Thread by @wartranslated

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: twitter.com/savaadaak.

Text version: wartranslated.com/day-156-july-2…

- Battlefield update:

🇷🇺 attacks on Pisky and Avdiivka, where 🇺🇦 built up defence for 8 years.

There are no logical objectives for that.
Donbas becomes deserted, 🇷🇺 relocating to Kherson-Zaporizhye. Experienced 🇷🇺 units remaining near Izium.

Everything else - Soledar, Siversk, Bakhmut - only units on their 1st and 2nd [year of service] and private military company fighters, total about 7-8 BTGs. They will have aviation and artillery support, but they are unlike like regular forces.

🇷🇺 might attempt to push at Mykolaiv.

- Russia's potential near-future plans:

1) Switch to a complete defence, short counter-attacks, making 🇺🇦 spend reserves on attacks, lose and not capture anything significant, finish with Minsk-3 agreement.

2) do counter-offensive against 🇺🇦, force 🇺🇦 to spend reserves on defence, grab more land and possibly create conditions for future offensive in half to several years.
3) Combine - first offensive, then defence, which judging by the amount of forces looks to be 🇷🇺 intent.

Such plan looks very complicated - main offensive, 2 side offensives, fake offensive (possibly 2), then return to Donetsk, then possibly Kharkiv. Complicated plans, which Russian are drawing now don't work, but simpler, 2-move plans do work.

Russian offensive expected approximately on 5th-6th August. Expecting battles in steppe. Medium-positive prognosis for 🇺🇦 win.

🇺🇦 military is being modest, they have learned their lessons, they plan according to resources, while 🇷🇺 military are still forced to realize drunken fantasies, often adjusting to the circumstances.

- Kherson:

🇷🇺 VDV is equipped for attack, not defence.

Their rear structures are half of normal army, which might have some advantage considering only 2 supply points, that 🇺🇦 will attack. Looks like 🇷🇺 wants to get rid of their paratroopers completely.
There were 12-15 BTGs already, now added 10 more, possibly can expect more.

Yesterday 800 vehicles (5-7 BTGs) crossed Kakhovka dam.

Bad news: 🇺🇦 offensive delayed a bit. Good new: perspective is better, as there will be nobody left to defend Kherson. 🇷🇺 offensive is th emost stupid thing, they can do (besides all-out mobilisation). It will save 🇺🇦 2 months of battles.

🇷🇺 will attempt to reach Kherson district borders before planned referendum in September.

- Olenivka

Phase of war is changing after massacre, which is probably not intentional.

On June 5 🇷🇺 propaganda channel discusses possible attack on PoW camp in Olenivka:

"Mi 6 is considering three possible options for using the MLRS supplied for Ukraine.

The delivery itself will take place on the night from Sunday to Monday, the cargo has already arrived at Rzeszow Airport.

Missions will be done by Armed Forces of Ukraine under the full control of the officers of the British Ministry of Defense, as was the case with the attack on the cruiser Moscow.

The first target is the Crimean bridge, but this is the most unlikely operation, since Crimea is closed by echeloned S-400 systems and a number of new air defense systems, and then the newest S-500 division.

The second goal is a prisoner of war camp in the village of Olenivka, where the Nazis from Azovstal and the military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are located.

The British want to frame the MLRS strike as an attempt by the Russian Armed Forces to hide "the execution and torture of prisoners, and then hype Bucha thematics"

The third target is Sevastopol, the center of the city or the base of the Black Sea Fleet is being discussed, but there is a risk of crossing into the air defense coverage area on Snake Island, since the range of the MLRS set now will be enough only when launched from the…

…Odessa region.
Kyiv is not yet considering a missile attack on Kursk or Belgorod, since the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has an understanding that the cost of this attack will be the destruction of the government city block."

Prisoners were moved to this building couple of days before. None of guards died.
Demolition experts, who evaluated photos said that explosion looks like not of external origin. Positions of bodies shows that part of them were dead before burning.

There are multiple versions about planned inspection, Prygozhin, explosives planted ahead, Grad attack after fire.
Most likely this was planned ahead, adding multiple variables - HIMARS, Azov, 🇺🇦 Presidential office.

Red cross requested visit at Olenivka camp, to check conditions.
🇺🇦 requests to 🇺🇳 U.N. and Red cross to send representatives and start investigation.

- Torture video:

There are more video like this unpublished.

🇷🇺 aim is to create emotional trauma, likely to provoke 🇺🇦 into turning to the same brutality, then 🇷🇺 has argument for the West - two brutal countries fighting, why do you want to support someone? Expecting more of this narrative in Western media.

Emotional trauma was widely used in Balkan wars, to degrade morale.
Both events day apart is not coincidence, 🇷🇺 aims for emotional trauma, narratives and reaction.

End of thread.