AukeHoekstra Profile picture
Aug 10, 2022 11 tweets 6 min read Read on X
FINALLY!
Our paper on 100%RE is out!

It traces the history and fast growth of the scientific field that models 100% renewable energy: no fossil or nuclear needed.

Hundreds of peer reviewed studies now claim 100%RE is possible worldwide against low cost!
helsinkitimes.fi/themes/themes/… Image
In the newspaper article I also explain why I personally think this is so important: it's a hopeful message to young people who are depressed about climate change and would like a world running on 100% renewable energy but are afraid it's impossible or expensive. Image
Here's the tweet from the lead author. I've also included the paper's abstract as a picture.
Image
Here's a high def timeline showing some of the groundbreaking research. As you can see it's a young field. I still remember discovering Czisch and getting enthusiastic. In 2011 @mzjacobson's paper inspired me (I replaced the hydro increase with batteries in my Excel). Image
But SO MUCH has happened since then!

Some people mistakenly think it's still just a few researchers but as you can see there are multiple research groups and most of the new research is by new entrants. Dozens of these papers are also in the new IPCC WG3 report by the way. Image
And for those who say: what do you do when the wind doesn't blow or the sun doesn't shine...

The fastest growing fields of study are grid capacity, energy storage, sector coupling, and P2X (electricity to molecules like H2) and back. So everybody in 100%RE is very aware of this. Image
That these papers design energy systems without fossil fuels and nuclear energy does not prove fossil and nuclear don't work! It's a research focus: feel free to include them in *your* models!

But it shows we can do without and that the resulting energy system is still low cost. Image
I personally find that good news because I think nuclear energy is often expensive, slow and impopular with lots of discussions about proliferation, accidents, and waste.

So I'm not so much against it as sceptical that it will be deployed at the speed we need. Image
And fossil fuel with carbon capture and storage is not a bad idea per se either. I'm just a bit bummed out by all the cheating, heel dragging, and not delivering good results.

This clip is humorous but not that far of the mark imho.
I'm more hopeful about solar and wind that keep defying expectations in terms of production growth and price decreases. Lead author @ChristianOnRE is especially bullish on solar. I'm glad the IPCC is also picking this up now.


hindawi.com/journals/compl… Image
Anyway: I'm happy this paper documents that energy systems without fossil fuel and nuclear are now scientific mainstream. And I'm very proud to be a co-author.
/end Image

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More from @AukeHoekstra

May 11
Well meaning but misguided EV activists like this make me very tired sometimes:

The German Tesla factory is attacked because it's not perfect.

No, nothing is!

But you should make a COMPARISON with combustion cars or other EV factories.
Very quickly:

1) "It makes no sense to charge EVs in coal heavy Germany".

This is nonsense: 4x less emissions over lifetime. See my pinned thread. And many cars of a factory are for export.

2) "They kill the forest!" It's low quality production forest compensated elsewhere.
The only things this accomplishes as far as I can see:

More emissions because less EVs.

Less jobs in Germany and more in China.

I also feel it's entitled ("not in my backyard") and childish (acting out against Musk?).

This is not how we save the planet.
Read 6 tweets
May 6
Someone just alerted me to this @guardian article from January about a *big 5 yearly UN report!* on material extraction.

The @guardian singles out cobalt and electric vehicles.
But look at this graph from the report!
WTF is going on here?

I must do a 🧵
theguardian.com/environment/20…
Image
I have a love-hate relationship with the @guardian.
😍
I recently contributed to an impeccably researched series.
😡
Last year they did a hit piece on EVs, again using the material use angle, that cited figures a 1000x too large!
As usual the @guardian refuses to link to the original report, but it can be found here:

The article uses the attached pick of a cobalt mine in Congo to set the scene🤔

And it complains EVs use 10x more critical raw materials than ICE cars 🤬 wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.…
Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 30
Solar PV is growing exponentially at the fastest rate of any energy source in history.

BUT we should stop comparing it to other energy technologies using WATT. (So the picture below from @renew_economy is doing it wrong!)

We should compare in WATT-HOUR!
reneweconomy.com.au/solar-is-now-b…
Image
Put differently: we should take the CAPACITY FACTOR into account.

For example: imagine we install 1 kilowatt-peak of solar (that's 2 or 3 solar panels).

How much kWh per hour will that produce on average?

If 1 kW produces 0.25 kWh/h on average,
the capacity factor is 25%.
And that means, we have to install 2 kW of solar to achieve the same as 1 kW of coal and up to 4 kW to achieve the same as nuclear.

In Europe, offshore wind can have a capacity factor of up to 50% and PV can be as low as 10%.
stout.com/en/insights/co…
Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 14
Five of the Fossil Fuel Industry's Biggest Disinformation Tactics

@guardian article by @WesterveltAmy and @kylepope

Very recognizable for me too, so allow me to summarize the five points and add some observations/examples.
theguardian.com/us-news/2024/a…
1 "FF provides Energy Security"

In reality FF cause(d)(s) many INsecurities.

From the climate crisis, to "Dutch disease", to the end of democracy in Iran, to the war in Ukraine. [My examples]

Renewables are not scarce and last forever.
That sounds more secure to me. Image
2 "You must choose the economy or the environment"

The article gives great examples of this claim.
I hear it daily.

But the reality is that speeding up the transition to renewable SAVES money. Yes, really.

Don't be fooled by their delaying tactics!
cell.com/joule/pdf/S254…
Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 13
The European Union just came out with an official report:
REAL-WORLD emissions versus the new WLTP cycle.

The results are
*UNBELIEVABLE!!*

PHEVs emit on average
THREE AND A HALF TIMES MORE
than the official test claims!
climate-energy.eea.europa.eu/topics/transpo…
Image
Remember my complaints about @Toyota's misinformation claiming PHEV's are better than full EV's because they need smaller batteries?

Well, @Toyota actually scores WORSE than average with a gap of OVER FOUR TIMES the official value.

(Although their cars are more frugal.) Image
Researchers know since 2012 or so that EU tests are bollox and only useful as an illustration of "regulatory capture".

In my texts explaining how to calculate CO2 emissions I refer to it as "Error 4" (of 6).


sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
researchgate.net/publication/37…
Image
Read 10 tweets
Apr 12
GEOTHERMAL
Just saw a fascinating webinar and you should too if geothermal interests you.


It explains how techniques from fracking are creating a game-changer in the last few years that can reduce the cost of energy systems without fossil fuels.

🧵
Image
The webinar by prof. Roland Horne from @Stanford is about Enhanced Geothermal Systems or EGS that he defines as using fracking to make the area between the infusion and extraction well permeable for water. Image
He focuses on @fervoenergy, a company founded by two @Stanford alumni (one from his program) that has for the first time in history used the horizontal boring technique from fracking in geothermal.
Image
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Read 12 tweets

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