Thread by @EJ_Burrows

NEW: Western intelligence official just told reporters attack on Saky airfield in Crimea by Ukraine 'put more than half of Russia's Black Sea Fleet naval aviation combat jets out of use. The Russian system is busy seeking to allocate blame for the debacle.'

NEW: Western intelligence official: 'The real story is about (Russia's) Black Sea Fleet. They've lost their flagship Moskva, they lost Snake Island, they lost half of their naval aviation package and their military headquarters was struck.'

NEW: Western intelligence official: 'What we are seeing now is (Russia's) Black Sea Fleet taking a very defensive position, trying to avoid getting in the line of fire. This is a proud fleet with a long history. The credibility of that entity has been diminished.'

NEW: Western intelligence official on recent explosions in Russia/Crimea/Russian-occupied territory 'I think we can assume attacks by Ukrainians behind enemy lines.' Targets such as Belgorod (in Russia) 'are legitimate targets which don’t risk Russian territorial integrity.'

NEW: Western intelligence official: 'I don’t see [explosions/attacks behind Russian lines] diminishing. I think we’ve seen an uptick of those events.' Western intelligence official puts attacks by Ukraine down to a 'combination of incredibly brave people and new capabilities.'

NEW: Western intelligence official suggests Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is being used by Russia & Ukraine in a battle for the 'information environment.' Says infrastructure there is built to 'cope with a civilian airliner flying into it...direct fire is not our concern.'

NEW: Western intelligence official says 'The issue we are concerned about [at Zaporizhzhia power plant] is the water cooling of nuclear reactors. If the grid power supply is disrupted, it pushes them to back up generators. If they fail...we are in a more serious situation.'

NEW: Western intelligence official says right now 'there are diesel generators & a workforce [at Zaporizhzhia] to mitigate risk.' Says ZPP provides 20% of Ukraine's electricity. 'This is hybrid warfare...If this were connected to Crimean grid it would be a sign of Russification'

NEW: Western intelligence official says Russians are starting to 'run out of ammunition.' 'We have a large range of evidence to suggest munitions are being depleted...inc munitions coming out of deep storage.'

NEW: Western official says falling Russian munition stocks 'ultimately will start to impair Russia's ability to launch offensives.' Says Russia has merged BTGS & is having a 'terrible time trying to reconstitute its forces...this is not a good way to improve combat effectiveness'

NEW: Western intelligence official says war in Ukraine is now in 'different stage.' Conflict is not at the 'high point' when there was constant shelling in Donbas. This is 'partly because both sides have become more conscious that this is a marathon, not a sprint.'

NEW: Western intelligence official says will be important to see if a vote on incorporating Russian-occupied Kherson region of Ukraine will be held on 11th Sept at same time as Russian regional elections. 'Even if it is absorbed into Russia, the Ukrainians will still attack them'

NEW: Looking further ahead, a western intelligence official told reporters, 'resupplying & rebuilding forces is going to be an essential part of what takes place over winter' in Ukraine. Key also to see if Ukraine continues to achieve a 'kinetic effect' behind Russian lines.'

NEW: a western intelligence official said Ukrainian attacks behind Russian lines are having 'a significant psychological effect on the Russian leadership.' They also said, at the moment, the war in Ukraine is at a 'moment of near operational standstill.'

https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1560592023383445504?s=20&t=zE1GXyRpIxWXg_2zgB2uDg

The western intelligence official said that attacks like these by Ukraine represent an ‘astute economy of effort’ & show Ukrainian special forces have ‘ability to operate from behind Russian lines,’ as well as ‘projecting from a distance.’

https://twitter.com/ej_burrows/status/1560592023383445504

The western official said Russian attacks on Ukraine are continuing: Kharkiv is now suffering ‘one of its most painful periods of the war.’ While Ukraine may not yet be able to retake ground, this assessment indicates that the west believes things are going badly for Russia.

https://twitter.com/ej_burrows/status/1560592023383445504

Putin also has other weapons - energy - which he is using to tilt the balance towards Russia. Pressuring the west with high energy prices, trying to weaken support for Ukraine to force Zelensky to negotiate. Russian losses in Ukraine may push him to escalate this strategy.