Thread by @kamilkazani

Most foreigners don't read Russian and are thus unfamiliar with the Russian internal discourse. Let me give you a single but illustrative example

Russian discourse is largely centred around how much our consumption standards have fallen or will fall. And nothing else matters

Russia is not an idealistic irrational society as many picture it. It's ultra-pragmatic culture. If you think it can be moved by the killed Ukrainian civilians (or Russian soldiers KIA), you are insane. Decrease in consumption standards, that's the *only* thing that really hurts

Putin's decision to start the war will be judged based on how much our consumption standards will fall. If they don't fall too dramatically, it means Putin made good or okayish decision. Everything's alright, just chill down. If they *do* fall though, oh, it's very painful

Russian people are not dumb. They absolutely do see a causal link between the Putin's decision of February 24 and the life standards dynamics in Russia. In fact, it is the potential decrease in the consumption standards that has been the main concern about the invasion of Ukraine

If consumption standards do not fall dramatically, it means that the main concern about the Special Operation was groundless. It doesn't have serious downsides

It consumption standards do fall dramatically, it means the main concern about the Special Operation made sense

When I say "decrease in consumption standards", I don't mean hunger. I mean the loss of the prior abundance of consumer goods. Paradoxically it may sound for a Westerner, the limited choice of yogurts on shelves is far worse blow on Putin's legitimacy than the mass starvation

Two reasons.

1. Limited choice of yogurts hurts Moscow and the attitude of Moscow does matter. Mass starvation would hurt the province no one cares about

2. You starve cuz you don't have money? That's your fault. There are few yogurts in supermarket? That's Putin's fault

Westerners may misunderstand the Putin's social contract. It's not about "increasing the life quality of the general population" (do you think you are in Sweden or what?). It's primarily about abundance of consumer opportunities. That's the major basis of Putin's legitimacy

If some remote province potentially starves or freezes, no one will care. However, if Moscow feels the lack of broadly understood consumption opportunities that's a much greater blow on Putin and delegitimization of his policies than a Westerner could ever imagine. The end