Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Aug 10, 2022 14 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Yes, of course

Tourism continues = Nobody in the West really cares about what's happening and all the "outrage" about the war is just BS rhetorics

Tourism stopped = They do care after all

Visa policy of the EU has huge political significance for internal Russian politics
Tourism issue is not just tourism issue. Russian public opinion interprets it as the marker of the *real* attitude of Europe. When Macron/Scholz express a deep concern, Russian public either laughs over it or interprets it as the de facto endorsement. Empty words, no action
Visa ban may be a small action, but it is an action. Unlike words visa ban has nonzero value. This can and will be interpreted as Europe being *actually* upset about what's happening in Ukraine and probably even somewhat angry. It's a sign of actual, unironic disapproval
When you read complaints about the visa ban, keep in mind that when Russia attacked Georgia in 2008 the future leader of opposition Navalny called for deportation of all Georgians (whom he called "rodents") from Russia.

It's still in his livejournal btw
navalny.livejournal.com/274456.html Image
To sum up. Any signs of business as usual, including tourism, are viewed as acceptance/endorsement of Russia's policies. Russian people are no idiots. They get that if Russia's behaviour is unpunished, it means Russia got away with it. Putin is genius, his critics are imbeciles Image
European policies, including the visa policies have a great impact on the Russian discourse and internal politics. The better life in Russia will be, the more business as usual continues, the more Russian population will believe that everything's fine. Just chill down
Russia is extremely pragmatic and individualistic culture. Extremely. Considerations of abstract morals or humanism have *negative* value here, they're nearly universally mocked. Considerations of personal comfort and pleasure have enormous value, far more than in the West
Personal comfort is much more of a political factor in Russia than in Western Europe. If we don't feel significant discomfort, that means Putin is 100% right. It's personal comfort or discomfort that determines support of Kremlin or lack of it, not some BS moral considerations
To sum up, Russian public opinion is not influenced by pictures of the dead, of destroyed cities, of the cut off heads and hands. Nobody gives a fuck. They do give a fuck about personal comfort though. And the level of comfort directly correlates with the support of regime
If you want Kremlin to go on, minimise the personal discomofort of the Russian population. If you want Kremlin to reconsider, you need to act the other way around. Even small actions like stopping tourism have huge political significance as markers of *real* attitude of Europe
Saying all of this, I find it very important to keep a one way door to *somewhere* open for the Russian citizens who want to leave. I also think it's very important to work out a viable way of surrender with a green corridor to somewhere for the Russian soldiers in Ukraine
Effect will be non-linear. I don't think that the bulk of Russian forces will surrender. They won't or at least they won't for now. But even 1% of troops actually surrendering will have a huge damaging effect on the morals, destroying the mutual trust and arousing suspicion
Add to that reasonable monetary payments for sabotage guaranteed by rich countries/organisations and it may have a paralysing effect on the fighting force. All social systems operate on trust and that will be destroying it, especially when the first saboteurs get their payment
NB: these guarantees should be made by *rich* countries or institutions. Slavs don't believe in Slavic financial guarantees, but they do believe in the Western ones. German financial guarantee is way better than the Ukrainian one in this regard. The end

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More from @kamilkazani

Feb 25
No one gets famous by accident. If Alexey @Navalny rose as the unalternative leader of Russian opposition, recognised as such both in Moscow and in DC, this indicates he had something that others lacked. Today we will discuss what it was and why it did not suffice 🧵Image
Let's start with the public image. What was so special about the (mature) @navalny is that his public image represented normality. And by normality I mean first and foremost the American, Hollywood normality

Look at this photo. He represents himself as American politicians doImage
For an American politician, it is very important to present himself as a good family man (or woman). Exceptions do only corroborate the rule. Notice how McCain defends @BarackObama

"No, he's a decent family man, citizen"

In America one thing is tied with another
Read 23 tweets
Feb 19
Should Putin just suddenly die, @MedvedevRussiaE is the most likely compromise candidate for the supreme political power. He is the inaugurated President for God's sake. Which means, the anointed King.Image
"Not a real king", "Figurehead", "Nobody takes him seriously" is just intangible verbalism. Nothing of that matters. What matters is that he is the inaugurated President, consecrated by God. Opinions are subjective, anointment is objective

It is the factImage
Medvedev may be one single person in the entire Russian establishment with a decent chance to keep power, should Putin go. For this reason, he may not even need to fight for power. The power will very probably be handed to him

He is the rightful King -> guarantor of stabilityImage
Read 8 tweets
Feb 18
On Friday, @navalny died (most probably killed) in prison. This is a good time to discuss the prospects of Russian opposition and the future transition of political power, once Putin is gone. This is also a good occasion to debunk some pervasive myths on the mechanics of power🧵 Image
First, getting rid of @navalny was probably a correct decision on behalf of Kremlin. Execution of this murder may have been suboptimal (unprofessional, etc.). But the very idea to eliminate him was reasonable and makes total sense. There is nothing crazy or irrational about it
This remark may sound as cynical or paradoxical. So let me present you another paradox, which is yet to be fully processed by the political theorists. And the paradox is:

Bloody tyrants rule longer

The Russian history may possibly demonstrate this better than any otherImage
Image
Read 19 tweets
Feb 9
There is one subtle detail in Putin's narrative, that may be difficult for a foreigner to detect or grasp. There is nothing "autistic" or "obsessive" about it. There is nothing even personal.

95% of it was a standard Russian History textbook for 13-15 years oldImage
For a Westerner, Putin's narrative may sound like a bizarre, autistic rant, signifying some deep & obsessive interest in history. For a Russian, it's not. This is just a normal history textbook for the junior high school

That is what absolutely everyone has learnt as a teen
That's why Putin feels the need to describe everything since the 9th c. and the times of Rurik in the exact chronological order. He is retelling a standard history textbook from the very beginning
Read 4 tweets
Feb 4
By the late 20th c. Israel won. It vanquished and conquered. Emotions aside, this is exactly what happened. As the victor, Israel could choose between two workable options for what to do with its victory:

1) One state solution
2) Two states solution

It chose neither
One state solution. Annex the conquered land & give citizenship to the conquered.

Pro: Claim the entire territory from the river to the sea
Contra: You will not be the Jewish state anymore. To integrate the conquered, you would need to rethink and reinvent your own identity
Two state solution. Allow the Palestinian state to form & actively assist in its formation.

Pro: You can remain a Jewish state with the Jewish majority
Contra: You will not be able to claim the entire territory from the river to the sea. You will have to return to 1967 borders
Read 6 tweets
Jan 29
Not quite. The key thing understand about the UK is that it is a low capability & high capacity country. It produces very cool and often unique stuff. It may be even monopolist in some very important high end sectors. It is just that these sectors tend to be quantitatively smallImage
Consider the following. The UK is an extremely important producer of the higher end measurement systems, including for the Russian military industry. It would not be too much of an exaggeration to say that the UK is a monopolist producer

But it is a monopolist in a small nicheImage
The market of higher end measurement systems for the military/dual use industry (UK 💪) is small

The market of lower end, "dumb" powerful lasers for civilian manufacturing, shipbuilding, construction, etc (China 💪) is huge

Some market niches are just way larger than others
Read 4 tweets

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