We know more about Keir Starmer's energy plan. I was critical yesterday when the first sketchy details appeared. Am I any more enamoured today when we know a bit more? A thread...
First, the good news. Highest on the list is that this is a plan, and that in itself is welcome. When the Tory leadership candidates have virtually ignored the issue Labour doing anything is good news.
Second, the plan could work. I am not convinced by it all for reasons I will note below, but it has, given the objectives Starmer has set for it, a level of plausibility.
Third, this means that debate on this issue has to move up the political agenda. I welcome that.
However, the plan remains deeply flawed for many reasons. First of all, it's only for six months. I admit to being baffled as to Starmer's thinking on this. Is the energy price going to fall so dramatically in those six months that this problem will go away by then?
I do expect inflation to fall next year, and energy prices do undoubtedly tend to go down after peaks like the one we are in. But it is an optimist who thinks that this crisis will be over by next Easter.
Second, the fundamental flaw in he plan is that it only addresses the issue for households. There is no mention of how schools, hospitals and care homes will pay their bills, or how many businesses will survive this winter.
If many of them collapse this winter we will still have a crisis of epic proportions even if household debts might be constrained. This is far from a comprehensive plan as a result, and that scares me. The scale of this crisis is still not being appreciated.
Third, a debt obsession is running through this plan. It is designed as much about not costing the supposed taxpayer money as it is about meeting need.
This is deeply depressing. Labour remains committed to the idea that everything it does is constrained as if the macroeconomy must be run like a household, when that is exactly not the way to run it. I strongly suspect that this has stopped any further plan to help the economy.
Fourth, I rather suspect that within this constraint the idea that £8bn might be raised from a windfall tax on energy companies is optimistic, but I need to see the data.
A windfall tax on banks would be easier, or at least complementary, reclaiming their gains from increasing Bank of England interest rates, and £8bn from a windfall tax on that source would be very easy to secure on top of any gains from energy companies.
Fifth, the plan still delivers a significant gain to the best off households. I remain unsure that this is well targeted as a result. It certainly does not meet the IMF's suggested criteria for support on this basis.
Sixth, I am presuming much of the planned Tory support for lower income households remain under this plan, although some will actually be quite generous now. I have not seen this confirmed though.
Seventh, the plans for prepaid meters look to be good, but I have not seen clarity on standing charges, which I think have to go.
To summarise, given that Labour cannot actually deliver any plan this one has the merit of getting the issue firmly onto the agenda. The Tory leadership candidates will not be able to avoid it.
But there is still poverty in Labour's thinking that suggests it is not addressing all the issues, like the cost to public services and businesses, which may be just as serious as the household cost. Their debt obsession may be preventing that and this worries me, a lot.
And, the plan is for too short a period and is not well focussed. It's welcome, but we need better. I hope to publish my own plan later today. It's a lot more comprehensive than this, but it does tackle all the issues.
It will also cost a great deal more but we are now facing an economic crisis as large as those in 2008 and 2020, in which case spending is required and debt obsession is not. I have not made my last comment on this issue, in other words.

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More from @RichardJMurphy

Aug 15
I have suggested that no plan to address the current economic crisis that I have seen is good enough. In that case I think it necessary that I offer my own alternative plan to address this crisis. This is it. It’s radical. It could work. I think it’s essential. A thread….
First of all, let me make clear that my whole plan is 30 or so pages of A4, and even I don’t think that can be turned into a Twitter thread. But you can read the whole thing here. It’s the most comprehensive plan to tackle this crisis that I know of. taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/wp-conten…
The crisis that we are facing is being caused by inflation. This started as a flurry after Covid reopening caused supply chain disruptions, but it is Putin’s war and resulting gas price hikes by profiteering energy companies that are making this such a problem.
Read 29 tweets
Aug 14
At long last Keir Starmer has said what he wants done about the cost of living crisis. He has demanded that household energy costs be capped at £1,971, as they are now and that planned increases to £4,200 be cancelled. But is this the right idea? A thread…..
Starmer’s plan is simple. It leaves us where we are now. The cost of keeping energy bills where they are now would be £53 billion a year, in my estimation, assuming all households enjoyed the benefit.
However, the world is not simple, and there are serious consequences of trying to fix energy costs at current levels.
Read 16 tweets
Aug 12
The Tory leadership campaign grinds on. The offers from both candidates continue to make no sense. The coming crisis of government in the face of a looming economic meltdown is obvious, except to Truss and Sunak. What to think? A thread….
One thing that is very clear from the Tory leadership campaign is that Sunak and Truss both hold most people in this country in contempt.
The tax cuts both offer are aimed at providing big increases in the post-tax incomes of the wealthiest in our societies, and for large companies in the case of Liz Truss.
Read 54 tweets
Aug 10
The Tory leadership election is offering the party faithful an image of a land about to flow with milk and honey, so good are the prospects arising from the so far unspecified benefits of Brexit. The reality is about as far from that is it can be. A thread...
In reality, this morning we have news of drought, hose pipe bans and even outright water shortages.

There is also a warning of power cuts to come this winter as electricity supply will not meet demand.
Avanti has just axed two-thirds of its train services on the West Coast mainline.

Now there is news that the funding deal for London Transport has run out and it may be cutting services, severely, as a result.
Read 19 tweets
Aug 6
There is one very simple way to create growth in the UK. It is to redistribute money from those who do not need or spend significant parts of what they earn (the wealthy) and give it to those who will spend it more quickly, or even immediately (the poorest).
There is quite literally nothing that can get the economy in this country going faster than redistributing our national income. The odd thing is that the Tories never mention this. They, instead, give tax cuts to the rich and nothing to the least well off, to make things worse.
Bizarrely, the Labour Party, which says ‘growth, growth, growth’ is its objective doesn’t seem to be talking about redistribution as the best way to achieve it either. Odd, isn’t it? What could be holding them back?
Read 4 tweets
Aug 5
Some people might have noticed that I disagreed the Bank of England’s decision to increase interest rates yesterday. It was completely irresponsible, but what happens now? Let me offer some opinion on that and a comprehensive plan to get us through this mess. A thread…..
I have already discussed what the Bank of England (BoE) got wrong, here, in case you’re not familiar with it. I predict a disaster in that thread, but how big a disaster?

The BoE is already saying inflation is going to reach 13%. They say unemployment will double, which means there are going to be a lot of corporate bankruptcies. And they say there will be a recession. They also say they’re very sorry for the pain this will impose.
Read 60 tweets

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