Thread by @kamilkazani

Yes, of course

Tourism continues = Nobody in the West really cares about what's happening and all the "outrage" about the war is just BS rhetorics

Tourism stopped = They do care after all

Visa policy of the EU has huge political significance for internal Russian politics

https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1557326384879517697

Tourism issue is not just tourism issue. Russian public opinion interprets it as the marker of the *real* attitude of Europe. When Macron/Scholz express a deep concern, Russian public either laughs over it or interprets it as the de facto endorsement. Empty words, no action

Visa ban may be a small action, but it is an action. Unlike words visa ban has nonzero value. This can and will be interpreted as Europe being *actually* upset about what's happening in Ukraine and probably even somewhat angry. It's a sign of actual, unironic disapproval

When you read complaints about the visa ban, keep in mind that when Russia attacked Georgia in 2008 the future leader of opposition Navalny called for deportation of all Georgians (whom he called "rodents") from Russia.

It's still in his livejournal btw
navalny.livejournal.com/274456.html

To sum up. Any signs of business as usual, including tourism, are viewed as acceptance/endorsement of Russia's policies. Russian people are no idiots. They get that if Russia's behaviour is unpunished, it means Russia got away with it. Putin is genius, his critics are imbeciles

European policies, including the visa policies have a great impact on the Russian discourse and internal politics. The better life in Russia will be, the more business as usual continues, the more Russian population will believe that everything's fine. Just chill down

Russia is extremely pragmatic and individualistic culture. Extremely. Considerations of abstract morals or humanism have *negative* value here, they're nearly universally mocked. Considerations of personal comfort and pleasure have enormous value, far more than in the West

Personal comfort is much more of a political factor in Russia than in Western Europe. If we don't feel significant discomfort, that means Putin is 100% right. It's personal comfort or discomfort that determines support of Kremlin or lack of it, not some BS moral considerations

To sum up, Russian public opinion is not influenced by pictures of the dead, of destroyed cities, of the cut off heads and hands. Nobody gives a fuck. They do give a fuck about personal comfort though. And the level of comfort directly correlates with the support of regime

If you want Kremlin to go on, minimise the personal discomofort of the Russian population. If you want Kremlin to reconsider, you need to act the other way around. Even small actions like stopping tourism have huge political significance as markers of *real* attitude of Europe

Saying all of this, I find it very important to keep a one way door to *somewhere* open for the Russian citizens who want to leave. I also think it's very important to work out a viable way of surrender with a green corridor to somewhere for the Russian soldiers in Ukraine

Effect will be non-linear. I don't think that the bulk of Russian forces will surrender. They won't or at least they won't for now. But even 1% of troops actually surrendering will have a huge damaging effect on the morals, destroying the mutual trust and arousing suspicion

Add to that reasonable monetary payments for sabotage guaranteed by rich countries/organisations and it may have a paralysing effect on the fighting force. All social systems operate on trust and that will be destroying it, especially when the first saboteurs get their payment

NB: these guarantees should be made by *rich* countries or institutions. Slavs don't believe in Slavic financial guarantees, but they do believe in the Western ones. German financial guarantee is way better than the Ukrainian one in this regard. The end