Thread by @YouAreMyYield

A lot has happened over the past weeks regarding $WAVES, $VIRES and $USDN. Let's dig in🧵👇

First of all, for background I refer you to my thread that covers everything that has happened this year:

https://twitter.com/YouAreMyYield/status/1534192755827785732

Second of all, there are still people who call @sasha35625 heroic because he took on the bad debt on @viresfinance. Let's cut the crap, he is the 'mysterious whale' that made this mess in the first place and he took over his *own* accounts.

He doesn't even bother to cover his tracks anymore at this point. The big $NSBT whale account that was used to create hundreds of millions of USDN to pump $WAVES is now being used by the account that took over the bad debt to burn USDN: wscan.io/3P87zrU6UmJq7w…

With that out of the way, what is the current situation on $VIRES and $USDN? VIP-26 was passed on Vires. It forces USDT&C account balances over 250k to choose between accepting $USDN linearly vested over a year instead of their initial deposit, or have their APY lowered to 0...

...and no repayment guarantees. I expect whales to choose the first option as it at least gives them some of their money back as long as USDN peg survives. Odds are low that when USDN fails there is a lot of money for repayments for people that chose the second option.

Because of VIP-26, at most 420M USDN will hit the market over the time span of a year. It will put tremendous pressure on the backing ratio. Backing ratio has been under 20% for a while now. The #Waves bulls will tell you a recapitalization token called Surf...

...will 'fix' the BR, but c'mon, 5xing the TVL because of a new token??

As I have shown in this thread there is really no demand from the market to hold USDN, so the VIP-26 sell pressure needs to be absorbed by the $WAVES backing:

https://twitter.com/YouAreMyYield/status/1546473390109851648

Very rough math tells you that with a current backing of 125M$ in $WAVES and 1M+ USDN sell pressure per day coming in, USDN can barely survive three months. Furthermore, more USDN needs to be liquidated to facilitate repayments for accounts sub 250k.

And then there are the insiders. You think the people that made 100M+ USDN from a huge pump and dump scheme will now patiently sit on their fat stack of USDN, waiting till it looses peg? Here is already a 6M NSBT swap that can be traced back to insiders: wscan.io/CytiYrVxdrkLh9…

Going forward I expect that the constant $USDN selling unleashes millions of $WAVES that will all hit the market & keeps putting pressure on $WAVES price. One scenario I think is likely, is that at some point $NSBT swaps will be throttled in order to preserve some backing.

That can cause some relief to the $WAVES price but will be the end for USDN. It's very unlikely that everything will be normal in weeks, with no participants suffering any loss, but anyone that has been following Sasha should know his promises r worthless.

https://twitter.com/sasha35625/status/1551932282734354433?s=20&t=tdIxmO5iren4Xp0ph0hfzg