Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Aug 11 9 tweets 2 min read
Most foreigners don't read Russian and are thus unfamiliar with the Russian internal discourse. Let me give you a single but illustrative example

Russian discourse is largely centred around how much our consumption standards have fallen or will fall. And nothing else matters
Russia is not an idealistic irrational society as many picture it. It's ultra-pragmatic culture. If you think it can be moved by the killed Ukrainian civilians (or Russian soldiers KIA), you are insane. Decrease in consumption standards, that's the *only* thing that really hurts
Putin's decision to start the war will be judged based on how much our consumption standards will fall. If they don't fall too dramatically, it means Putin made good or okayish decision. Everything's alright, just chill down. If they *do* fall though, oh, it's very painful
Russian people are not dumb. They absolutely do see a causal link between the Putin's decision of February 24 and the life standards dynamics in Russia. In fact, it is the potential decrease in the consumption standards that has been the main concern about the invasion of Ukraine
If consumption standards do not fall dramatically, it means that the main concern about the Special Operation was groundless. It doesn't have serious downsides

It consumption standards do fall dramatically, it means the main concern about the Special Operation made sense
When I say "decrease in consumption standards", I don't mean hunger. I mean the loss of the prior abundance of consumer goods. Paradoxically it may sound for a Westerner, the limited choice of yogurts on shelves is far worse blow on Putin's legitimacy than the mass starvation
Two reasons.

1. Limited choice of yogurts hurts Moscow and the attitude of Moscow does matter. Mass starvation would hurt the province no one cares about

2. You starve cuz you don't have money? That's your fault. There are few yogurts in supermarket? That's Putin's fault
Westerners may misunderstand the Putin's social contract. It's not about "increasing the life quality of the general population" (do you think you are in Sweden or what?). It's primarily about abundance of consumer opportunities. That's the major basis of Putin's legitimacy
If some remote province potentially starves or freezes, no one will care. However, if Moscow feels the lack of broadly understood consumption opportunities that's a much greater blow on Putin and delegitimization of his policies than a Westerner could ever imagine. The end

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More from @kamilkazani

Aug 12
That's the East-West gatekeeping differential

At St Andrews I discussed my master's thesis with a very good professor:

- Are you planning to make a PhD out of it?
- Let's be honest, would I ever be able to make here a career as a researcher of *British* history?
- No
Another very smart and altruistic professor encouraged me to concentrate on China instead. Indeed, we both knew that if I potentially focused on China, I would probably do well, even in the UK and even coming from Eastern Europe. There's *way* less gatekeeping in this area
I don't really know how it is in Japan/Korea studies but in my experience China Studies have very, very little gatekeeping. You literally can be a noname from the backwoods and do great. And by doing great I don't mean glorifying the Party, I mean actual academic research
Read 8 tweets
Aug 11
You are implying that's some kind of exception, while in fact that's typical. You represent yourself as *whatever you think the West wants to see* when there is an incentive for that. And you act the opposite when the system of incentives change. I mean that's kinda obvious
I think every non-Westerner with half a brain knows how to please the Western public opinion. Just identify what they want and try to fit into that role. How to identify what they want? Well, they won't shut up about it. May be you would like them to shut up, but they won't
That's not some high strategy. That's basic functionality. How do you get into a PhD program? Identify what they want to read in application and write it. A scholarship? The same to get *any kind of resources*. Once you get them, make an U-turn and do what you really want
Read 9 tweets
Aug 11
No. Putin's regime is not Stalin's and the extent of *bloody* purges is vastly exaggerated. Also they don't really care for your views as long as you don't take active action. Some my social media mutuals were posting critical stuff, while working for the state. Nobody cares
Back in 2015 I worked in a quango. My boss would casually come to the room where I and three other employees were sitting and make speeches like:

"How I turned towards the oppositional views"

In reality this quango was a part of the state's economic apparatus. But nobody cared
I also knew an official who would casually post super critical stuff in social media. He also made critical speeches privately. Later, he would make a yuuuge rise, like to the very top of the political hierarchy. But he didn't even bother to delete his old posts. Nobody cares
Read 15 tweets
Aug 10
Yes, of course

Tourism continues = Nobody in the West really cares about what's happening and all the "outrage" about the war is just BS rhetorics

Tourism stopped = They do care after all

Visa policy of the EU has huge political significance for internal Russian politics
Tourism issue is not just tourism issue. Russian public opinion interprets it as the marker of the *real* attitude of Europe. When Macron/Scholz express a deep concern, Russian public either laughs over it or interprets it as the de facto endorsement. Empty words, no action
Visa ban may be a small action, but it is an action. Unlike words visa ban has nonzero value. This can and will be interpreted as Europe being *actually* upset about what's happening in Ukraine and probably even somewhat angry. It's a sign of actual, unironic disapproval
Read 14 tweets
Aug 10
Great statistics, awful analysis. The fact that the majority of Russians will support either escalation or peace shows that they *do* have a clue. And the clue is - submission to the supreme power in whatever. The culture of obedience in Russia is unimaginable to a Westerner
That's why discussion about Putin's "rate of approval" figures is so dumb. It just doesn't matter. Yeltsin ruled perfectly with a rate of approval of like 6%. He waged wars, and won elections and commanded a perfect obedience being almost universally hated. Culture of obedience
It's analysts making arguments like "it's all Putin's fault, Russian people would accept whatever decision of the Supreme Ruler" who are clueless. It's not Bad Putin who is the problem here. It is the culture of perfect obedience to the ruler and his *whatever* decisions
Read 8 tweets
Aug 9
Fair enough. While Crimea had separatist attitiudes, Donbass did not. In fact, it was a major power center of pre-2014 Ukraine. While Russia is picturing Ukrainian political system as dominance of Galicia, picturing it as Donetsk & Dnipro dominance may be more factually accurate
I would argue that the actual political influence of the West Ukrainian interest groups on Kyiv politics had been exaggerated. While the influence of interest groups from the large industrial cities of the South East: especially Dnipro and Donetsk had been vastly underrated
In 2014 Donetsk interest group lost massively. They chose to welcome the Russian involvement. A dog was losing in a fight and called for the wolves to help. As a result, the Donetsk group not only lost everything but the Donbass itself turned into the country of depopulated ruins
Read 12 tweets

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