Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Aug 22 10 tweets 4 min read
Darya Dugina's assassination was almost certainly organised by the Russian FSB. Assuming this is true, then:

1. Order must've been explicitly/implicitly given by Putin
2. It was Darya, not Alexander who was the target
3. Alexander knew it ofc. He's just making show for a public
If Alexander was notified about the impending assassination of his daughter Darya, that explains the strangeness with changing cars. Alexander took *her* car, while she took his one. Why?

Most probably the plan was to present Alexander Dugin as the real target of assassination
That had an additional benefit. If we make the world believe that assassins targeted Alexander, but got Darya, the entire operation looks clumsy. It looks as if it is done by someone who does not have full control over the situation and over the territory. Not by Russians
It is the perceived clumsiness of the operation (they wanted to get a dad but got his daughter) that makes it look as if it is done by the Ukrainians. If it was done by the FSB, who fully control Moscow, they would kill the person whom they intended to kill

May be they did?
If Putin wants to escalate the war in Ukraine or political purges within Russia, he needs a pretext to justify his "outrage". Some "terrorist attack" preferably. And Putin can't just blow up residential houses with nonames: he had already used this trick before
An overly ambitious golden kid who:

1. Privately advertises *herself* as a person who knows how to fight a war in conversations with influential people
2. Wants to sell *herself* as the Russian nationalist leader
3. Damaged relations with her dad

would be a perfect candidature
It's not that Putin saw Darya as a threat. That's highly implausible. It's much more probable that he was actively looking for a sacrificial animal and sacrificing someone troublesome kinda makes sense. Solve two problems at once: big one (pretext for escalation) and a small one
Alexander was probably notified about this decision only after it was taken. But if it was the dad who suggested his daughter as a sacrificial animal, I wouldn't be much surprised. Perhaps, he knew what she's telling about the great and wise Dugin behind his back. The end
Damn, my finger is tired of blocking. I need to find a way to automatise the process

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More from @kamilkazani

Aug 24
Regarding Darya Dugina. Many are calling her a "child". But she wasn't. She was a 30 years war old propagandist calling for "tougher", "less forgiving" mode of war. Publicly she acted as an aspiring Julius Streicher, trying to surpass her dad. Privately she mocked all this agenda
Let me show you some more innocent children to cry about later. This 62 year old child is Russian war propagandist Sergey Mardan
This is film director Karen Shakhnazarov
Read 10 tweets
Aug 23
Scientific rationality is overrated, evolutionary rationality is underrated. If such behaviour is common, it suggests it is evolutionary stable = rational

Tribe needs mythology to unite it. And mythology must be dumbed down for the entire tribe to get it, otherwise it won't work
It is absolutely rational to believe in some dumbed down crap. Reality is incomprehensible in all of its complexity anyway. And when you start adding 1st nuance, 2nd nuance, 3rd nuance, it can't unite the tribe anymore. Working tribal mythologies are very dumb. Hence, rational
That's a common mechanism of social changes. When a party is small, its myth is nuanced, complicated. But once it expands, it *must* dumb it down to unite everyone. As a result, the old core (inner party) has a nuanced myth and the newcomers (outer party) have dumbed down version
Read 5 tweets
Aug 23
No, it's more like

"There is destructive energy in the air this month and it will manifest someway. So I must take preemptive action and trigger a crisis *of my choice*. All the bad energy gonna flow there and voila, it's all gone"

Very rational from the archaic perspective Image
That's very easy to understand. In some countries they trigger forest fires for this very reason. There's lots of dry wood in the forest, so we create a controllable fire artificially. Otherwise, we'd have to wait for the uncontrollable one, which is more dangerous Image
In other places they provoke the avalanches with special cannons for this very reason. There's *objectively* lots of snow on the mountains, so if we just let it lie there, it will go down in an uncontrollable avalanche. Creating a controllable one artificially is way better Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 23
Here we have a problem:

Most analysts would dismiss a hypothesis that numerology plays a big role in Russian scheduling of key events (invasion, important political assassination, etc)

While it is almost certainly true.

Russia is run by state security. Who are not "rational"
Let me get it straight. There are plenty of absolutely "rational" (Western-style) people in Russian bureaucracy. They're smart, they're following the recent Western intellectual fashion, mimic the language, the conceptual framework

But they're not rulers. They're servants
Russia has high ranked officials who would easily communicate with people on the US campuses and fit in well. *These people do not make decisions*. They follow orders, that's it. When hearing an order they consider dumb/counterproductive/dangerous, they just bow and execute it
Read 11 tweets
Aug 23
For high quality investigative journalism from Russia I strongly recommend following the Агентство (Agentstvo) media. They're not super big or super famous, and that's good. World famous media do not feel evolutionary pressure to do their homework. These guys do, and do it well Image
Their first material - on Shoygu was the work of art. Strongly recommended

proekt.media/portrait/serge…
This one may be even more interesting. On the Putin's mortality. What do we know of his health, of which doctors visit him and how often, which procedures he is taking (including baths from deer antlers), what and how is reported in media

proekt.media/investigation/…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 23
Some are asking, why should even care about Darya Dugina's assassination? Because:

1. It is almost certainly the FSB false flag operation
2. Most likely, it will be used as a pretext for strikes that had been already pre-scheduled for the Ukrainian Independence Day this Thursday
Once again. Strikes later this week are highly likely, they have must been prescheduled long ago. Most probably, on Thursday-Friday. It's quite probable that Putin wants to scale up and sacrificed Dugina to needs justify future strikes as counter-terrorist action or sth like that
Assuming this is true, why was Dugina chosen as a sacrificial lamb? Presidential plenipotentiary Schegolev's speech on her funerals gives some idea:

1. Alexander (and Darya) Dugina were nobody in the Russian system of power
2. But the West believed they were somebody

AMAZING Image
Read 13 tweets

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