Liron Shapira Profile picture
Aug 11 19 tweets 8 min read
Is “tokengated commerce” a Web3 use case?

The pitch sounds great: Enabling merchants to block their potential customers from buying anything unless they own the right NFT.

But before we get too excited, let’s check if it's a logically-valid use case or a #HollowAbstraction.
This is a big moment for Web3 devotees.

Tokengated commerce brings the theoretical possibility of NFTs into physical reality, promising to upend the way we engage in commercial transactions.

Shopify’s @Alex_Danco is confident this is something that merchants need.
According to Alex, a great merchant doesn't just let you buy something and pay and leave.

They go on a journey with you and overcome a challenge with you.
Here’s Alex’s 7,000-word writeup for @PackyM’s Not Boring newsletter. It’s full of exciting abstractions:

“Crypto is fundamentally a different behavior”

“Forget about what you can do… it's about who you can be”

“It’s good to be a non-fungible buyer”

notboring.co/p/tokengated-c…
Alex’s vision of our exciting tokengated-commerce future is pretty compelling:

You’re at a party that requires a membership card to attend.

You feel unmistakable joy that a machine recognizes you by your membership card.

Because your membership card is on the blockchain.
Packy depicts tokengated commerce as a MetaMask-headed Trojan horse preparing to invade the online commerce space with social-context soldiers.

I wonder, is this smart-looking visual standing for actual use cases, or is it covering for yet another Web3 #HollowAbstraction?
Let’s turn away from Alex’s soaring abstract rhetoric, and instead examine his specific use case.

Namely: Increasing a band’s t-shirt sales revenue by preventing anyone from buying unless they’re fans of that band and/or another band.

I clipped this from
Shopify launched tokengating features on Jun 22.

We know the animated video looks "lit", but what do we know about the traction with merchants and end users?

How many bands are using it? How much additional t-shirt sales revenue are they making?

There are a total of six merchants in the Gated Merch section of Shopify’s mobile app.

All of these merchants are NFT projects.

No bands selling t-shirts.

No empirical validation that tokengated commerce can make non-crypto merchants care about crypto.
.@InvsbleFriends is the only merchant featured by Shopify with currently available tokengated products.

Their NFT-holders get 20% off their t-shirts.

They're using blockchain tech to do the equivalent of sending a discount link to their customer mailing list.
I also noticed the Gated Merch flow in the Shop app is buggy.

Maybe the Shopify Crypto team isn't prioritizing maintenance work on an experimental feature that doesn’t seem to be getting much usage.
Alright, we made an empirical observation that Shopify’s tokengated commerce is having a lukewarm start. Not much interest from bands, or any non-crypto merchants.

IMO, this outcome was inevitable as a matter of pure logic.

Folks just didn't think critically about use cases.
Alex’s use case was supposed to be allowing his band, The Fundamentals, to offer their merch to a different band’s fans.

How is that use case accomplished today, without blockchain?

The answer is: it's rarely attempted. Bands don’t see much value in this type of "collab".
If we insist for the use-case example to be *realistic*, that's when cracks appear in the abstract pitch.

So let’s keep adding realistic details.

Let’s say The Fundamentals is doing a collab on tokengated commerce with The Mighty Mighty Bosstones, a more popular ska band.
Let’s say a Bosstones fan named Marty buys a $100 NFT that lets him attend a show, and another $100 NFT to drag his wife along.

Afterwards, Marty lists his wife’s NFT on OpenSea for $5, since she has no interest in holding it.

Now Alex’s example is showing its cracks…
Say Biff, who isn’t a fan of either band, nevertheless wants to buy a Fundamentals t-shirt. Tokengating ought to block him, right?

But Biff can buy a $5 Bosstones NFT and then buy Fundamentals merch.

If Bosstones NFTs are common, Biff could pay just $0.01 to access gated merch.
The only merchants that remotely make sense are crypto clubs like BAYC which limit group membership via rare NFTs. Demand for group membership theoretically maintains a high NFT floor price.

This explains why the only merchants using Shopify Gated Merch are NFT communities.
Also, we don’t need a blockchain to tell The Fundamentals who Bosstones fans are. Existing Web2 technology can easily implement that kind of data integration.

An OAuth API integration could securely pull membership info. So could a simple CSV dump with encrypted member emails.
Alas, people will never stop thinking they've discovered a Web3 use case. Their abstractions feel rich with beautiful potential, until they’re tried and inevitably fail.

Only those who focus on specific use cases are able to recognize when a pitch is a #HollowAbstraction mirage.

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More from @liron

Aug 3
.@a16z, @Accel and @paradigm looked directly at a blatant Ponzi scheme, Axie Infinity.

They called it “play-to-earn” and invested $311M into its parent company.

Then it collapsed.

How Web3 VCs stumbled into funding a Ponzi. 🧵
First, let’s be clear that Axie really is a Ponzi scheme. To quote @matt_levine's newsletter from last month: “Axie Infinity is a Ponzi scheme”.
This viral Substack essay by @packyM, published July 19, 2021, is representative of last year’s peak VC hype around Axie: notboring.co/p/infinity-rev…
Read 21 tweets
Aug 2
.@Helium supporters have been accusing me of FUD.

To encourage one another to stay positive, they cite exciting corporate partnerships such as... @Goodyear Tire & Rubber.

Maybe I can help them perform a sanity check before they pin their hopes on this promising "customer".
Believers of the Goodyear/Helium partnership envision a future where your vehicle connects to the internet... through its tires.

Inspiring.

I'd hate to burst their bubble that a Goodyear Ventures investment with the goal to "learn about new mobility" isn't proof of real demand.
To learn more, I watched this presentation by @AbhijitCVC of Goodyear Ventures:

Does Goodyear have a plan for giving tire sensor devices their own internet connection?

Not really, says Abhijit: "Assume we have the right sensors, and we don't yet..."
Read 6 tweets
Aug 1
Checking in on @a16z's $311M-led investment:

After recklessly deploying 900k LoRaWAN hotspots that no one wants, @helium is now focusing on... increasing the supply of nodes. 5G this time.

Once again, tech analysts warning lack of demand. Glad @benedictevans sees the problem! ImageImageImage
We can thank Web3 tokenomics for this wasteful and futile exercise.

But the original HNT token isn't enough. They're making up 2 new tokens!

Everyone's desperate to keep the music playing until "crypto winter" ends. HNT down 60% since Feb '22 round. Just get to the next pump... ImageImage
Helium team boasts about the rapid growth of 5G hotspots, 1900 so far.

I've heard from insiders they're serving $0 in end customer usage. Maybe their next focus should be on the demand side?

Unclear how the new $IOT and $MOBILE tokens will change all of that.

Here we go again. Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 26
.@Helium, often cited as one of the best examples of a Web3 use case, has received $365M of investment led by @a16z.

Regular folks have also been convinced to spend $250M buying hotspot nodes, in hopes of earning passive income.

The result? Helium's total revenue is $6.5k/month
Members of the r/helium subreddit have been increasingly vocal about seeing poor Helium returns.

On average, they spent $400-800 to buy a hotspot. They were expecting $100/month, enough to recoup their costs and enjoy passive income.

Then their earnings dropped to only $20/mo.
These folks maintain false hope of positive ROI. They still don’t realize their share of data-usage revenue isn’t actually $20/month; it’s $0.01/month.

The other $19.99 is a temporary subsidy from investment in growing the network, and speculation on the value of the $HNT token.
Read 11 tweets
Jul 24
Alright for the next 24 hours, as an Ideological Turing Test, I'll be taking the pro-Web3 position!

Throw me your best skeptical arguments and I'll do my best to respond from a place of enlightened optimism about crypto/blockchain/Web3.

#OppositeDay
I'm doing this because I believe it's important to be able to pass the Ideological Turing Test.

I get the sense that pro-crypto people can't pass it on my views, but that I can pass it on theirs. So let's try it.

lesswrong.com/tag/ideologica…
So far, half of my content in this thread is real clarifications to people's misunderstandings of blockchain 😂
Read 6 tweets
Jun 15
Today @pmarca was asked by @tylercowen to explain a Web3 use case.

I clipped this gem from 28:08 of Conversations With Tyler.

Highly recommended...
Previously on Web3 Use Case Punk'd:
Read 8 tweets

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