Josh Marshall Profile picture
Aug 3 11 tweets 3 min read
Vote counting slowed down overnight with abt 95% reporting. No (abortion rights) is steady at around 59% support vs 41%. It seems unlikely to tick down more than one or two percent at most. This was considered a too close to call race with an advantage to Yes.
2/ When a result is this lopsided & this unexpected for most political observers it’s not only a political earthquake but a sign many political professionals have seriously mistaken the political terrain. When there’s a political backlash as strong as the one against Dobbs …
3/ and one party is as firmly tied to it as Republicans are here, clearly the opposing party needs to grab on to it with both hands. Abortion rights will be central to numerous races this fall. But Democrats need to make the connection as explicit and tangible as possible.
4/ The way to do that is to make a firm pledge that if Democrats hold the House and add two Senate seats they will make Roe into federal law in January 2023. They are at present kinda sorta suggesting something like that, maybe. But clarity is everything. Give us this …
5/ specific result and this is specifically what we will do. Kansans didn’t turn out in these lopsided numbers to make a statement about Dobbs or Roe. They did so because they knew that the outcome of this one vote would immediately and dramatically effect the right …
6/ to a safe and legal abortion in the state. Democrats need to approximate the same clarity at the federal level, both to undo Dobbs and also to secure their hold on Congress. The way to do that is to get all 48 (non-Sinema/Manchin) senators to make a firm pledge that …
7/ if the House is held and two Democratic senators added they will vote for a Roe law in January 2023 AND suspend the filibuster rules to guarantee that bill gets an old fashioned up or down majority vote. So far 31 Senate Democrats have said they’ll do that (though not …
8/ yet on the specific date). All but two of the 17 are basically there but still refuse to say it clearly. There are two potential hold outs. Angus King of Maine and Mark Warner of Virginia. They will all certainly fall in line quickly if constituents apply pressure now.
9/ In fact here’s a handy list of where every Democratic senator stands on this key question. Can you use this list to pinpoint where pressure needs to be applied. Pick up the phone. Old school. It gets results.…
10/ The political power of Roe and Reform has been clear to many people for months. Kansas removes all doubt. Voters can get the remaining senators to fall in line quickly enough by making their views clear to the remaining senators. And if they do the midterm can take …
11/ the dynamics - the clarity and this for that nature of the vote - of last nights referendum in Kansas.

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More from @joshtpm

Aug 4
A lot of the energy behind the "cynical Dems behind MAGA crazies" storyline is driven by pundits who feel very, very off balance needing to say constantly that the GOP is now a sectarian revanchist party thats a threat to democracy over&over because it remains true. Again & gain.
2/ This more or less non-story is like a pressure valve for the built up angst of bothsides journos who've been desperate for something to work with for months. For those who don't like it, I respect the opinion. But I'd add these four points. First of all, in some cases ...
3/ where Dems were allegedly boosting MAGAs its not even true. PA Gov is a good example of this. Where this has happened is in a number of House contests, run from out of the DCCC. Second, let's be clear what this "boosting" or "running ads for" actually means.
Read 12 tweets
Aug 2
Lots of people imagine that Sinema's arc/goal is to land in a rich gig from her business boosters after she leaves the Senate. That's actually pretty doubtful. The people who make the big bucks as lobbyists are the ones with connections and deep relationships ...
2/ certainly in their own party and ideally in both. They're also shmoozers. That's what lobbying is. They are also people who logged a lot of years, which is usually key for friendships, connections, etc. Sinema is reviled by Democrats nationwide. And while her Senate ...
3/ colleagues don't share just the same rage, she's not popular with them either. She is also, notoriously, not a people person - an understatement. Republicans like her for screwing Democrats but they're not her people either. All of which is to say that Sinema is basically ...
Read 9 tweets
Aug 2
one thing I didn’t know (and didn’t get a chance to mention in this essay) is that there were voice letters for at least some soldiers and sailors in ww2. You could record a short message in a booth and a single sized record wld be produced. The relative described in this essay…
2/ made at least 4 of them in 1943 and 1944. The technology of course existed. but doing at scale like that is something different entirely and I didn’t know this existed. I don’t know how widely available it was. The examples I’ve seen so far are from Jewish and Catholic …
3/ affiliate organizations of the USO. But I don’t know why it would be limited to those. One reference I saw to it online said there were 350 booth operating during the war and roughly 350k recordings made.that sounds like a lot and it is a lot. But it actually suggests …
Read 6 tweets
Jul 31
Start with stipulating that Trump is an inveterate sleazebag. But I think some of the online chatter abt Ivana Trumps burial at Bedminster is out ahead of the facts. There clearly is tax preference for cemeteries. And it seems like Trump will get a tax break for his little …
2/ mini family graveyard on the golf course. But people seem to think that those graves make the whole resort into a untaxed property. I don’t think that’s true. It seems more like that particular area of land is untaxed. There are also some laws about how a land can’t be …
3/ seized in a civil proceeding if there’s a cemetery on it. So maybe that’s an angle. To be clear, I’m not saying the people talking a tax break are wrong. But I think people are interpreting the benefits of that tax preference as being more substantial than they are.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 26
Boom! We've got our first score change on the Roe and Reform list. This morning Sen. Duckworth's office reached out to @Kate_Riga24 to alert us to Duckworth's position change on Friday.… via @TPM
2/ The number of Senators in the "Keeping It Vague" category falls from 11 to 10. Now that groups includes only Booker, Cardin, Cortez-Masto, Durbin, Heinrich, Hickenlooper, Kaine, Rosen, Schumer and Tester.
3/ Six more are trying to keep under the radar in the "No Comment" category: They're Carper, Coons, Kelly, Menendez, Ossoff and Reed. (Isn't it weird that Neither of NJ's senators are in the Yes camp yet? Creeping Ozism? Who knows. Get it together NJ!)
Read 4 tweets
Jul 25
New and updated "Roe and Reform" Tracker. Where all 50 Democratic Senators currently stand on committing to voting for a Roe law AND suspending the filibuster rules to guarantee an up or down vote.… via @TPM
2/ There are or will likely be 48 Senators ready to commit. But a number still need some persuading. Here's your list to get persuading them. Thinking of a DIY guide to legislative whipping. 30 Senators have already committed since Dobbs came down.
3/ Another 11 support a Roe law and some version of filibuster reform but haven't yet stated definitively that they'll combine the two. Six still haven't commented at all. And then two are potential holdouts. Sen. King of Maine and Warner of Virginia.
Read 7 tweets

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