Hasu⚡️🤖 Profile picture
Aug 6 9 tweets 1 min read
after some reflection, here's my take on a eth pow fork

1. many, incl me, have predicted for years that miners would fork ethereum to extract the final juice out of their investment. it doesn't take nostradamus to see this.
2. a lot of hashpower does not give this chain any significant value.
3. the chance that a major stablecoin will honor redemptions on this fork over eth2 is not 5%, its not 1%, its a cold zero. anyone who says otherwise is a grifter.
4. if anything goes wrong with the merge, it just gets delayed until the problems are fixed and then the merge happens a few weeks later.
5. no one in the eth community apart from miners want to stay on proof of work.
6. this fork chain will be a giant retail trap. miners, exchanges, traders are all trying to talk it up for their own self-interested reasons.
7. no one wants to use or build ethpow. i have studied the etc, bch, and bsv forks and these were actually dividing their respective communities. in all cases, their minorities were actual believers and not in it for a short-term trade. ethpow doesnt have 1% of that support.
8. crypto is full of bad projects that only exist to dump on retail, but that doesn't make it ok to support them. the fact that ghost chains like etc still exist does not vindicate that point.
9. although most alt chains today are forks of ethereum, none has forked ethereum state. not because they didnt think of it but because its a completely stupid idea.

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More from @hasufl

Jun 29
I just proposed a series of simple governance changes to @MakerDAO that would address many problems that exist in governance today. These include a general lack of vision and strategy as well as low accountability to MKR holders.

At the core of every organization is what I call the "governance supply chain". Most organizations start with flat hierarchies but eventually run into the scaling limits of that approach. Hierarchy is introduced to unlock specialization, division of labor, and accountability. Image
Maker lacks a coherent vision, leading the constant discussion around the following battle lines: Image
Read 11 tweets
Jun 25
Bancor was actually a much bigger scam than I think anyone anticipated. In return for protection from IL, LPs anchor themselves 100% to the value of BNT. But BNT, and all of their deposits, can go to zero in days.
Remember -- the way that AMMs work is that if you hold assets A + B in an LP, and A goes to zero, the AMM will sell all of B on the way down until the LP is stuck with 100% A -- and a full loss of capital on their hands.
In Bancor's case, the death spiral goes like this:
1) external shock causes IL => more BNT is printed
2) in expectation of supply inflation, market sells off BNT
3) more IL => more BNT printing => more selling => more IL => more BNT printing, etc.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 20
Bancor’s shell game of IL hiding is collapsing. They print new BNT to compensate underwater LPs and call it “IL protection”. The cost is transferred to BNT holders via inflation, which causes further IL to all other BNT pairs, and leads to further inflation. A death spiral.
You can see it clearly in the price performance of these DEX tokens:

😕UNI -20%
😕SUSHI -20%
😱BNT -61%

Now Bancor is pulling the plug to stop the bleeding. Didn’t even take three weeks for my prediction to play out.

More reading:
(performance of last two weeks)
Read 4 tweets
Jun 10
Excited to co-author what I see as a revolutionary proposal for @LidoFinance and Defi in general: our "LDO+stETH dual governance" system addresses the principal-agent problem between stakers and LDO holders by giving veto power to stETH holders.
We're starting from the following problem statement:

Lido protocol is governed by the LDO token and this carries certain risks for stakers and by extension Ethereum itself.
At the root of this problem is a principal-agent problem:

By choosing to stake with Lido, stakers (the principal) authorize LDO holders (the agent) to manage their stake on their behalf.

The risk is that the agent acts in a way that is not in the principal's best interest.
Read 8 tweets
Jun 7
As MEV is becoming even more important in PoS Ethereum, Flashbots is about to release mev-boost, a neutral middleware that allows any builder to openly compete in making the best blocks. This is great for validators, staking pools, and Ethereum itself.
Block production consists of (1) building the best block from all available transactions, and (2) proposing this block to the network. The increasing difficulty of block building due to MEV is a centralizing force in Ethereum and the solution is to separate the two roles cleanly.
This technique is called proposer-builder-separation and is rolled out to Ethereum in three stages:
Read 13 tweets
May 15
After seeing the discussion yesterday, I want to add some even more high-level thoughts on stETH/ETH exchange rate dynamics

thx @rleshner and @koeppelmann for sparking this follow up thread
stETH has some negative carry (as discussed below) but importantly it has positive carry as well!

the positive carry is the yield that stETH accrues compared to ETH.

for example, after one year, 1 stETH will be 1.07 stETH whereas 1 ETH is still 1 ETH.
the market/investor sentiment determines whether the NET carry of stETH vs ETH is positive or negative.

when it‘s positive, more people want to create stETH from ETH (start staking)

when it‘s negative, more people want to redeem stETH for ETH (unstake)
Read 8 tweets

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