AukeHoekstra Profile picture
Aug 10, 2022 11 tweets 6 min read Read on X
FINALLY!
Our paper on 100%RE is out!

It traces the history and fast growth of the scientific field that models 100% renewable energy: no fossil or nuclear needed.

Hundreds of peer reviewed studies now claim 100%RE is possible worldwide against low cost!
helsinkitimes.fi/themes/themes/… Image
In the newspaper article I also explain why I personally think this is so important: it's a hopeful message to young people who are depressed about climate change and would like a world running on 100% renewable energy but are afraid it's impossible or expensive. Image
Here's the tweet from the lead author. I've also included the paper's abstract as a picture.
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Here's a high def timeline showing some of the groundbreaking research. As you can see it's a young field. I still remember discovering Czisch and getting enthusiastic. In 2011 @mzjacobson's paper inspired me (I replaced the hydro increase with batteries in my Excel). Image
But SO MUCH has happened since then!

Some people mistakenly think it's still just a few researchers but as you can see there are multiple research groups and most of the new research is by new entrants. Dozens of these papers are also in the new IPCC WG3 report by the way. Image
And for those who say: what do you do when the wind doesn't blow or the sun doesn't shine...

The fastest growing fields of study are grid capacity, energy storage, sector coupling, and P2X (electricity to molecules like H2) and back. So everybody in 100%RE is very aware of this. Image
That these papers design energy systems without fossil fuels and nuclear energy does not prove fossil and nuclear don't work! It's a research focus: feel free to include them in *your* models!

But it shows we can do without and that the resulting energy system is still low cost. Image
I personally find that good news because I think nuclear energy is often expensive, slow and impopular with lots of discussions about proliferation, accidents, and waste.

So I'm not so much against it as sceptical that it will be deployed at the speed we need. Image
And fossil fuel with carbon capture and storage is not a bad idea per se either. I'm just a bit bummed out by all the cheating, heel dragging, and not delivering good results.

This clip is humorous but not that far of the mark imho.
I'm more hopeful about solar and wind that keep defying expectations in terms of production growth and price decreases. Lead author @ChristianOnRE is especially bullish on solar. I'm glad the IPCC is also picking this up now.


hindawi.com/journals/compl… Image
Anyway: I'm happy this paper documents that energy systems without fossil fuel and nuclear are now scientific mainstream. And I'm very proud to be a co-author.
/end Image

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More from @AukeHoekstra

Aug 13, 2024
Great to see more and more attention for flexible grid pricing.

We must say goodbye to the "copper plate" that offers free power everywhere and every time. It's hideously expensive and outdated.

What we need is smart flexibility.
🧵
The underlying reason is that the costs of different components of the energy system changed:

Some remained high (e.g. pylons, fossil & nuclear)

Some plummeted (e.g. solar, wind, batteries, EVs & inverters)

Some became possible at all (e.g. measuring & steering in real time)
So now we should make good use of these new, clean, abundant and affordable options, even if it means doing things a bit differently than before.

So what should we do different regarding grid congestion pricing?
Read 20 tweets
Jul 28, 2024
Some are angry about the "anti-Christian depiction of the last supper" at the Olympic Opening ceremony. (@elonmusk and @realDonaldTrump among others)

A Dutch art historian explains it's not the last supper but a Dutch painting of the Olympic gods.
And I explain what I loved.
🧵
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Original Dutch thread here. I just translated it.


@WSchoonenberg shows that the "tableau vivant" (living painting) is depicting "The Feast of the Gods" by Jan van Bijlert, from 1635.
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The heathen Gods have gathered on mount Olympus for a feast. Sun god Apollo is recognizable by his halo, Bacchus (Dionysus) by the grapes, Neptune (Poseidon) by his trident, Diana (Artemis) by the moon, Venus (Aphrodite) by Cupid.


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Read 24 tweets
Jul 9, 2024
With new batteries solar and wind are not only faster and cleaner, but also cheaper.

I'm estimating:
$0.08/kWh for PV+batteries
$0.07/kWh for wind+batteries

@skorusARK gives a good overview of current wisdom, but strongly declining battery prices change EVERYTHING
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I've recently written about how I was surprised I missed the enormous consequences of price reductions in batteries.

LFP cells are now $50/kWh and last 10 000 cycles.
That's $0.005 per kWh.

Say we double that to pack the cells and you are at $0.01/kWh.aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-ho…
If you add batteries to solar PV, not all energy has to flow through batteries. But let's keep it at $0.01 and add that to the price of solar. That makes PV (and wind) SUPER cheap!

Batteries must be discounted more quickly you say?
Read 10 tweets
Jun 20, 2024
Cheap stationary batteries will pave the way for wind and solar in cheap and resilient energy grids. Unfortunately the @IEA is mispredicting it (again).

Thread based on a free substack article I just wrote.
aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-li…
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Many of my followers know this picture: it visualizes how the IEA underestimates solar. Now I see basically the same problem in their new battery report.

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The IEAs new battery report gives a lot of great info on batteries but also two predictions taken from their authoritative world energy outlook:
1) STEPS which is basically business as usual
2) NZE (Net Zero Emissions) which is aspirational
iea.org/reports/batter…
Read 11 tweets
Jun 16, 2024
Batteries: how cheap can they get?

I used the Sunday afternoot to describe how I think that dirt cheap batteries will completely transform our electricity grid, paving the way for solar and wind and replacing grid reinforcements with grid buffers
aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-ho…
This is something I'm working on for different government and grid operator projects, but I never realized just how cheap sodium batteries could become and how much of a game changer that will be.

So I used my Sunday evening to write this and would love your feedback!
First I look at the learning curve and then we see it is extremely predictable: every doubling of production has reduced prices by around 25%.

It's even steeper and more predictable than solar panels, the poster child of this type of learning curve.
(More details on substack.) Image
Read 15 tweets
Jun 5, 2024
Aaaand we have another winner of the "EVs and renewables can never happen because of material scarcety" sweepstake. I thought @pwrhungry was more serious. Let me explain why this is misleading bollox.
First of all, notice how his argument is mainly that Vaclav Smil says this and HE is an authority.

Why bother to write a substack that basically parrots someone else?

Because you don't really understand it yourself and needed to write another substack maybe?
I'm a bit tired of this because Bryce abuses Smil the same way most people who are against renewables abuse him. They emphasize this is a serious and revered figure that knows numbers. They make it about the messenger, not the argument.
Read 14 tweets

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