Thread by @AndrewDessler

if you're wondering why climate impacts seem to be getting much worse suddenly, let me introduce you to the concept of non-linearity. A short 🧵:

In a linear system, things change in straight line. If climate impacts are linear, then every 0.1°C of warming would give you the same amount of damage.

In a non-linear world, on the other hand, every 0.1°C of warming produces larger damage than the previous 0.1°C.

This should make some sense. In a rain event, the first inch of rain does no damage, but the 20th inch of rain is going to be a catastrophe.

https://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/status/1126894567226212352?s=20&t=aIt1Ne8kkVIgWRUepWN5Kw

The reason for the non-linearity of climate impacts is that individuals and communities are impacted by climate when it passes thresholds.

https://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/status/1418596075263479811?s=20&t=aIt1Ne8kkVIgWRUepWN5Kw

Thresholds are designed into the system when assumptions of the climate are built into a system. For example, when you build a bridge, you build in the capability for the bridge to expand/contract in response to a range of temperatures that you expect the bridge to experience.

If the climate varies outside that range, the bridge may have to be closed.
mypanhandle.com/news/local-new…

With 1.1°C of global-average warming, we are departing the climatic conditions that much of the infrastructure designed in the 20th century was designed for.

Every 0.1°C of warming is going to push us past an exponentially increasing number of thresholds in the climate system.

We can therefore expect to see worse and worse impacts coming more and more frequently as the climate continues to warm.