A night's sleep has given me no better perspective on the gratuitous hobbling of @PredictIt and I have no specific knowledge of the behind-the-scenes lobbying that led to it, but I feel compelled to highlight a few perhaps obvious things...
1/
1/
Over 8 years, PI built the now thriving domestic political trading community in this country, over years of good faith blood, sweat and tears. Doesn't mean they own it and or that they invented it, but they're its spiritual father for 10s of thousands of US traders.
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2/
PI has been a good actor in an industry rife with bad ones. As an industry participant over 15 years (who worked inside PI from the start for 5), I can attest they consistently do what's legal, ethical, fair & in the best interest of the community, traders & market integrity.
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They took an established, above-board regulatory path (the one 1st plied by Iowa Electronic Markets decades ago) and expanded it into a much more broadly successful platform.
By "broadly" I don't just mean they innovated new market categories or built a large trader network.
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By "broadly" I don't just mean they innovated new market categories or built a large trader network.
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PI's broader success elevated the art & science of political forecasting generally. It introduced countless thousands of politi-curious new users to the fields of probabilistic forecasting and risk management.
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It inspired boomers to join scads of Discord servers and zoomers to tune into hours of arcane Congressional committee hearings, whether in search of a trading edge or further engagement with the community.
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PI inspired the launch of countless blogs, podcasts & content channels (inc this 1, almost immediately after concluding my day-to-day involvement with them in 2020) where traders, pro gamblers, academics, journos & politicians can shoot the shit and prognosticate.
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The totally unique market data emanating from PI (under-the-hood access to which Wall St firms clamored for, but weren't given) was not only cited regularly in the political & financial media, but was basis for meaningful academic work, notably but not solely by @HarryDCrane.
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PI's 24-hour pricing across so many political events (margin of victory in a primary, a senator-by-senator confirmation vote tally, a short-term wobble in an approval rating) was both more real-time than polling and more granular than black box forecasting.
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That's presumably why they've become both a thorn in the side of certain legacy forecasters and an indispensable input to a new breed of election modelers.
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I don't know if the CFTC's action spells the end for PredictIt as we know it. Admittedly, it doesn't look great, though their operating partner Aristotle has set up an automated tool to make it easier for you to voice your support to the regulators.
tinyurl.com/53dfdwce
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tinyurl.com/53dfdwce
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I also don't know any better than any of you whether another industry participant helped to guide the regulatory hammer.
I do know industry participants should want PI in the game.
Trailblazing as Intrade was, by way of contrast, PI is everything they turned out not to be.
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I do know industry participants should want PI in the game.
Trailblazing as Intrade was, by way of contrast, PI is everything they turned out not to be.
12/
PI grows the pie.
They're a good actor.
They're the ideal ambassador for this vital, nascent asset class, and its educational, civic & commercial potential.
If you're a competitor, that's who you should want to compete with.
eom
They're a good actor.
They're the ideal ambassador for this vital, nascent asset class, and its educational, civic & commercial potential.
If you're a competitor, that's who you should want to compete with.
eom
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