1. Well, Russia already did mass mobilisation in Donbass. It is the Ukrainian citizens that are the main Russian cannon fodder. I have no idea why this is not discussed more often
2. Mass mobilisation in Russia would be a stupid decision
That's the context for the @amnesty argument about civilians being put on the harm's way by the Ukrainian defence. Once a Donbass city fells to Russia, males 18-60 will be press-ganged to the army and then recycled in the frontal attacks on the Ukrainian positions. That's reality
Scenario under which civilians won't suffer just does not exist. From the Russian perspective population of the conquered territory is just the cheap cannon fodder which they send to frontal attacks with WWII weapon. Entire male population of Donbass is being recycled by Russia
Recruiters would literally hunt for males on Donetsk and Luhansk streets. Many were living on their work to avoid coming out to the street for months. Anyone who stepped outside would be caught, press-ganged and sent to die
The news from April. A famous Donetsk pianist was KIA when fighting for Mariupol (on Russian side). How did he get into the army though?
Social media give some context:
"Philharmonie was cheated! they were told to come to record a video... but instead they were all taken in the unknown direction!!"
"We were told the same, they cheated us too. Opera, circus. Donbass"
"He was not a volunteer! Like all musicians!"
You can watch an early video of this war with the Donbass civilians forcibly mobilised for the Russian colonial troops. They are called "1st and 2nd Donbass Army Corps" but are fully controlled by Russia. Cannon fodder are Ukrainian, but 100% of generals and seniors are Russian
Here you see the forcibly mobilised Donbass civilians who were forced to fight for Mariupol and now declare they don't want to fight any further. A few declarations like this came out this summer
Another declaration of forcibly mobilised Donbass civilians who do not want to fight anymore. That's literally the press-ganged cannon fodder, the colonial troops
Strelkov on how Russia recruited its cannon fodder in Donbass. It launched a total mobilisation in Donetsk and Luhansk. Students, professors, STEM and humanities. [What he doesn’t mention is workers, but that's very common, too] Everyone can be pressganged including those over 50
Forced total mobilisation of the Donbass males who are then sent to fight for Russia as the most expendable cannon fodder Putin has is *the* major war crime of this Russia's invasion. Russia is forcing Ukrainian civilians to fight for it
Total mobilisation of the Donbass people into the Russian colonial troops is *the* major war crimes of the last months. The fact that it is not in the centre of the public discussion makes me to question integrity of the entire media & NGO bureaucracy that chooses to ignore it
Every time the Ukrainian army retreats, civilians are being put on the harm's way. Russian proxies from the DPR and LPR will hunt for the males on streets, catch everyone they can find, pressgang them and recycle in the frontal attacks. They're 100% disposable
Almost complete silence of media and NGO on the total mobilisation in Donbass is shoking. It must be in the centre of discussion, not some fringe issue few heard about. Obscurity of this crime makes me question both competence & integrity of those who choose to ignore it. The end
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1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.
In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings
Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain
According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.
Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important.
One thing you need to understand about wars is that very few engage into the long, protracted warfare on purpose. Almost every war of attrition was planned and designed as a short victorious blitzkrieg
And then everything went wrong
Consider the Russian war in Ukraine. It was not planned as a war. It was not thought of as a war. It was planned as a (swift!) regime change allowing to score a few points in the Russian domestic politics. And then everything went wrong
It would not be an exaggeration to say that planning a short victorious war optimised for the purposes of domestic politics is how you *usually* end up in a deadlock. That is the most common scenario of how it happens, practically speaking
Global politics are usually framed in terms of kindergarten discourse (“good guys” vs “bad guys”) with an implication that you must provide “good guys” with boundless and unconditional support
BUT
Unconditional support is extremely corrupting, and turns the best of the best into the really nasty guys, and relatively fast
Part of the reason is that neither “bad” nor “good” guys are in fact homogenous, and present a spectrum of opinions and personalities. Which means that all of your designated “good guys” include a fair share of really, really nasty guys, almost by definition.
Purely good movements do not really exist
That is a major reason why limitless, unconditional, unquestioning support causes such a profound corrupting effect upon the very best movement. First, because that movement is not all
that purely good as you imagine (neither movement is),
Let's have a look at these four guys. Everything about them seems to be different. Religion. Ideology. Political regime. And yet, there is a common denominator uniting all:
Xi - 71 years old
Putin - 72 years old
Trump - 79 years old
Khamenei - 86 years old
Irrespectively of their political, ideological, religious and whatever differences, Russia, China, the United States, Iran are all governed by the old. Whatever regime, whatever government they have, it is the septuagenarians and octogenarians who have the final saying in it.
This fact is more consequential than it seems. To explain why, let me introduce the following idea:
Every society is a multiracial society, for every generation is a new race
Although we tend to imagine them as cohesive, all these countries are multigenerational -> multiracial
In 1927, when Trotsky was being expelled from the Boslhevik Party, the atmosphere was very and very heated. One cavalry commander met Stalin at the stairs and threatened to cut off his ears. He even pretended he is unsheathing he sabre to proceed
Stalin shut up and said nothing
Like obviously, everyone around could see Stalin is super angry. But he still said nothing and did nothing
Which brings us to an important point:
Nobody becomes powerful accidentally
If Joseph Stalin seized the absolute control over the Communist Party, and the Soviet Union, the most plausible explanation is that Joseph Stalin is exercising some extremely rare virtues, that almost nobody on the planet Earth is capable of
Highly virtuous man, almost to the impossible level