Thread by @DrEvanHarris

Thread on misleading think tank spiel by @ce_pickles, the Director of the right-leaning @ReformThinkTank. I gave her the chance below (to correct/clarify) what she said on #bbcaq ("NHS is 46% of day to day public spending by 2025") at 38.30 - 39.00 bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0… 1/17

https://twitter.com/ce_pickles/status/1555928121148424192

What she said had ALREADY been debunked TWICE last yearr by fact-checkers @FullFact.
See fullfact.org/economy/health… (when The S*n used Ms Pickles' wording) & then fullfact.org/health/health-… (when the Mail still used it regardless). But @ce_pickles went even further to mislead. 2/17

The true figure for NHS spend share is *only 20%*.
This is when ALL public spending (eg on welfare, & pensions) is included. Ie including "annual managed public expenditure" (AME) not just "departmental expenditure limits" (DEL - but what she chose to call "day-to-day") 3/17

Also Ms Pickles' figures were "46% by 2025". The tabloids, when corrected - in 2021 - by @FullFact, had said 40% (misleadingly quoting IFS and Resolution figures - which Ms Pickles told me in a tweet she relied on). Ms Pickles has not said where "46% by 2025" comes from. 4/17

Also @ce_pickles said "that means there is not going to be the money for skills and education.. for local govt". But "spending X on item A" doesn't mean "less spending on non-A" ..unless you're assuming *cuts* to govt expenditure while maintaining (relatively) NHS spending. 5/17

Also, Ms Pickles said this would be less money for "environmental investment, housing" which implied her figures (46% or 40%) included capital spend - which "day-to-day public spending definitely does NOT include.
She *must* know this as it's obvious even to us basic wonks. 6/17

Cross-bench peer Victor Abedowale (Chair, NHS Confed) - who obviously knew the true figures - tried twice to interrupt to correct, but on each occasion @ce_pickles would not let him, and she even doubled down, saying "none of the things I have said are inaccurate". Cripes! 7/17

Did @ce_pickles KNOW what she was saying was misleading? I think so, cos you can't find the false figures of NHS share of spending being 40% without finding the fact-check.
But she ought to have known since - as she puffed - Reform is "doing a huge amount of work on health" 8/17

So why did she choose to use misleading figures on nat radio, given the risk of being exposed? What was purpose behind presenting misleading figures?
This is now surmise, but do @reformthinktank want to present the NHS as *too expensive*? @ce_pickles said on the programme..
9/17

.."A lot of our outcomes are not great if you look internationally, and it's very expensive".
But it's NOT very expensive.
The UK spend on health per head (and as a share of GDP) is *low* compared to most G7 countries and the UE average. See for eg health.org.uk/news-and-comme…. 10/17

And although UK tax take - at 35% of GDP - is historically high for UK at the moment, that is low compared to most G7 countries and the EU average.
So, if we chose to, we could spend more on health, without cutting other area, and still be a relatively low tax country. 11/17

We also have far fewer beds, docs and nurse per head than most other comparators and we have a more unequal society compared to them. That is why some of our outcomes are worse than our comparators. These poor outcomes are NOT because the NHS is funded from general taxation 12/17

See "OECD figures suggest that the UK has among the highest levels of income inequality in the European Union (as measured by the Gini coefficient)" commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-brief…. 13/17

Now @ce_pickles said on Any Questions that we have to tackle public health as more of a priority than building hospitals. This is generally right, but the facts are that hospital capacity is simply inadequate at the moment, and more spending is needed on social care. 14/17

If Ms Pickles & @reformthinktank continue to spout misleading figures on NHS spend & international comparators then I would not trust them on the NHS, especially when they are not fully transparent on which wealthy individuals are paying them 15/17

Because (a) Ms Pickles twice on Any Questions demanded an "honest conversation" on the NHS (total irony fail), & (b) there are US and UK corporations waiting/lobbying to exploit the NHS for profit in provision of services, & waiting/lobbying for an insurance-based model 16/17

Finally, if the BBC continue to have think-tanks on political panels, they should let the audience know their political persuasion (for transparency) and have regard to how secretive they are - as per businessinsider.com/who-funds-you-…. Note Reform - in Band C - aren't the worst. 17/17