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Jul 29 25 tweets 36 min read
#ViktorOrban had a speech that made waves last week. I watched it so you don't have to.A thread.The #Hungarian prime minister went to #Romania in the middle of the #Carpathians in a region where a sizable minority of around 1 million #Hungarians have lived for centuries. They /1
were sent by the #Empire as settlers & have been living isolated, hundreds of km from the border with #Hungary proper, maintaining their language, identity, surrounded by a majority of #Romanians. The choice of the location matters as the audience lives there (star)/2
in beautiful surroundings. #Hungary has been supporting this minority investing in #agriculture #schools loans, building new sports arenas while the #Romanian government has been tolerant of this encroachment on sovereignty to maintain #social #peace good relations /3
In #Ukraine where #Hungarian minorities live in the region of #Zakarpathia, the situation is different. #minorities are oppressed, teaching in #Hungarian is limited, so #Hungary has been very strongly advocating for linking any support to #Kiev to /3 hhrf.org/on-our-radar/h…
better treatment of its minority. I have worked in #Zakarpathia have seen that locals do not care about #RussianUkrainianWar & are rather sympathetic to #Russian motives because they feel #Ukraine is oppressing them. Even the #NYT cannot unsee it /4 nytimes.com/2022/06/16/wor…
So #Orban speech is directly targeting its own #Hungarians praising the situation where their identity has been preserved, condemning #Ukraine for trying to curb it. This message clearly resonates with his public. But the speech he had also touched the #European crisis /5
He mentioned the #demographic crisis which he links to the anti-traditional anti-family values promoted by the #EurupeanUnion institutions including the #LGBT movement. " In #Hungary father is a man, mother is a woman , there is no place for this crazy gender ideology "he said./6
In his discourse, he links demography to a #spiritualdecline of #Europe because those leaders such as #Macron who support migration have betrayed #Europe. " These are not nations any more, their population will be replaced by more than 50 % migrants " in his words. Then he /7
observes the "decline" of the #West facing numerous geopolitical challenges, the rise of #China conflict with #Russia #WarInUkraine. On the latest, #Orban position is that " as a #Hungarian i want to protect my country from war. " #EU needs a new . /8 msn.com/en-us/news/wor…
strategy. Linking it all together is what he calls the failure of #European leadership to grasp the situation, the lack of capacity of the current leaders. Obviously, this speech is at the opposite of the current mainstream media narrative. There were /9
many outraged reactions from the #progressist side with calls to isolate #Hungary calling him further away than ever from #EuropeanUnion values accusing him of being #Putin's friend after his government went to #Moscow to negotiate a gas deal /10 politico.eu/article/viktor…
Now as a disclaimer I was in #Hungary with #OSCE mission for the latest elections as #analyst without going into confidential assessments, I was amused to see how shocked most #EU colleagues were with the results (crushing #Orban victory).Living in a bubble in #Brussels is not/11
going to be helpful when trying to understand what is going on in the real world, whether you like it or not reality is more stubborn than any bubble. #Hungarian voters value the kind of things #Orban is doing, whether is support for #traditions, subsidies for energy or stay /12
of #WarInUkraine policy. But an even more important issue is that far from feeling #ashamed #ostracised by other #EU colleagues there is a strong belief in #Orban s vision that he is on the right side of history. The #reply from the #Romanian #MFA/13 adevarul.ro/news/politica/…
is a perfect example of the out-of-touch bureaucratic pro-establishment discourse aimed at conveying to the #EU that "we are firmly on your side", the kind of people who were shocked by #Trump victory or #Brexit vote. And yes #Orban sounds narrative like the #US conservatives/14
one, and yes #Orban will be speaking at the #American conservative convention next week. Far from being annoyed by his narrative being away from the mainstream, he embraces. In his words "#Hungary & other #CentralEuropean countries are now the true /15 talkingpointsmemo.com/news/cpac-schl…
#Europe, the true heirs of the cultural-historical traditions of the continent. He is on a #crusade to "save" " protect "#Europe which makes this stupid ad by #RenewEurope a tool serving #Orban in this crusade. When mainstream #European leaders criticise, quote #Orban messages/16
they are playing exactly the game he wants them to play, showing that " he is not like them " which is exactly what he wants because he appeals to the #EU public with the very popular message: #EU is run by #idiots who don't care about your concerns (#energy #war #inflation /17
#Identity #security). The kind of measures #Orban took (#energy #food price caps subsidies, #bank #loans price cap) are popular in all #EU countries even if not implemented by the current leaders. And the threats to cut #EU funding are also playing in his favour as #Hungary /18
has already rejected #EU post covid reconstruction funds considering the conditions attached to them unacceptable. If you find it funny or weird that such a small country like #Hungary truly believes it can lead #Europe show the right way you know /18 telex.hu/english/2021/0…
little about # Hungary's self-sense of identity role in #European history. #Orban narrative is well crafted to continue this tradition: from being a key player in the #AustroHungarian empire, an entity with many nationalities, cultures not unlike #EU/19 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austria-H…
to taking a key role in the 1848 #Revolution, to starting the first communist regime in #Europe even before it was fashionable in power in the #USSR already in 1919 & again starting a major real anti #communist uprising at the height of #stalinism triggering a #soviet /20
invasion in #1956, there is a strong #Hungarian tradition to believe they are both showing the way & inspiring other #European nations with their understanding of historical major trends. A final word on the link between #Romanian & #Hungarian /20 local-life.com/budapest/artic…
sovereign movements. Because of #historical animosity towards strong #Hungarian leadership. #Romanian nationalists resent #Orban's visits in #Transylvania where the #Hungarian minorities live (along a large majority of #Romanians).However on most of the issues the narrative of/21
of #Romanian sovereignist align with the #Hungarian ones: tradition identity lack of respect for current #EU leadership, rejection of the #LGBT #greendeal #climateemergency agenda, #economic solidarity rejection of #covid restrictions #lockdowns /22

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Jul 28
So I posted yesterday the video of the shooting done by #Vogue with #Zelensky. It had thousands of views & many outraged reactions. I've read #ZelenskyVogue so you don't have to. A thread. Basically in social psychology, it's called #brand affiliation. We are talking about an/1
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Jun 11
The original thread on what you are not being told about #EU sanctions on #oil has led many people to address many useful questions. The main questions are : tehnical (why is it so hard to make the transition ) , geopolitical (what we can expect) & operational (what other /1
solutions are possible). Assuming the #EU sanctions against #Russia will be maintained here is what we will happen technically, geopolitically, operationally. 1) technically speaking it is very complicated to change The original thread is here. /2
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Jun 10
Why the #oil embargo #sanctions is a disaster for #Europe & what you are not being told. A thread. Inflation of energy prices are is at all time high. In #USA which is a large producer #fuel #gasoline are up 48 % & 100 % over a year. Situation is much worse in #EU
In fact #EU is pumping more #oil from #Russia than before the #WarInUkraine. The #sanctions decided by the #EuropeanUnion are going to be imposed gradually & touch only #oil transported by sea. But you are not being told the truth . #Energy prices are hitting hard the consumers/2
will continue to grow while #Russia will make more money off gas & exports this year by exporting less, yes you read that right, because when you reduce the offer, the prices go up. But surely our leaders know what they do & have a long term strategy./3 msn.com/en-us/money/ma…
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Jun 9
What people don't understand about military political operations & weapons support.Simply destroying the adversary army, conducting regime change, killing the leadership & installing a puppet, as well as even creating an army to support your new regime. WONT WORK. IS NOT ENOUGH/1 Image
Because we have seen the #Americans do this
MANY TIMES. And it does not work. #Vietnam for 15 years & tens of billions invested to prop up a failed govt. In #Iraq, destroyed #Saddam's army, installed the puppet government, trained a new army were there for nearly 20 years /2 Image
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Jun 8
I ve watched #Merkel presentation so you dont have to. Here it is the summary . Basically she tries to protect her legacy. At this moment she is under heavy fire having resigned as chancellor. Many accuse her of being to " kind " to #Putin, too tolerant/1 express.co.uk/news/politics/…
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was that it was too dangerous to accept #Ukraine in the #EuropeanUnion #Nato at the summit in 2008. As a matter of fact i attended this summit & i can testify that #Putin was received as a partner, impressed the audience, got the attention of everyone even #GeorgeBush. /3 Image
Read 10 tweets

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