Kremlin has a problem. Since it didn't declare war, it can't jail the military who just refuse to go to fight to Ukraine. But senior officers can add bad remarks to their personal files. Like this:
"Inclined towards alcohol and drug abuse, towards theft and anal orgies"
Last remark about "anal orgies" is very illustrative. It's not so much about homophobia as a Westerner could presume as about the prison culture. Prison culture permeates society, especially the army, police and state security *far* deeper than foreigners would believe
Prison has very complex sexual code. First and most importantly, *active* homosexualism is okay. It's not even perceived as homosexualism, but as a way to reinforce the social hierarchy. Passive role though is shameful and is reserved for the non-touchable, the "cocks" (петухи)
To become a cock you need to be "moved down" (gang raped, usually). Now you become a non touchable. Nobody can touch you except for sex, otherwise they also become the ritually unclean (законтачиться). If they want to beat you, they should do it with legs, not by hands
Social hierarchy has a spatial dimension. The cocks get their own place in the prison canteen so that normal ones can avoid contact with them. They must sleep near the toilet, ideally on the floor. They get a special spoon with a hole, marking their outcast status
Why do I discuss a fringe topic so meticulously, you may ask? Because it is not fringe. Prison culture shapes the Russian public discourse. Consider Lavrov who "mocked" the French pointing out to their national symbol. A very witty observation, apparently
When Lavrov looks at the Gallic rooster, first thing he thinks about is a prison cock. Why? Because he is deeply influenced by the prison culture, as nearly 100% of the Russian ruling class. Prison culture defines their thinking and behaviour, they just can't think in other terms
Prison culture largely defines the modern Russia. You can't understand its discourse, its sociopolitical hierarchy, its economy, if you don't take into account the deep effect of prison values on how the Russian society works. Russian ruling elites think in prison terms, too
I strongly recommend this drama of 1989, "Беспредел". It's only in Russian but I hope someone will add the English subtitles. I will argue that you can't get how either Russian politics or economy work without understanding such basics as pictured here
Regarding the initial photo, I took its from a Telegram channel "Military ombudsman". Basically he is a lawyer who helps the Russian military to sue the higher ups or to defend from their lawsuits. Since February he seems to be buried under work. The end
PS A political prisoner Ivan Astashin produced a very succinct but good description of the prison sexual code here. It's in Russian but you can google translate it. It gives good understanding about a system of values, set of taboos, etc
What I am saying is that "capitalist reforms" are a buzzword devoid of any actual meaning, and a buzzword that obfuscated rather than explains. Specifically, it is fusing radically different policies taken under the radically different circumstances (and timing!) into one - purely for ideological purposes
It can be argued, for example, that starting from the 1980s, China has undertaken massive socialist reforms, specifically in infrastructure, and in basic (mother) industries, such as steel, petrochemical and chemical and, of course, power
The primary weakness of this argument is that being true, historically speaking, it is just false in the context of American politics where the “communism” label has been so over-used (and misapplied) that it lost all of its former power:
“We want X”
“No, that is communism”
“We want communism”
Basically, when you use a label like “communism” as a deus ex machina winning you every argument, you simultaneously re-define its meaning. And when you use it to beat off every popular socio economic demand (e.g. universal healthcare), you re-define communism as a synthesis of all the popular socio economic demands
Historical communism = forced industrial development in a poor, predominantly agrarian country, funded through expropriation of the peasantry
(With the most disastrous economic and humanitarian consequences)
Many are trying to explain his success with some accidental factors such as his “personal charisma”, Cuomo's weakness etc
Still, I think there may be some fundamental factors here. A longue durée shift, and a very profound one
1. Public outrage does not work anymore
If you look at Zohran, he is calm, constructive, and rarely raises his voice. I think one thing that Mamdani - but almost no one else in the American political space is getting - is that the public is getting tired of the outrage
Outrage, anger, righteous indignation have all been the primary drivers of American politics for quite a while
For a while, this tactics worked
Indeed, when everyone around is polite, and soft (and insincere), freaking out was a smart thing to do. It could help you get noticed
People don’t really understand causal links. We pretend we do (“X results in Y”). But we actually don’t. Most explanations (= descriptions of causal structures) are fake.
There may be no connection between X and Y at all. The cause is just misattributed.
Or, perhaps, X does indeed result in Y. but only under a certain (and unknown!) set of conditions that remains totally and utterly opaque to us. So, X->Y is only a part of the equation
And so on
I like to think of a hypothetical Stone Age farmer who started farming, and it worked amazingly, and his entire community adopted his lifestyle, and many generations followed it and prospered and multiplied, until all suddenly wiped out in a new ice age
1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.
In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings
Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain
According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.
Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important.