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András Tóth-Czifra 🇺🇦 Profile picture
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Jul 28 • 2 tweets • 1 min read
Rosstat's industrial production figures for June, on a map. The slow but steady deterioration continues and the E-W split is even more pronounced. The hardest hit sector is still car manufacturing, but metallurgy, electronics, chemical industry are also in trouble. Image
To compare this with May and April, see:

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More from @NoYardstick

András Tóth-Czifra 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jul 23
So you're shocked and appalled by Viktor Orban's speech today, in which he talked about Hungarians not being "mixed-race" and not wanting to become that?

I understand the revulsion, but not the shock. Orban has been saying such things for years. A long 🧵
2015 October 30, at a conference, he speaks about organized ethnic replacement.
2016 March 15, in a speech Orban speaks about organized resettlement of foreigners to "reconfigure the ethnic foundations" of Europe.
Read 40 tweets
András Tóth-Czifra 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 7
In this somewhat rambling THREAD 🧵 on some recent developments in the Western discussion on Russia’s war against Ukraine, I would like to focus on our incapacity to keep being focused on the tasks at hand and not to be distracted by our own impatience and fantasies.
As Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth month, a degree of exhaustion is capturing Western countries and organizations providing support to Ukraine. This is inevitable.
This exhaustion comes amidst a looming global food crisis caused by Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s ports and its attacks on Ukraine’s agricultural land, and often poor understanding of how and when sanctions implemented against Russia will work.
Read 29 tweets
András Tóth-Czifra 🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 25
It's really bleak to think that we have to resort to the simplest arguments, but lawmakers resisting gun control legislation after all these years sd ask themselves how long before someone who sdn't own a gun turns a semi-automatic rifle against their loved ones or against them.
I want to be very clear that I'm not suggesting someone should - on the contrary. Political violence is unacceptable. But we all need to understand that no one is safe from the lunatics & terrorists that a handful of senators don't want to do anything about. Not even they are.
I immigrated to the United States, bought property and pay taxes here. Despite all its flaws, I have come to appreciate many things about the country. But the abject failure of the country's political institutions to resolve pressing and obvious problems is very, very worrying.
Read 6 tweets
András Tóth-Czifra 🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 10
Indication that the Kremlin may not cancel the September regional elections, after all, or at least not yet: the regular spring gubernatoropad has started. The unpopular heads of two "hot" regions, Tomsk and Kirov, are leaving their offices.
zona.media/news/2022/05/1…
For context: "gubernatoropad" is the practice of changing governors in potentially problematic regions months before an election in order to avoid protest votes against unpopular incumbents. Tomsk and Kirov are both regions where United Russia's popularity is quite low.
Other interesting regions with gubernatorial elections include Karelia (low United Russia popularity), Buryatia (very high per-capita number of military casualties), Kaliningrad (war-induced industrial breakdown) and Sverdlovsk (the governor's public spat with Solovyov).
Read 17 tweets
András Tóth-Czifra 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 18
Starting a thread🧵on "mega-projects" in the regions being cancelled or suffering postponements due to Russia's war on Ukraine.
1. Sibur and Sinopec announced in April that they are “reconsidering” the implementation of the Amur Gas Chemical Complex, which was due to open in 2024, due to sanctions on the delivery of high-tech equipment. As of March, the project was 37.8% ready.
rbc.ru/business/08/04…
The project, which is 40% owned by Sinopec, is worth ~$10 bn and is the largest investment project in the otherwise fairly depressed region. The plant itself is supposed to supply polymers to the Chinese market, and become the largest factory of basic polymers in the world.
Read 12 tweets
András Tóth-Czifra 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 3
Germany's minister of foreign affairs says stronger sanctions & more help to Ukraine are coming, but doesn't offer details.

The way to go is a full gas and oil embargo, expanding SWIFT & currency sanctions on all Russian banks and ramping up weapons shipments, including jets.
Orban, even if he remains in power, can likely be strong-armed into supporting an embargo. Today he was notably vague on the future of the government's key cheap energy policy when asked & his European alliances are under heavy strain.
Another argument for an embargo is that EU countries will have to prepare for an abrupt stop of Russian energy supplies within the next weeks or months anyway. I see this coming up more and more often in the German press too.

Who initiates this can make a lot of difference.
Read 4 tweets

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