Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Aug 9, 2022 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
1. Well, Russia already did mass mobilisation in Donbass. It is the Ukrainian citizens that are the main Russian cannon fodder. I have no idea why this is not discussed more often

2. Mass mobilisation in Russia would be a stupid decision

3. That doesn't mean Kremlin won't do it
That's the context for the @amnesty argument about civilians being put on the harm's way by the Ukrainian defence. Once a Donbass city fells to Russia, males 18-60 will be press-ganged to the army and then recycled in the frontal attacks on the Ukrainian positions. That's reality
Scenario under which civilians won't suffer just does not exist. From the Russian perspective population of the conquered territory is just the cheap cannon fodder which they send to frontal attacks with WWII weapon. Entire male population of Donbass is being recycled by Russia
Recruiters would literally hunt for males on Donetsk and Luhansk streets. Many were living on their work to avoid coming out to the street for months. Anyone who stepped outside would be caught, press-ganged and sent to die
The news from April. A famous Donetsk pianist was KIA when fighting for Mariupol (on Russian side). How did he get into the army though?
Social media give some context:

"Philharmonie was cheated! they were told to come to record a video... but instead they were all taken in the unknown direction!!"

"We were told the same, they cheated us too. Opera, circus. Donbass"

"He was not a volunteer! Like all musicians!"
You can watch an early video of this war with the Donbass civilians forcibly mobilised for the Russian colonial troops. They are called "1st and 2nd Donbass Army Corps" but are fully controlled by Russia. Cannon fodder are Ukrainian, but 100% of generals and seniors are Russian
Here you see the forcibly mobilised Donbass civilians who were forced to fight for Mariupol and now declare they don't want to fight any further. A few declarations like this came out this summer
Another declaration of forcibly mobilised Donbass civilians who do not want to fight anymore. That's literally the press-ganged cannon fodder, the colonial troops
Strelkov on how Russia recruited its cannon fodder in Donbass. It launched a total mobilisation in Donetsk and Luhansk. Students, professors, STEM and humanities. [What he doesn’t mention is workers, but that's very common, too] Everyone can be pressganged including those over 50
Forced total mobilisation of the Donbass males who are then sent to fight for Russia as the most expendable cannon fodder Putin has is *the* major war crime of this Russia's invasion. Russia is forcing Ukrainian civilians to fight for it

Meanwhile, @amnesty
Total mobilisation of the Donbass people into the Russian colonial troops is *the* major war crimes of the last months. The fact that it is not in the centre of the public discussion makes me to question integrity of the entire media & NGO bureaucracy that chooses to ignore it
Every time the Ukrainian army retreats, civilians are being put on the harm's way. Russian proxies from the DPR and LPR will hunt for the males on streets, catch everyone they can find, pressgang them and recycle in the frontal attacks. They're 100% disposable
Almost complete silence of media and NGO on the total mobilisation in Donbass is shoking. It must be in the centre of discussion, not some fringe issue few heard about. Obscurity of this crime makes me question both competence & integrity of those who choose to ignore it. The end

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More from @kamilkazani

May 17
No offence, but this is a completely imbecile, ignorant, ridiculous framing. I have no explanation for all this debate except for a complete & determined ignorance of the foreign policy making class, and their refusal to learn literally anything about the material world.
"Components" framing makes sense when we are discussing drones. Why? Because drones are literally made from the imported components. You buy like 90% of them in China, and may be you make like 10% domestically. For the most part, you just assemble what you bought in China.
Not the case with missiles. Most of what the missile consists of, including its most critical, hard to make parts is produced domestically. Why? Because you cannot buy it abroad. More often than not, you cannot buy it in China. You can only make it yourself, domestically.
Read 9 tweets
May 12
Contrary to the popular opinion, Andrey Belousov's appointment as a Minister of Defense makes perfect sense. From the Kremlin's perspective, war is primarily about industry & economy. Now Belousov is the central economic & industrial thinker (and planner) in the Russian gov.
Born into a Soviet Brahmin economist family, Belousov is an exceedingly rare case of an academician making a successful career in the Russian gov. Even more noteworthy, he rose to the position of power through his academic work and publications.

This is unique, ultra rare.Image
Belousov's career track:

1976-1981 Moscow State University ("economic cybernetics"). Basically, economics, but with the heavy use of then new computers.
1981-1986 Central Economic Mathematical Institute
1986-2006 Instutute of Economic Forecasting
2006-2024 Government
Read 8 tweets
May 7
If you want to imagine Russia, imagine a depressive, depopulating town. Now on the outskirts of a town, there is an outrageously over-equipped, overfunded strategic enterprise that has literally everything money can buy in the world. It feels like a spaceship from another planet
Strategic industry is extremely generously equipped. Western companies look scoundrels in comparison. That’s why I am so sceptical about the whole “corruption” narrative. Not that it’s wrong. It’s just that it is the perspective of a little, envious bitch.
What needs to be funded, will be funded. It will actually be overfunded and most literally drowned in money. Obviously, overfunding the strategic sector comes at the cost of underfunding almost everything else (like urban infrastructure). That’s why the town looks so grim.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 29
We have successfully documented the entire Russian missiles industry, mapping 28 of its key enterprises. Read our first OSINT sample focusing on the Votkinsk Plant, a major producer of intercontinental ballistic missiles. How does it make weaponry?


Image
The strategic missiles industry appears to be highly secretive and impenetrable to the observers. And yet, it is perfectly OSINTable, based on the publicly available sources. This investigation sample illustrates our approach and methodology (31 p.)

assets-global.website-files.com/65ca3387040186…
Image
Step 1. State Propaganda.

Our first and invaluable source is the state propaganda, such as the federal and regional TV channels, corporate media, social media and so on. It provides abundant visual evidence, particularly on the hardware used in the production of weaponry.Image
Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 22
In August 1999, President Yeltsin appointed his FSB Chief Putin as the new Prime Minister. Same day, he named him as the official successor. Yet, there was a problem. To become a president, Putin had to go through elections which he could not win.

He was completely obscure.Image
Today, Putin is the top rank global celebrity. But in August 1999, nobody knew him. He was just an obscure official of Yeltsin's administration, made a PM by the arbitrary will of the sovereign. This noname clerk had like 2-3% of popular support

Soon, he was to face elections Image
By the time of Putin's appointment, Russia already had its most favoured candidate. It was Primakov. A former Yeltsin's Prime Minister who broke with Yeltsin to contest for power. The most popular politician in Russia with massive support both in masses and in the establishment. Image
Read 20 tweets
Mar 17
In Russia, the supreme power has never ever changed as a result of elections. That simply never happened in history. Now that is because Russia is a (non hereditary) monarchy. Consequently, it doesn't have any elections. It has only acclamations of a sitting rulerImage
Obviously, there has been no elections of Putin in any meaningful sense. There have been only acclamations. And that is normal. His predecessor was successfully acclaimed with an approval rate of about 6%. Once you got the power, you will get your acclamation one way or another
Contrary to the popular opinion, Russia doesn't have any acclamation ("election") problem. It has a transition of power problem. Like Putin can get acclaimed again, and again, and again. But sooner or later, he dies. What next?
Read 7 tweets

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