-3. For that they need to stop 🇺🇦 counter-offensive, to force 🇺🇦 to waste their reserves prematurely in one or several directions.

Words for this were thought some 2-3 months ago, now 🇷🇺 actions are confirmed.

🇷🇺 public opinions are going insane, seems like everyone got permission to write bad news.

Kherson bridges:

Of course there is intention in the strikes on the bridges, that won't be revealed.

Any military officer should understand what's happening. What can be said: it's a gradual, not one-time isolation of war theater. There is a certain logic to that.

🇷🇺 currently using pontoon bridge over Inhulets, and rail bridge by covering rails with wood - speed is slow, just like pontoon bridge. Darivka had the only bridge able to support heavy equipment.

Now everything is held together by 3 bridges - Nova Khakovka dam, rail bridge, and Darivka (pontoon bridges).
🇷🇺 has already brought 5-7 BTGs, which is a lot for the current situation.

This is largest VDV (most motivated and battle-ready) grouping in this conflict and this location. The problem is, that those are light units, but there is logic - as light units, they can manoeuvre and also flee fast.

The first 🇺🇦 victory will be hard, but when it happens (and it will happen), the fall of 🇷🇺 will be terrible. All 🇷🇺 [morale] holds on them being able to exert pressure, when it stops, Russians would start questioning - why did we lost 50k solders, if land can be lost like that?

What is the perspective?

🇺🇦 offensive:

There won't be a single day, when you will be able to tell, that it had started. In a way - it already has started.

It will be accurate destruction of 🇷🇺 forces top-down, starting from operational, then operational-tactical, then tactical levels. Decisive forces - artillery (guided 155mm shells) , rocket artillery (HIMARS), aviation.

🇺🇦 will not throw solders in one large assault, they will first make sure 🇷🇺 has no fuel, no ammo, no command, only then approach with infantry. Of course, there will be manoeuvres, forcing 🇷🇺 to respond and deploy defence.

This is not yet NATO level, when most damage can be done remotely, but close to that. Most emphasis is on remote fire, isolation of battlefields, and incremental destruction.
🇺🇦 objective is for its infantry to encounter weakened 🇷🇺 forces without supplies, fuel, ammo, command.

Abramovych:

People expressing dislike of Abramovych mediating negotiations. People are entitled to express discontent, however decisions of survival of 🇺🇦 nation are made by Presidential office. If Abaramovych can mediate it well, let him do that.

If he didn't help in any way, he wouldn't be in that position. He is not the first mediator. Many serious names and organisations have tried already, if you know someone better, you are welcome to suggest.

His positive value is directly related to the fact, that he is still mediating. His money is least interesting, most important are the tasks solved by 🇺🇦 army.

🇹🇷 Turkey:

Unlikely that 🇹🇷 will agree to give drone technologies to 🇷🇺.

🇹🇷 is protecting its interests, it's simultaneously waging war with 🇷🇺, and using it for its interests. RosAtom is building nuclear power plant in 🇹🇷, there is S-400 air-defence sold to 🇹🇷, but it's in interests of 🇹🇷, not as allies.

Weapons:

🇩🇪 IRIS-T air defence will be supplied by end of year. 🇺🇦 is still getting before 🇩🇪 army, after other export deals, it's not 🇩🇪 government fault.
🇩🇪 confirmed sale of 100 PzH-2000. If 🇺🇦 gets them in couple of years, it's serous force.

Total 🇺🇦 getting over 300 self-propelled howitzers (🇬🇧 20, 🇵🇱 60, 🇩🇪 100, and more)
🇷🇺 peak was couple of weeks ago, 🇺🇦 weapons increasing, new aircraft, new HIMARS, new combat drones, new armoured vehicles, guided munition, and a lot of interesting equipment.

The only way out for 🇷🇺 is Korea scenario, when they invest in completely destroying 🇺🇦 offensive potential.

End of thread. Next broadcast on Friday.