Thread by @DougKlain

We're still getting more details about today's strike against a Russian military airfield at Novofedorivka in occupied Crimea, but a few big implications are already clear.

Chief among them: The West has spent months investing in Ukraine—now we're starting to see the payoff.🧵

A defining feature of this war is how quickly and smartly Ukraine's employed sophisticated weapons systems from a West that hasn't always been eager to provide them.

Each time UA got something, it used it effectively and showed that more and better weapons wouldn't go to waste.

The latest example of this is HIMARS. The West was supremely reluctant to provide multiple launch rocket systems, but after pressure, finally provided them.

By all accounts, the system has been a game-changer.

HIMARS enabled Ukraine to strike farther behind enemy lines on ammo depots and command posts.

It's enough of a success that Ukraine's armed forces made a hype-video to taunt the Russians "kept awake at night" by HIMARS.

Which brings us to today's strike on the "Saki" airfield in Crimea.

It's still unclear how exactly the strike was pulled off or what kind of weapon was used. But the field is deep behind the front line, making this perhaps the deepest Ukrainian strike into occupied territory to date.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1556992053426458624?s=20&t=5AevyL9USQ0xBvGD-GYMxg

There's some speculation over whether this may have been done with a cruise missile, like the Ukrainian-made Neptune missile (famously used to sink the Moskva flagship) or if Ukraine may have finally been supplied with the ATACMS missiles Jake Sullivan previously ruled out.

@michaeldweiss & @JimmySecUK make an important point here: regardless of the weapon, Ukraine has the capability to strike hundreds of kilometers behind enemy lines, a capability Washington has been unwilling to give Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1557040119332438017?s=20&t=5AevyL9USQ0xBvGD-GYMxg

If Ukraine keeps making smart, tactical strikes like this to sap Russia's ability to sustain the war+deliver big wins like the potential liberation of Kherson, it can reinvigorate Western leaders suffering "Ukraine fatigue" and give every reason to keep the weapons coming.

Here's where I'll plug my recent @ForeignPolicy piece on why all these systems have put Ukraine into a position where it just might liberate its only major occupied city, and why that matters for continued Western support. foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/02/ukr…

Let's also recognize this strike's symbolism—much like the sinking of the Moskva, this was a highly visible attack on something the Russians thought was impossible to threaten.

Just look at these videos of nearby Russians lounging on the Crimean beach.

Russia has spent years practically importing its own people (many of them military families) into occupied Crimea, turning the peninsula into one big military base and persecuting locals (especially minorities like Crimean Tatars).

But today after this strike, the Kerch bridge was jammed up with Russians leaving.

Ukraine successfully retaking Kherson likely doesn't mean the liberation of Crimea is right around the corner.

But today's strike does mean Ukraine has a chance of knocking out Russia's key assets on Crimea, opening the path to liberating other territory in the south.

Today's strike also means the West is getting all the signals it needs from Kyiv that advanced weapons systems sent to Ukraine won't go to waste. Washington even clarified today that, yes, Crimea and the Kerch bridge are fair game.

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1557027629298880513?s=20&t=5AevyL9USQ0xBvGD-GYMxg

Ukraine hasn't officially taken credit yet for the strike or explained it, and the eventual statement will be worth watching.

But the MoD did put out a coy statement reminding Russians not to smoke near their ammunition. After a win like this, Ukraine's earned a taunt or two.

Big picture:

Strikes like today's mean we'll almost certainly see more major announcements of aid like yesterday's $1 billion from the US.

The West has invested money and weapons in Ukraine. Today's strike is a sign that these investments are paying real dividends.

@radiosvoboda also published satellite images taken of the airfield just a few hours before the strike, showing dozens of Russian jets out in the open. Taking these out could have major implications, especially for Russia's ability to defend Kherson in coming weeks.

If you liked this thread, check out my piece in @BulwarkOnline expanding on it with some of the new information we’ve received since Tuesday. thebulwark.com/ukraines-strik…