Thread by @TimothyDSnyder

Often imperialist expansion turns quickly against those who enjoy it. A good example of this is on display in the Russo-Ukrainian war in the form of Russia's plan to fake "referenda" on joining Russia in the occupied Ukrainian territories. 1/16

Until now there has been no forced mobilization of Russian citizens to fight in Ukraine. Instead, Russian citizens (unless they are Asian or poor) generally watch the war on television. 2/16

The spectacle they will soon be presented on television is that of "referenda" on the territories of Ukraine that Russia occupies. Although Russians may not realize this, the "referenda" are really about them. 3/16

These "referenda" are a traditional element of Moscow's illegal annexations. The USSR did the same in 1939 after it invaded Poland. Following the faked results was a large-scale forced mobilization of Polish citizens to the Red Army as "Soviet citizens." (hold that thought) 4/16

No one in Ukraine will take the fake "referenda" seriously, except as one more element of Russia's illegal war of aggression. The "referenda" will violate international law so obviously that no one abroad will take them seriously either. 5/16

The "referenda" will only have meaning in one place: Russia itself. And what will that meaning be? That the televised spectacle of war is coming to an end, and that more Russians will soon see war at first-hand. 6/16

Putin cannot announce a general mobilization, since that would be an admission that he is losing the war. It would too overtly break the social contract according to which the poor, the Asians, and forcibly mobilized Ukrainians do the dying. 7/16

Thus the Russian state relies on quiet initiatives that do not look like mobilization, but which amount to mobilization. The "referenda" are the latest move in that direction, but Russians are expected not to see this in time. 8/16

Russian domestic propaganda will do the following to Russians: it will insist that the "referenda" are real, and the evil West is mouthing its usual hypocrisy. The us-them story will hide the reality of Russians oppressing Russians. 9/16

As Russians cheer on the "referenda," what they are actually supporting is the forced mobilization of Russian citizens for war in Ukraine. How so? 10/16

At the moment, the Russian army forcibly mobilizes Ukrainian citizens in the occupied territories. After the faked "referenda" in these regions, the Russian government will declare that these people are its citizens – and continue to forcibly mobilize them. 11/16

With no formal announcement, the Russian army will be forcibly mobilizing Russian citizens. The social contract will be broken, without anyone saying so. 12/16

Having established the principle of forced mobilization on its "new territories," Russian authorities will presumably move on to adjacent Russian territories. 13/16

This could be soon, as most of the men of fighting age in the territories affected by the "referenda" have either fled to free Ukraine or have already been forcibly mobilized and killed. 14/16

Russian military bloggers themselves refer to forced mobilization on the occupied territories as "mogilizatsiia," могилизация, a play on words meaning "forced mobilization to the grave." 15/16

That is the meaning of the "referenda" for Russians: могилизация, forced mobilization to the grave. 16/16