Liron Shapira Profile picture
Aug 2 6 tweets 5 min read
.@Helium supporters have been accusing me of FUD.

To encourage one another to stay positive, they cite exciting corporate partnerships such as... @Goodyear Tire & Rubber.

Maybe I can help them perform a sanity check before they pin their hopes on this promising "customer".
Believers of the Goodyear/Helium partnership envision a future where your vehicle connects to the internet... through its tires.

Inspiring.

I'd hate to burst their bubble that a Goodyear Ventures investment with the goal to "learn about new mobility" isn't proof of real demand.
To learn more, I watched this presentation by @AbhijitCVC of Goodyear Ventures:

Does Goodyear have a plan for giving tire sensor devices their own internet connection?

Not really, says Abhijit: "Assume we have the right sensors, and we don't yet..."
This slide presents Goodyear's next steps. They're going to "explore use cases", i.e. they don't yet have a clear one.

When you're pinning your hopes on a vague, futuristic-sounding slide from a corporate VC, you're on track to be a #BloatedMVP of Goodyear Blimp proportions.
I'm not spreading gratuitous FUD here. I've just heard enough startup pitches to call out the #HollowAbstractions.

The reality on the ground is that Goodyear has no compelling use case. Neither does Helium's LoRaWAN network to date.

I fixed that tweet for you, @AbhijitCVC.
@AbhijitCVC .@AbhijitCVC thanks for the pic of your team gluing a sensor to a tire, but the key question that remains unvalidated is whether a car's tires should be architected to connect directly to the internet using a decentralized network of LoRa hotspots.

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More from @liron

Aug 3
.@a16z, @Accel and @paradigm looked directly at a blatant Ponzi scheme, Axie Infinity.

They called it “play-to-earn” and invested $311M into its parent company.

Then it collapsed.

How Web3 VCs stumbled into funding a Ponzi. 🧵
First, let’s be clear that Axie really is a Ponzi scheme. To quote @matt_levine's newsletter from last month: “Axie Infinity is a Ponzi scheme”. Image
This viral Substack essay by @packyM, published July 19, 2021, is representative of last year’s peak VC hype around Axie: notboring.co/p/infinity-rev…
Read 21 tweets
Aug 1
Checking in on @a16z's $311M-led investment:

After recklessly deploying 900k LoRaWAN hotspots that no one wants, @helium is now focusing on... increasing the supply of nodes. 5G this time.

Once again, tech analysts warning lack of demand. Glad @benedictevans sees the problem! ImageImageImage
We can thank Web3 tokenomics for this wasteful and futile exercise.

But the original HNT token isn't enough. They're making up 2 new tokens!

Everyone's desperate to keep the music playing until "crypto winter" ends. HNT down 60% since Feb '22 round. Just get to the next pump... ImageImage
Helium team boasts about the rapid growth of 5G hotspots, 1900 so far.

I've heard from insiders they're serving $0 in end customer usage. Maybe their next focus should be on the demand side?

Unclear how the new $IOT and $MOBILE tokens will change all of that.

Here we go again. Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 26
.@Helium, often cited as one of the best examples of a Web3 use case, has received $365M of investment led by @a16z.

Regular folks have also been convinced to spend $250M buying hotspot nodes, in hopes of earning passive income.

The result? Helium's total revenue is $6.5k/month
Members of the r/helium subreddit have been increasingly vocal about seeing poor Helium returns.

On average, they spent $400-800 to buy a hotspot. They were expecting $100/month, enough to recoup their costs and enjoy passive income.

Then their earnings dropped to only $20/mo.
These folks maintain false hope of positive ROI. They still don’t realize their share of data-usage revenue isn’t actually $20/month; it’s $0.01/month.

The other $19.99 is a temporary subsidy from investment in growing the network, and speculation on the value of the $HNT token.
Read 11 tweets
Jul 24
Alright for the next 24 hours, as an Ideological Turing Test, I'll be taking the pro-Web3 position!

Throw me your best skeptical arguments and I'll do my best to respond from a place of enlightened optimism about crypto/blockchain/Web3.

#OppositeDay
I'm doing this because I believe it's important to be able to pass the Ideological Turing Test.

I get the sense that pro-crypto people can't pass it on my views, but that I can pass it on theirs. So let's try it.

lesswrong.com/tag/ideologica…
So far, half of my content in this thread is real clarifications to people's misunderstandings of blockchain 😂
Read 6 tweets
Jun 15
Today @pmarca was asked by @tylercowen to explain a Web3 use case.

I clipped this gem from 28:08 of Conversations With Tyler.

Highly recommended...
Previously on Web3 Use Case Punk'd:
Read 8 tweets
May 16
Another day, another friendly interview helping @a16z get their crypto "thought leadership" out there: econtalk.org/marc-andreesse…

I took notes so you don't have to listen to the hour 👇
24:57: When asked about blockchain use cases, Marc says with a laugh, "I live in the future, so for me [crypto's use cases] have already happened"

And supposedly those use cases are...
1. Currency and store of value
2. DeFi
3. NFTs
4. Gaming
"And dozens more in the pipeline"
Read 10 tweets

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