Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Aug 9 14 tweets 5 min read
1. Well, Russia already did mass mobilisation in Donbass. It is the Ukrainian citizens that are the main Russian cannon fodder. I have no idea why this is not discussed more often

2. Mass mobilisation in Russia would be a stupid decision

3. That doesn't mean Kremlin won't do it
That's the context for the @amnesty argument about civilians being put on the harm's way by the Ukrainian defence. Once a Donbass city fells to Russia, males 18-60 will be press-ganged to the army and then recycled in the frontal attacks on the Ukrainian positions. That's reality
Scenario under which civilians won't suffer just does not exist. From the Russian perspective population of the conquered territory is just the cheap cannon fodder which they send to frontal attacks with WWII weapon. Entire male population of Donbass is being recycled by Russia
Recruiters would literally hunt for males on Donetsk and Luhansk streets. Many were living on their work to avoid coming out to the street for months. Anyone who stepped outside would be caught, press-ganged and sent to die
The news from April. A famous Donetsk pianist was KIA when fighting for Mariupol (on Russian side). How did he get into the army though?
Social media give some context:

"Philharmonie was cheated! they were told to come to record a video... but instead they were all taken in the unknown direction!!"

"We were told the same, they cheated us too. Opera, circus. Donbass"

"He was not a volunteer! Like all musicians!"
You can watch an early video of this war with the Donbass civilians forcibly mobilised for the Russian colonial troops. They are called "1st and 2nd Donbass Army Corps" but are fully controlled by Russia. Cannon fodder are Ukrainian, but 100% of generals and seniors are Russian
Here you see the forcibly mobilised Donbass civilians who were forced to fight for Mariupol and now declare they don't want to fight any further. A few declarations like this came out this summer
Another declaration of forcibly mobilised Donbass civilians who do not want to fight anymore. That's literally the press-ganged cannon fodder, the colonial troops
Strelkov on how Russia recruited its cannon fodder in Donbass. It launched a total mobilisation in Donetsk and Luhansk. Students, professors, STEM and humanities. [What he doesn’t mention is workers, but that's very common, too] Everyone can be pressganged including those over 50
Forced total mobilisation of the Donbass males who are then sent to fight for Russia as the most expendable cannon fodder Putin has is *the* major war crime of this Russia's invasion. Russia is forcing Ukrainian civilians to fight for it

Meanwhile, @amnesty
Total mobilisation of the Donbass people into the Russian colonial troops is *the* major war crimes of the last months. The fact that it is not in the centre of the public discussion makes me to question integrity of the entire media & NGO bureaucracy that chooses to ignore it
Every time the Ukrainian army retreats, civilians are being put on the harm's way. Russian proxies from the DPR and LPR will hunt for the males on streets, catch everyone they can find, pressgang them and recycle in the frontal attacks. They're 100% disposable
Almost complete silence of media and NGO on the total mobilisation in Donbass is shoking. It must be in the centre of discussion, not some fringe issue few heard about. Obscurity of this crime makes me question both competence & integrity of those who choose to ignore it. The end

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More from @kamilkazani

Aug 11
Most foreigners don't read Russian and are thus unfamiliar with the Russian internal discourse. Let me give you a single but illustrative example

Russian discourse is largely centred around how much our consumption standards have fallen or will fall. And nothing else matters Image
Russia is not an idealistic irrational society as many picture it. It's ultra-pragmatic culture. If you think it can be moved by the killed Ukrainian civilians (or Russian soldiers KIA), you are insane. Decrease in consumption standards, that's the *only* thing that really hurts
Putin's decision to start the war will be judged based on how much our consumption standards will fall. If they don't fall too dramatically, it means Putin made good or okayish decision. Everything's alright, just chill down. If they *do* fall though, oh, it's very painful
Read 9 tweets
Aug 10
Yes, of course

Tourism continues = Nobody in the West really cares about what's happening and all the "outrage" about the war is just BS rhetorics

Tourism stopped = They do care after all

Visa policy of the EU has huge political significance for internal Russian politics
Tourism issue is not just tourism issue. Russian public opinion interprets it as the marker of the *real* attitude of Europe. When Macron/Scholz express a deep concern, Russian public either laughs over it or interprets it as the de facto endorsement. Empty words, no action
Visa ban may be a small action, but it is an action. Unlike words visa ban has nonzero value. This can and will be interpreted as Europe being *actually* upset about what's happening in Ukraine and probably even somewhat angry. It's a sign of actual, unironic disapproval
Read 14 tweets
Aug 10
Great statistics, awful analysis. The fact that the majority of Russians will support either escalation or peace shows that they *do* have a clue. And the clue is - submission to the supreme power in whatever. The culture of obedience in Russia is unimaginable to a Westerner
That's why discussion about Putin's "rate of approval" figures is so dumb. It just doesn't matter. Yeltsin ruled perfectly with a rate of approval of like 6%. He waged wars, and won elections and commanded a perfect obedience being almost universally hated. Culture of obedience
It's analysts making arguments like "it's all Putin's fault, Russian people would accept whatever decision of the Supreme Ruler" who are clueless. It's not Bad Putin who is the problem here. It is the culture of perfect obedience to the ruler and his *whatever* decisions
Read 8 tweets
Aug 9
Fair enough. While Crimea had separatist attitiudes, Donbass did not. In fact, it was a major power center of pre-2014 Ukraine. While Russia is picturing Ukrainian political system as dominance of Galicia, picturing it as Donetsk & Dnipro dominance may be more factually accurate
I would argue that the actual political influence of the West Ukrainian interest groups on Kyiv politics had been exaggerated. While the influence of interest groups from the large industrial cities of the South East: especially Dnipro and Donetsk had been vastly underrated Image
In 2014 Donetsk interest group lost massively. They chose to welcome the Russian involvement. A dog was losing in a fight and called for the wolves to help. As a result, the Donetsk group not only lost everything but the Donbass itself turned into the country of depopulated ruins Image
Read 12 tweets
Aug 8
The visa issue may be complicated.

1. I think security concerns of Finland and even more so, Baltics, are legitimate. Let's be honest, Russia never really recognised independence of the latter. Furthermore, Baltic nations are very much dehumanised in the Russian public discourse
This sermon may be very illustrative. "Misfortunate" Ukraine is described more as a misled little sister who must be disciplined, reformed and put back in line. The priest's stance on Baltics is much harsher:

"What happens with Baltics, you can imagine yourself" tells he
2. Saying all of this, I see a certain contradiction between the moral logic and the pragmatic logic in the visa/residence permit policy. I also see a strong bias towards the former
Read 22 tweets
Aug 7
Many see NGOs as a bunch of ultra-privileged Westerners focused on satisfying their ego without any regard for the cost they inflict on the people they're supposed to "help". This view is unfair. It's too generalising. But the @amnesty report is playing to the worst stereotypes🧵
To start with, an argument about "Ukrainian forces putting civilians in harm’s way" by defending ignores the objective reality. Which is: it's the Ukrainian retreat that is putting civilians in harm's way. On the Russian occupied territory they'll be subject to unhinged violence
It is the Ukrainian retreat that made the worst atrocities of this war possible. Once the Ukrainian army retreats, civilians are at the mercy of the Russian military & the paramilitary. No wonder that they become victims of indiscriminate violence
Read 15 tweets

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