Thread by @FeliciaDMoraru

Highlights of the last day of #RWRI17 (parting wisdom)

▪️No rumor can be considered true until officially denied.
▪️The world is more fat tailed than you think.
▪️In the risk taking world, only the hyperparanoid will survive.
▪️If it makes sense to buy an option, don't buy it.

▪️Correlation is not causation
correlation. What is the correlation when something huge happens?
▪️Under fat tails, maximum estimate of the population average is more appropriate than sample mean.
▪️Treat the companies you are investing in as your own business.

▪️Every genuine service is genuine in its own way, but all fraudulent schemes are alike. Human nature stays the same irrespective of technology. Wolves of XYZ Street target the same weaknesses.
▪️Nobody blows up on the know.

▪️There is a sucker and a suckee inherent in every transaction which involves risk managers rather than risk takers.
▪️F(X) matters in real life. X matters in the Platonic cave.

▪️Risks are scalable. Courage is appropriate at a smaller scale, precaution is imperative at a bigger one. Don't confuse irresponsibility with courage.
▪️ I get it, being smart is cool, but have you tried being anti-fragile?

▪️In a universe dominated by fat tails the only thing that matters is survival.
▪️Do NOT make any estimates of a single variable (under fat tailed distributions).

▪️Don't assume that the worst scenario that can happen is the worst scenario that has happened. (Lucretius problem).
▪️Extreme events contain a plethora of information. In extremistan, one can only learn from extreme occurrences, everything mediocre is noise.

I would like to express my gratitude to the speakers and everyone who contributed to changing so many minds.

Thank you!

@nntaleb @RDouady @financequant @ArieHaziza @priavegliano @DrCirillo @trishankkarthik @vtchakarova @dzviovich @TalebAlexander @yaneerbaryam @ghchammas