5,000 light years away from us, in the constellation Cygnus, exists the "Crescent Nebula" (I call it the "Brain Nebula"). There is an "shock wave" of blue moving outward and a shockwave moving inward at about 2,000 km/sec.
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Pulling back we can see tremendous nebulosity of the Sadr region.
The central star of the Crescent Nebula will eventually explode in a supernova explosion.
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Zoomed out even further (as part of my 4 panel mosaic) we can see the bright star Sadr.
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There are so many interesting objects and nebulosities throughout this region! Thousands of named objects.
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And this is where the location of the photo is, with the center of the Cygnus Constellation being the bright star Sadr in my picture.
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Details:
Taken from my balcony in Vancouver (Bortle 8-9). Narrowband 3nm HSO + RGB filters used.
Takahashi FSQ-85EDX telescope + @QHYCCD 268M camera + @SkyWatcherUSA EQ6-R Pro mount.
Processed over a month using 106 total hours of data comprising of a 2x2 mosaic.
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❌Myth:
responses to COVID "caused" 🔼youth suicides
✅Reality:
We now have 4 years of pandemic data showing that school-aged youth did NOT have an increase in suicides; in fact, rates decreased 18.3% from recent trends AND averages.
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This is true for girls in the US (pretty much right on the 3-year average (-0.8%), and 16.3% less than expected from the 10-year trend).
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This is true for boys in the US (10% less than the 3-year average and 18.9% less than expected from the ten-year trend)
Talking to kids when they're struggling🧵
For parents (or anyone who cares for kids!)
It can be really scary to notice something in your kid & be worried suicidality/self-harm.
How do you approach kids?
I've had this conversation >10000 times so I have some tips!
Be CALM
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CALM is a memory-trick to remember the key concepts of communicating to a struggling kid but also to remind you to be in control of your own emotions. If you are prepared, you will defeat your initial instinct, which will be to FREAK THE BLEEP OUT!
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First, COOPERATE!
You & your kid are a team, and you have a common goal: their present & future wellbeing. Don't set yourself up as the security guard, jailor, punisher, or antagonist. Don't push. Don't pull. Be alongside them, tell them you're willing to walk with them.
A recent study looking at >2M Americans presenting to ERs with MH concern shows the difficulty of "predicting suicide" - we can't predict suicide to help guide important clinical decisions.
The problem: Sensitivity vs PPV
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They used machine learning EMR-coded variables (outpatient visits, medications, previous appointments, age, etc etc) - you can see the entire dictionary used to "predict" here (word doc):
They had 2,069,170 ER visits and 899 suicides within 90 days.
After running the model and letting machine learning do its thing, the best fit had the following predictive properties at the 95% percentile cutoff of risk:
Debunking Antivaxxer Tropes:
"Antivaxxer is a slur" 🧵
Many many many accuse me of using a "slur" when I say "antivaxxer". It is a twitter shorthand for sure, but it is not a "slur", and I use it without regret or remorse.
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I certainly believe that if one is an "anti-vaxxer", they are not using science, reason, or reality to understand vaccines.
& I note a distrubing trend in antivax and some concerning other beliefs.
That being said, when I say antivax, I only mean "antivaccine belief holder"
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Check out my "antivax misinfo" threads. Someday take a look at the "hidden replies" & note that the antivax profiles are quite.. well.. recognizable.
Note: Do not assume every "Antivaxxer" is, I just notice the trend. As do many of my colleagues here space fighting misinfo.
Debunking Antivaxxer Myths
"🇪🇺 Vaxxed Countries have higher mortality"
No, they don't.
This is COMPLEX:
a) countries had different PRE-VACCINE infection (offers more dangerous protection than vax but indeed protection). Obv, vaccination NOT correlated with pre-vax death.
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b) The FIRST VACCINATION SERIES against OG COVID was phenomenally effective at preventing infection, transmission, illness, hospitalization, and death (VE >80-90% in all).
This is clearly evident by one of the most striking correlations you'll see!
COVID deaths vs Vax:
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And because COVID was the primary driver of excess mortality in 2021, excess ALL CAUSE mortality was almost identical to COVID MORTALITY.
He presents data to scare people into believing that vaccines have caused harm, & he continuously is on the bandwagon that C19 vaccines cause cancer. This is contrary to the damage.
Here, he's using a report using 1998-2019 data.
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In fact, there was such a DROP in incidence (assumed to be due to lack of access to health care) in 2020, that they had to amputate the model at 1998-2019 so that it wouldn't project a decrease! (a reasonable thing to do!)
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In their report, they clearly show that their trending is based off of models that ONLY end at 2019. ZERO PERCENT of this report is suggesting, implying, or reporting that vaccines have led to an increase in cancers.