Many see NGOs as a bunch of ultra-privileged Westerners focused on satisfying their ego without any regard for the cost they inflict on the people they're supposed to "help". This view is unfair. It's too generalising. But the @amnesty report is playing to the worst stereotypes🧵
To start with, an argument about "Ukrainian forces putting civilians in harm’s way" by defending ignores the objective reality. Which is: it's the Ukrainian retreat that is putting civilians in harm's way. On the Russian occupied territory they'll be subject to unhinged violence
It is the Ukrainian retreat that made the worst atrocities of this war possible. Once the Ukrainian army retreats, civilians are at the mercy of the Russian military & the paramilitary. No wonder that they become victims of indiscriminate violence
Russian record in Ukraine is typical. It's just a common Russian way of waging wars, not much different from what we've seen in Syria or Chechnya. Mariupol shared the fate of Aleppo and Grozny. Ukrainians suffer in Russian hands much like Syrians did novayagazeta.ru/articles/2019/…
The same Wagner mercenary company that turned the torturous execution of a Syrian into their proud symbol is now fighting in Ukraine. Their leader Prigozhin is now touring Russian prisons to recruit new soldiers, reportedly focusing on those jailed for murder or armed robbery
Cut off head and hands of a Ukrainian POW put on stakes in the Russian-occupied Popasna very much resemble the Syrian war scenes. This behaviour is so typical for the Russian military that I have no idea why the world had ignored it before. Good thing they finally noticed
It is not the Ukrainian defence that endangers civilians, it is their retreat. With every new town ceded, more and more civilians remain with no protection against the Russian army and paramilitary. They'll be at their mercy and nobody will come to help
Furthermore, a line between civilians and combatants may be blurry. Russian pro-war journalist reported that in occupied Lisichansk he saw only one young person. Literally all the youth in the city left with the Ukrainian army. Almost all were involved in the territorial defence
I find this Russian Z-activist's testimony highly valuable, especially because Lisichansk he is describing is located in Donbass that Russians are supposed to "liberate". These are the people that @amnesty wants to leave one on one with the Russian army
That's what @amnesty report misses completely: the stance of local population. Russian sources give the picture of the locals' extreme hostility to the invaders and the will to resist. Locals are not necessarily the hapless victims as amnesty would portray them
The war that doesn't put civilians in the harm's way is the rich man's delusion. If you believe in such absurdity you probably never fought against a much stronger invader with a propensity for extreme violence. You probably can't even imagine yourself in such situation
Much of anger against @amnesty and their kind comes from them ignoring objective reality. What is worse, they find a moral high ground in ignoring reality, unaware that their ability to ignore it derives from their position of ultra privilege
Staying in the position of ultra-privilege, being carefully sheltered from the real world consequences of their actions, @amnesty dares to preach to those who face existential risks daily and indeed risk losing everything, should they miscalculate only once
Worst of all, @amnesty has actively endangered the Ukrainian civilians. Russian authorities endorse their messages because it helps them to avoid responsibility for shelling the Ukrainian residential quarters. Amnesty International just gave them the free pass to do so
I disagree. I would insist that the victim has the absolute right and in this case even the moral obligation for self defence, whatever the ultra-privileged may preach. End of🧵
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We have successfully documented the entire Russian missiles industry, mapping 28 of its key enterprises. Read our first OSINT sample focusing on the Votkinsk Plant, a major producer of intercontinental ballistic missiles. How does it make weaponry?
The strategic missiles industry appears to be highly secretive and impenetrable to the observers. And yet, it is perfectly OSINTable, based on the publicly available sources. This investigation sample illustrates our approach and methodology (31 p.)
Our first and invaluable source is the state propaganda, such as the federal and regional TV channels, corporate media, social media and so on. It provides abundant visual evidence, particularly on the hardware used in the production of weaponry.
In August 1999, President Yeltsin appointed his FSB Chief Putin as the new Prime Minister. Same day, he named him as the official successor. Yet, there was a problem. To become a president, Putin had to go through elections which he could not win.
He was completely obscure.
Today, Putin is the top rank global celebrity. But in August 1999, nobody knew him. He was just an obscure official of Yeltsin's administration, made a PM by the arbitrary will of the sovereign. This noname clerk had like 2-3% of popular support
Soon, he was to face elections
By the time of Putin's appointment, Russia already had its most favoured candidate. It was Primakov. A former Yeltsin's Prime Minister who broke with Yeltsin to contest for power. The most popular politician in Russia with massive support both in masses and in the establishment.
In Russia, the supreme power has never ever changed as a result of elections. That simply never happened in history. Now that is because Russia is a (non hereditary) monarchy. Consequently, it doesn't have any elections. It has only acclamations of a sitting ruler
Obviously, there has been no elections of Putin in any meaningful sense. There have been only acclamations. And that is normal. His predecessor was successfully acclaimed with an approval rate of about 6%. Once you got the power, you will get your acclamation one way or another
Contrary to the popular opinion, Russia doesn't have any acclamation ("election") problem. It has a transition of power problem. Like Putin can get acclaimed again, and again, and again. But sooner or later, he dies. What next?
My team has documented the entire Russian missile manufacturing base. That is 28 key ballistic, cruise, hypersonic and air defence missile producing plants associated with four corporations of Roscosmos, Almaz-Antey, Tactical Missiles and Rostec
The link is in the first comment
Our report How Does Russia Make Missiles? is already available for download
By the next weekend, we will be publishing the first OSINT sample, illustrating our methodology & approach. The rest of our materials will be made available laterrhodus.com
Key takeaways:
1. Missile production is mostly about machining 2. You cannot produce components of tight precision and convoluted geometry otherwise 3. Soviet missiles industry performed most of its machining manually
That was extremely laborious and skill-intensive process
No one gets famous by accident. If Alexey @Navalny rose as the unalternative leader of Russian opposition, recognised as such both in Moscow and in DC, this indicates he had something that others lacked. Today we will discuss what it was and why it did not suffice 🧵
Let's start with the public image. What was so special about the (mature) @navalny is that his public image represented normality. And by normality I mean first and foremost the American, Hollywood normality
Look at this photo. He represents himself as American politicians do
For an American politician, it is very important to present himself as a good family man (or woman). Exceptions do only corroborate the rule. Notice how McCain defends @BarackObama
Should Putin just suddenly die, @MedvedevRussiaE is the most likely compromise candidate for the supreme political power. He is the inaugurated President for God's sake. Which means, the anointed King.
"Not a real king", "Figurehead", "Nobody takes him seriously" is just intangible verbalism. Nothing of that matters. What matters is that he is the inaugurated President, consecrated by God. Opinions are subjective, anointment is objective
It is the fact
Medvedev may be one single person in the entire Russian establishment with a decent chance to keep power, should Putin go. For this reason, he may not even need to fight for power. The power will very probably be handed to him