Let's be honest, what Yeltsin did in 1991 certainly had an *element* of military coup, to say the least. Yeah, it's kinda nice he had crowds on his side. But the fact that a few army regiments and lots of KGB joined him didn't hurt either. Peaceful protests are hugely overrated
In fact, it was the coup element of 1991 that determined the face of the Russian army leadership till around 1996. Upstarts with no relevant experience, credentials or network heavily dominated the military command. Why? They just happened to switch to Yeltsin in August 1991
I see why media and academia tend to wildly exaggerate the power of peaceful protests. But honestly I'm sick of that BS. For a regime change to happen you need at least few regiments to switch sides. If that doesn't happen, regime not gonna change. Army always beats the "people"
That's one of my problems with post 9/11 narrative. Peaceful protests have no effect in authoritarian countries. Meanwhile, anti-government violence is delegitimised and labelled as "terrorism". Any meaningful resistance to Putin for example would absolutely qualify as terrorism
So when you are calling for Russian people to rebel, you must be aware you are spreading the terrorist propaganda. Because you are calling for political violence (=terrorism). Non-terrorist behaviour would be just sit at home and write sad posts in Facebook. Very commendable
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If possible, I would also like to ask for Mikhail Khodorkovsky's @mbk_center comments regarding the following blogpost of prominent nationalist Yegor Kholmogorov, who is now calling for the full destruction of Ukrainians as a nation
Putin-worshipping among the Western far-right is not so much a result of his propaganda as of their neediness. They're are very needy. They're desperate to project their hopes and dreams on a saviour like figure. He doesn't need to do much, their imagination gonna do all the work
Regarding Darya Dugina. Many are calling her a "child". But she wasn't. She was a 30 years war old propagandist calling for "tougher", "less forgiving" mode of war. Publicly she acted as an aspiring Julius Streicher, trying to surpass her dad. Privately she mocked all this agenda
Let me show you some more innocent children to cry about later. This 62 year old child is Russian war propagandist Sergey Mardan
Scientific rationality is overrated, evolutionary rationality is underrated. If such behaviour is common, it suggests it is evolutionary stable = rational
Tribe needs mythology to unite it. And mythology must be dumbed down for the entire tribe to get it, otherwise it won't work
It is absolutely rational to believe in some dumbed down crap. Reality is incomprehensible in all of its complexity anyway. And when you start adding 1st nuance, 2nd nuance, 3rd nuance, it can't unite the tribe anymore. Working tribal mythologies are very dumb. Hence, rational
That's a common mechanism of social changes. When a party is small, its myth is nuanced, complicated. But once it expands, it *must* dumb it down to unite everyone. As a result, the old core (inner party) has a nuanced myth and the newcomers (outer party) have dumbed down version
"There is destructive energy in the air this month and it will manifest someway. So I must take preemptive action and trigger a crisis *of my choice*. All the bad energy gonna flow there and voila, it's all gone"
That's very easy to understand. In some countries they trigger forest fires for this very reason. There's lots of dry wood in the forest, so we create a controllable fire artificially. Otherwise, we'd have to wait for the uncontrollable one, which is more dangerous
In other places they provoke the avalanches with special cannons for this very reason. There's *objectively* lots of snow on the mountains, so if we just let it lie there, it will go down in an uncontrollable avalanche. Creating a controllable one artificially is way better
Most analysts would dismiss a hypothesis that numerology plays a big role in Russian scheduling of key events (invasion, important political assassination, etc)
While it is almost certainly true.
Russia is run by state security. Who are not "rational"
Let me get it straight. There are plenty of absolutely "rational" (Western-style) people in Russian bureaucracy. They're smart, they're following the recent Western intellectual fashion, mimic the language, the conceptual framework
But they're not rulers. They're servants
Russia has high ranked officials who would easily communicate with people on the US campuses and fit in well. *These people do not make decisions*. They follow orders, that's it. When hearing an order they consider dumb/counterproductive/dangerous, they just bow and execute it
For high quality investigative journalism from Russia I strongly recommend following the Агентство (Agentstvo) media. They're not super big or super famous, and that's good. World famous media do not feel evolutionary pressure to do their homework. These guys do, and do it well
Their first material - on Shoygu was the work of art. Strongly recommended
This one may be even more interesting. On the Putin's mortality. What do we know of his health, of which doctors visit him and how often, which procedures he is taking (including baths from deer antlers), what and how is reported in media