Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Aug 22, 2022 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Darya Dugina's assassination was almost certainly organised by the Russian FSB. Assuming this is true, then:

1. Order must've been explicitly/implicitly given by Putin
2. It was Darya, not Alexander who was the target
3. Alexander knew it ofc. He's just making show for a public
If Alexander was notified about the impending assassination of his daughter Darya, that explains the strangeness with changing cars. Alexander took *her* car, while she took his one. Why?

Most probably the plan was to present Alexander Dugin as the real target of assassination
That had an additional benefit. If we make the world believe that assassins targeted Alexander, but got Darya, the entire operation looks clumsy. It looks as if it is done by someone who does not have full control over the situation and over the territory. Not by Russians
It is the perceived clumsiness of the operation (they wanted to get a dad but got his daughter) that makes it look as if it is done by the Ukrainians. If it was done by the FSB, who fully control Moscow, they would kill the person whom they intended to kill

May be they did?
If Putin wants to escalate the war in Ukraine or political purges within Russia, he needs a pretext to justify his "outrage". Some "terrorist attack" preferably. And Putin can't just blow up residential houses with nonames: he had already used this trick before
An overly ambitious golden kid who:

1. Privately advertises *herself* as a person who knows how to fight a war in conversations with influential people
2. Wants to sell *herself* as the Russian nationalist leader
3. Damaged relations with her dad

would be a perfect candidature
It's not that Putin saw Darya as a threat. That's highly implausible. It's much more probable that he was actively looking for a sacrificial animal and sacrificing someone troublesome kinda makes sense. Solve two problems at once: big one (pretext for escalation) and a small one
Alexander was probably notified about this decision only after it was taken. But if it was the dad who suggested his daughter as a sacrificial animal, I wouldn't be much surprised. Perhaps, he knew what she's telling about the great and wise Dugin behind his back. The end
Damn, my finger is tired of blocking. I need to find a way to automatise the process

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More from @kamilkazani

Jun 26
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani's victory:

1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.

In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings

Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
Read 12 tweets
Jun 21
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.Image
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain

According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her Image
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.

Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 19
On the impending war with Iran

One thing you need to understand about wars is that very few engage into the long, protracted warfare on purpose. Almost every war of attrition was planned and designed as a short victorious blitzkrieg

And then everything went wrong
Consider the Russian war in Ukraine. It was not planned as a war. It was not thought of as a war. It was planned as a (swift!) regime change allowing to score a few points in the Russian domestic politics. And then everything went wrong
It would not be an exaggeration to say that planning a short victorious war optimised for the purposes of domestic politics is how you *usually* end up in a deadlock. That is the most common scenario of how it happens, practically speaking
Read 12 tweets
Jun 18
Hard to swallow pill

Global politics are usually framed in terms of kindergarten discourse (“good guys” vs “bad guys”) with an implication that you must provide “good guys” with boundless and unconditional support

BUT

Unconditional support is extremely corrupting, and turns the best of the best into the really nasty guys, and relatively fast
Part of the reason is that neither “bad” nor “good” guys are in fact homogenous, and present a spectrum of opinions and personalities. Which means that all of your designated “good guys” include a fair share of really, really nasty guys, almost by definition.

Purely good movements do not really exist
That is a major reason why limitless, unconditional, unquestioning support causes such a profound corrupting effect upon the very best movement. First, because that movement is not all
that purely good as you imagine (neither movement is),
Read 4 tweets
Jun 14
On Trump's birthday

Let's have a look at these four guys. Everything about them seems to be different. Religion. Ideology. Political regime. And yet, there is a common denominator uniting all:

Xi - 71 years old
Putin - 72 years old
Trump - 79 years old
Khamenei - 86 years old Image
Irrespectively of their political, ideological, religious and whatever differences, Russia, China, the United States, Iran are all governed by the old. Whatever regime, whatever government they have, it is the septuagenarians and octogenarians who have the final saying in it.
This fact is more consequential than it seems. To explain why, let me introduce the following idea:

Every society is a multiracial society, for every generation is a new race

Although we tend to imagine them as cohesive, all these countries are multigenerational -> multiracial
Read 7 tweets
Jun 7
In 1927, when Trotsky was being expelled from the Boslhevik Party, the atmosphere was very and very heated. One cavalry commander met Stalin at the stairs and threatened to cut off his ears. He even pretended he is unsheathing he sabre to proceed

Stalin shut up and said nothing
Like obviously, everyone around could see Stalin is super angry. But he still said nothing and did nothing

Which brings us to an important point:

Nobody becomes powerful accidentally
If Joseph Stalin seized the absolute control over the Communist Party, and the Soviet Union, the most plausible explanation is that Joseph Stalin is exercising some extremely rare virtues, that almost nobody on the planet Earth is capable of

Highly virtuous man, almost to the impossible level
Read 7 tweets

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