In conversations with military and civilian officials in Mykolaiv region- not a single one expects a significant 🇺🇦 counter offensive in the Kherson direction soon.
The most optimistic prediction was 'around November'.
The most optimistic prediction was 'around November'.
'We can only attack when we are ready', a military spokesperson said 'we need to train more troops, destroy Russian ammunition and logistics. And we need you to send us more weapons. Long range rocket systems and air defence to counter their advantage in aircraft.'
There is hard fighting in the region for sure, but the frontlines are mostly static. There are also not the concentrations 🇺🇦 troops and equipment you'd see if a counter was imminent.
Yes, there are minor 🇺🇦 tactical successes, but nothing to yet change the big picture.
Yes, there are minor 🇺🇦 tactical successes, but nothing to yet change the big picture.
Some are overhyping 🇷🇺 logistical problems here. Crossing when bridges are damaged is a hassle, but doable. 🇷🇺 control a large area around both river banks and have local air superiority.
This is not a contested river crossing in close artillery range ala Bilohorivka.
This is not a contested river crossing in close artillery range ala Bilohorivka.
There's a whole bunch of other factors down to things as mundane as the weather- but this theatre, and the war in general, is settling in for a long slog.
More to come in my report for @newlinesmag soon:
More to come in my report for @newlinesmag soon:
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