THREAD: What should we make of the search of Donald Trump's home at Mar-A-Lago?
1/ Today, Trump announced that the FBI raided his estate at Mar-A-Lago, including his private safe. Since then, multiple sources have confirmed that the FBI executed a search warrant at his residence. nytimes.com/2022/08/08/us/…
2/ Without knowing more, the execution of a search warrant at Trump's home is a very serious matter. You don't need to be a lawyer to figure out that you're in big trouble when the FBI executes a search warrant at your home.
3/ Typically I would advise a client that a FBI raid at your home means you will likely face charges.
That's because a federal judge determined there was good reason to believe a federal crime was committed and that evidence of the crime was in your home.
That's because a federal judge determined there was good reason to believe a federal crime was committed and that evidence of the crime was in your home.
4/ To be clear, the execution of a search warrant doesn't necessarily mean that the evidence points to the owner of the home as the person who committed the crime. It just usually works out that way.
5/ To obtain the warrant, DOJ had to present a detailed affidavit to a judge walking through the evidence they have that a crime was committed and providing some reason to believe evidence of that crime is at Mar-A-Lago right now. It's not enough to show it was there months ago.
6/ It is reasonable to presume that top DOJ leadership, including Attorney General Merrick Garland, personally approved this warrant, which appears to be the first warrant executed at the home of a former President.
That suggests to me that they think the case is going places.
That suggests to me that they think the case is going places.
7/ However, this presumption is somewhat at odds with recent reporting from both New York Times and the Associated Press that the search warrant is related to classified material taken from the White House by Trump when he left office.
8/ James Comey was right when he testified that the DOJ typically does *not* prosecute cases involving the mishandling of classified material unless that material was deliberately transferred to a third party.
That suggests to me that there is something we don't know here.
That suggests to me that there is something we don't know here.
9/ It's hard for me to believe Merrick Garland would authorize FBI agents to obtain a search warrant solely to find classified material, given that mishandling that material rarely results in a case that DOJ would charge.
That suggests to me that there is some plus factor here.
That suggests to me that there is some plus factor here.
10/ So there is a lot we don't know right now.
To be clear, if current reporting is accurate, this is *not* about the fake electors scheme that also involves Trump. That is a separate issue and it's not clear whether records related to that scheme were at Mar-A-Lago.
To be clear, if current reporting is accurate, this is *not* about the fake electors scheme that also involves Trump. That is a separate issue and it's not clear whether records related to that scheme were at Mar-A-Lago.
11/ The FBI could seize evidence of other crimes in plain view, but unlike narcotics, the evidentiary value of documents is often not apparent at first sight.
It is also possible that FBI interviewed employees and others during the search. That is a common tactic.
It is also possible that FBI interviewed employees and others during the search. That is a common tactic.
12/ The bottom line is that we don't know enough yet to understand what this relates to and how serious of jeopardy Trump is in.
But you don't need me to explain to you that the Feds executing a search warrant at Trump's residence should be alarming to him.
But you don't need me to explain to you that the Feds executing a search warrant at Trump's residence should be alarming to him.
13/ At the very least, it suggests that Merrick Garland has the will to go after Trump and makes criminal charges of Trump much more likely than they were before this news broke.
I don't believe Garland would have obtained this warrant if he thought it was leading nowhere. /end
I don't believe Garland would have obtained this warrant if he thought it was leading nowhere. /end
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