The lack of urgency within government in relation to the security of the UK's electricity supply this winter is alarming. The National Grid's base case scenario forecasts just about enough energy to meet demand but they appear to assume that the UK is based in a perfect utopia. 
I was only in the gov’s energy security team briefly but based on my understanding parts of the UK will face blackouts this winter if any of the following occur: 1) Russia majorly kerbs Nord Stream 1 gas supply to Europe (they already have),
2) Norway provides only minimum guaranteed levels of gas to the UK due to EU price premiums, 3) staff at Gassco, the UK-Norway pipe operator, strike (this would cause the biggest UK crisis since the Blitz), 3) Europe exports less energy to the UK through interconnectors (likely),
4) we have low wind pressure for a long period which reduces our wind power output, 5) fewer Liquified Natural Gas imports due to major global competition, 6) there’s a colder winter than average (like last winter), or 7) we use up all our minimum stored gas.
The biggest levers to keep the lights on have already been pulled, such as the government begging one of the UK’s three remaining coal plants not to close and busting a gut to extract as much gas from UK waters as possible. Shame we turned off our largest nuclear plant this week.
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