Thread by @BrynnTannehill

Why is the GOP panicking over the execution of the search warrant?

* The evidence gathered is likely to be extremely damning

* One of the potential penalties for mishandling such highly classified information is being barred from holding public office again 1/n

* GOP leaders believe they're screwed if Trump is forced to sit out the 2024 elections

* They're not convinced DeSantis would be popular enough to compensate

* The GOP responding by demanding things that they know cannot happen. Examples: 2/n

* The warrant is classified, likely because it is looking for things whose very code names are secret

* The CIPA court proceedings will be tightly closed, because most of the evidence is highly classified. GOP will use this to create outrage 3/n

justice.gov/archives/jm/cr…

* Speculative: but I believe some GOP leaders believe that the threat of mass violence targeting DOJ and law enforcement will deter DOJ from pursuing, or prosecuting, the matter, particularly if espionage is involved. 4/n

* I believe this is the most serious and realistic legal threat Trump has faced so far. The evidence is incontrovertible, and there's a paper trail (literally). Wiggling out of this is going to be difficult: this is like finding 100 kilos of cocaine in someone's house 5/n

* There's really no good legal explanation for why it was there.

* There is a process to declassify materials. It was not followed

* There's supposed to be a chain of custody. Again, violated. 6/n

* On his way out, part of the hand over process was getting read out, and signing an attestation that you've been read out and will not retain or disclose anything about the material you've been read out of. This one is likely to be crucial to the prosecution. 7/n

* There's a very limited number of people who were allowed to see some of this material. If you let people handle it who shouldn't, that's a crime. (Hi Mark Meadows!). If you knowingly failed to report it, that's a crime.

Plea bargains as far as the eye can see. 8/n

* Additionally, things found during the search could be used as part of other prosecutions. So, if the Jan 6 committee recommends that the DOJ prosecute, and they just so happen to TFG's phone from when he was in the WH, any texts there are fair game. 9/n

* Speaking of which, I'm hearing that Alex Jones' phone is an absolute gold mine. He never bothered to wipe it.

* Downside, if TFG was sending images of these documents to people who REALLY shouldn't have them when he was President, probably not prosecutable. 10/n

* I also suspect that if he did, the DOJ and CIPA court would not tell us about it.

* The contents are the safe are important: having them there could be considered part of mental state (i.e. you hide things you don't want seen, and hide if you know it's wrong). 11/n

* There's interest in the stuff TFG was flushing, and may be a part of evidence of pattern of behavior. But, it won't be the main thrust of a potential prosecution (I believe) 12/n

This is why the GOP is freaking out, attacking everything, making demands that cannot be met, encouraging violence, and generally backing TFG to the hilt. It's because this is the worst legal threat Trump has faced yet, and they think he will take the party with him. 13/n